Tuesday, July 16, 2019
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the latest analysis in my US housing market analysis that concludes in a detailed multi-year trend forecast that covers the following in bold
- Current State
- Momentum Analysis
- US ECONOMY - GDP
- Unemployment
- Inflation
- Producer Prices Index
- Yield Curve
- US Debt
- QE4EVER!
- DEMOGRAPHICS
- US Home Builders Index (XHB)
- US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator
- US House Prices 2019 to 2021 Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Peering into the Mists of Time
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Harry_Dent
I hate politics. I hate that it’s inescapable. What I don’t hate is the investment opportunities the 2020 election will present us.So I hate, and then embrace…
And with the 2020 election fast approaching, we face a major tipping point… economically, politically, historically.
That means NOW is the time to prepare to protect your business endeavors and investments.
NOW is the time to position to profit.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
What Would Happen If Venezuela & the Middle East Couldn’t Access Oil? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
We’re hyper-focused on politics at the moment because, well, Trump. If he weren’t the president, with unshakeable support from one faction while inducing loathing from another, then the 2020 election cycle might be a touch less fanatical. But he is the president, and we’ve got Democratic hopefuls pummeling each other as they move to the left, promising many nw programs with questionable funding sources.It’s as if the laws of supply and demand have been suspended.
Maybe they have when it comes to politics, but back in the real world, supply and demand do matter. And this cold reality could put the energy market in the deep freeze over the next 12 months.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Strong Dollar is good for Small Businesses / Politics / US Dollar
By: BATR
The Trump economy has provided a much needed optimism. While confidence for the future has grown over the meager performance under Obama, the fabric of prosperity has not yet achieved universal reach. Remember that an America First economy thrives on a strong dollar. So it is unfortunate that the establishment is pushing President Trump into favoring an internationalist trading system that hinders a domestic small business economy. The corporatists on Wall Street hate independent business.
In order to combat the export of American jobs, much higher tariffs should be imposed. Raising the value of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve notes) would put an end to the oversea search for the cheapest labor regime. International trade that diminishes domestic output has been the primary cause of destroying our national autonomy. For those who are in denial, admitting this fact is a major threat to their cartel of global interdependency.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and gold stocks especially continue to shrug off bits and pieces of bad news.
No escalation in the trade war? The selloff lasted one day and the sector rebounded strongly the following day.
Strong headline jobs number? Again, the weakness was a buying opportunity.
This past week there was more.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
You should completely understand that the market is dangerously overvalued and that global economic growth has slowed to a crawl along with S&P 500 earnings. However, you must also be wondering when the massive overhang of unprecedented debt levels, artificial market manipulations, and the anemic economy will finally shock Wall Street to a brutal reality.
Artificially-low bond yields are prolonging the life of this terminally-ill market. In fact, record-low borrowing costs have been the lynchpin for perpetuating the illusion. Therefore, what will finally pull the plug on this market’s life support system is spiking corporate bond yields, which will manifest from the bursting of the $5.4 trillion BBB, Junk bond and leveraged loan markets. And, for that to occur, you will first need an outright US recession and/or a bonafide inflation scare.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Sumeet_Manhas
You may have seen the film Around the World in 80 Days, but what about going around the world yourself in just one day? It is something that you are going to be able to do in the very near future thanks to SAMAD Aerospace and Supreme Jets, which is a private charter jet business. Both companies have signed an agreement to create a service that is going to give private jet customers the ability to use hybrid-electric jets to enjoy a door-to-door worldwide air travel service. And the best news is that this is going to be available in just five years! Read on to discover more about this Supreme jets review.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up our good friend David Smith of The Morgan Report and MoneyMetals.com columnist joins me for a wonderful discussion on the state of the precious metals, an exciting new silver backed cryptocurrency and when he believes silver will finally play catch up to gold’s rally. So be sure you stick around for my conversation with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.
As Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress this week, investors became more confident that they will soon see interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrials traded up to a new record high while commodities and precious metals also gained strength on Powell’s dovish comments.
Gold prices currently trade at $1,408 an ounce, up 0.6% since last Friday’s close. Silver is up 0.7% this week and currently settles at $15.18. Platinum is putting in a weekly gain of 1.7% to check in at $827. And finally, palladium is off slightly from record highs put in earlier in the week. It trades at $1,547 per ounce, down 1.5% now for the week as of this Friday morning recording.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ruchi_Mahajan
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
If you are bullish on gold prices right now, you are running with the crowd. That is perfectly fine, unless the crowd is running in the wrong direction. Or, maybe the race hasn’t started yet.
