Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
China’s been playing hardball with the U.S. over trade talks. There’s good reason: they’re gunning for the title of Top Global Economic Power, above the U.S. and other players.They’re embracing the short-term pain to win the long-term fight.
But…
They have growing problems, with slowing growth and exports, and we’ve heard much about this lately from Main Street. But those are only symptoms.
Deep down, they have a demographic problem, an overinvestment-in-infrastructure problem, and a real estate problem. Today, let’s talk about that last one.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
US Overdosing on Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
On Friday, I talked about how the last 11 years have been no better than cumulative GDP during the Great Depression (1929-1940). I’ll talk more about that on Thursday. Today I want to point out the biggest difference between this Economic Winter Season and the one 80 years ago…That is: Central banks!
Thanks to their interference, our massive debt bubble didn’t deleverage as it should have!
Total debt peaked at $58.4 trillion, or four times GDP, in the first quarter of 2009 and just barely deleveraged in the financial and consumer sectors during the Great Recession.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Last Friday I talked about how we have been in a muted Economic Winter Season. We may have had the greatest stock market bubble ever, but our economic “recovery” has been the weakest on record, despite the strongest, globally-concerted stimulus ever.Here’s a chart comparing the real GDP for the 11 years from the 1929 top through the 1940 bottom to the 11 years from 2007 to 2018.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market rallies, it never ceases to amaze me how popular crash-analogues can be. The 1937 analogue has been quite popular recently, constantly shared and reshared on social media and trading blogs.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
KitKat's "Make a Break for It" 2019 Travel Goodies Promo, Has Anyone Won Anything? / ConsumerWatch / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
KitKat's 2019 promotion that went live online on the 1st of Feb, promoting 10 top prizes of holidays worth £8,000 each to be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a Kitkat packet has just 10 days left to run. Also there were supposedly 100 getaway goodies to be won EVERY DAY just by entering the codes found on the inside of Kitkat wrappers which means this 'should' have been an easy to win promotion.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Economics of Happiness / Politics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
It always strikes me as odd that the happiest countries tend to be in cold-as-hell places like Scandinavia and Canada. It’s kind of similar stateside, too.This weekend I saw a recent study by WalletHub that shows that the happiest states in the U.S. tend to be in the upper Midwest region – you know, where the Arctic vortex comes on through! In order of happiness, we have Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
Those in the less-frigid-but-still-cold Northeast are also generally happier. We’re also talking just south of there: Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. And of course, the west coast is largely happy, except Oregon. The Rockies also, except Wyoming. And then there is the Southwest… Well, except for New Mexico.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Average American Can’t Save Enough to Retire / Politics / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
How much money do you need to retire?Answering this question is one reason a good financial advisor is worth every penny you pay them. But let’s talk about some generalities.
Say you want to stop working at 65. You’re in good health and your family tends toward long lives. You expect to reach 90, having been retired for 25 years.
Will Social Security alone be enough? Probably not.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Could a Lurch Toward Socialism Sink Democrats in 2020? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chief of Staff for President Barack Obama and now Mayor of Chicago, is worried about socialism. Of course, he’s a proponent of redistribution and collectivist initiatives such as socialized medicine. He just thinks it’s bad politics.
He believes too many Americans aren’t yet keen on overt socialists running for office.
According to Emanuel, Democratic candidates and operatives should distance themselves from using the word “socialism” and find other ways to describe their agenda.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market Ready for Take-Off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Is the S&P 500 (SPX) on the verge of a sustained upside breakout as it pushes through multiple prior failed rally peaks just above 2800? This week should provide some answers.
Actually, a sustained climb above 2832 (on a closing basis) also will answer the question we have been asking in these weekly articles for the past four weeks: Will the powerful advance from the Dec 26 low at 2346.58 be stymied in the 2775 to 2832 resistance zone?
This zone is the area that measures 76.4% of the entire prior Sep-Dec correction -- what we're calling the "Fibonacci Recovery Price Resistance Zone" -- and in the last 20 trading days the SPX has probed but failed to hurdle the upper boundary (2832) of this zone no less than five times!
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's my quick look at the VIX
VIX
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
Elliott Wave International is opening the doors to their entire lineup of trader-focused Pro Services -- but only for a week! It's a ticket that's worth $1,229.
Starting Wednesday, March 20, you get a week of free access to every forecast, every chart, every piece of expert analysis for 50+ markets -- stocks, forex, cryptos, gold, oil and more.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This research post highlights what we believe to be a unique price anomaly setup in many of the US major markets this week. Our research
suggests that April 21, or near this date, will be an important price inflection point base level for the US stock markets. We believe a unique price base will begin to form near this date and a bigger price move in May/June 2019 will unfold.
Our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting the rotation in the US stock market may stay somewhat muted before this move on April 21 begins. The ADL predictive modeling system is one of our proprietary price modeling utilities that our research uses to identify key levels of future support and resistance as well as to watch for “price anomalies” that setup. Price anomalies are where the current price level of any symbol is greatly diverted from the ADL predictive price level. When this happens, the price will usually “revert” back to near the ADL levels at some point in the immediate future – sometimes setting up a great trading opportunity.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
British Car Maker Aston Martin License to Thrill No More / Companies / Auto Sector
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn
The luxury British car maker Aston Martin has learned a hard lesson; namely, diamonds may be forever, but the market for $400,000 cars is not. A February 28 Guardian article confirms that since going public on the London Stock Exchange last October, Aston Martin's shares have plummeted 40% amidst billions of dollars in losses. To be fair, some of the loss can be attributed to the company's IPO costs, but we believe that where there's smoke, there's fire. The IPO, in and of itself, is a splendid signal that the credit cycle, and the positive social mood which fueled a massive expansion of credit and rising stock values, is undergoing a bearish shift. A fall in Aston Martin's fortunes equally represents a fall out of favor of one of the most recognizable bull market icons -- Bond, James Bond.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Coming Stocks Bear Market Will Be Especially Painful for the Boomers / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
My back-of-the-napkin math says retirement accounts are at least 50% invested in equity index funds.
Some of you are now asking, “What’s