With all of the talk about fundamentals for gold, it would be nice if someone could set their emotions aside and look at some facts that might bring some clarity to the subject.
Nearly every recent article about gold includes some reference to one or more of the following items: interest rates, trade wars, Indian gold demand, slowing economy, recession fears, the stock market, housing starts, another world war, terrorism, social unrest, etc., etc.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Raymond_Matison
Are you still in the market? Markets for equities and bonds have been struggling over the last one and a half years. Few real gains have been made – and it has taken an important policy reversal by the FED just to keep the markets levitated at current levels. Neither earnings reports nor financial statistics seem to matter; charts have not mattered; the state of our domestic economy does not seem to matter either, as global trade, tariffs and sanctions are ignored in market valuations which remain scandalously unrealistic. Negative earnings guidance is at record levels, but that too does not matter. Both market fundamentals and charts continue to be completely ignored. Every money manager simply follows announced guidance action of the Federal Reserve, and evaluates their statements to the point of analyzing missing or modified words from previous FED press releases.
During the Cold War, its belligerents developed a theory and practice to deal with the very real risk of a nuclear conflagration. The resulting adopted strategy was called Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. The operating theory was that neither nuclear power, Russia nor the United States, would initiate a nuclear attack while remaining vulnerable, because of the presumption of a vigorous response in kind, destroying both countries and perhaps making life impossible on the whole planet from radiation fallout.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Over the last 10 years, the yields on the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury bond have foretold the path of the S&P 500.
Money flow trends between the bond market and the equity market, over the past decade, have given investors a heads-up on the trading direction of the S&P 500.
The swings toward fixed income (2011 to mid-2012, 2014 to mid-2016, Q4 2018 to mid-2019) have produced higher bond prices and lower yields as money managers balance safety and risk.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years. We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.
Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most market commentators remain confused, flirting between being bearish or bullish usually AFTER the fact, AFTER the market has risen or fallen. Take when I last looked at the Dow and the market was in a downtrend eyeing an assault on Dow 25,000. At the time the reasoning was 'surprise' failure to resolve the US China trade war for why stocks had fallen. All without understanding the underlying mega-trend drivers that remain constant regardless of what Trump announces or tweets or threatens, which are the trends towards war with China, Climate Change, the Inflation mega-trend (money printing), AI mega-trend and Africa's population explosion amongst others that come to mind. All of which were in motion BEFORE Trump came to office and will remain so for decades after Trump leaves office.
Monday, July 15, 2019
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Dumitru_Midon
The summertime is a good season for the entertainment industry. Many everyday activities such as holidays and day trips are all the more common thanks to the influx of children off from school.
For any business which works in the entertainment industry, this is a good time financially. However, if you’re a business who is looking to expand during the summer, or a new start-up attempting to get a foot in this industry, you need to know why.
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Sunday, July 14, 2019
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months. Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.
Post 1: NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP
Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM
Our research team now believes that August 19 ( 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for. Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels. We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.
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Sunday, July 14, 2019
Art Laffer On The Fed, What Would Milton Friedman Say? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Art Laffer, the supply-side guru and recent recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom has caused yet another stir among the chattering classes. Last week, he told John Catsimatidis on AM 970 New York that “The Fed shouldn’t be independent of the administration. Never should be. None of those people were elected. They were appointed.” He repeated those sentiments on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning.
What would my good friend Milton Friedman say? Well, unfortunately, we don’t know for certain because Milton is no longer with us. That said, Nobelist Friedman weighed in on the issue of central bank independence on several occasions. Indeed, an essay he penned in 1962 was titled “Should there be an Independent Monetary Authority?” His essay appeared in In Search of a Monetary Constitution, which was published by Harvard University Press and was edited by my collaborator, the late Leland B. Yeager. Friedman was unambiguous. He concluded that “The case against a fully independent central bank is strong indeed.”
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Sunday, July 14, 2019
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold / Economics / Recession 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed, and find out what do they imply for the gold market.
How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. So let’s focus on the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed.
The first model is the smoothed recession probabilities for the United States developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger based on the research published in the International Economic Review and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. The odds are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
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Sunday, July 14, 2019
The Problem with Keynesian Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote:
“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”
I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as an economic theory.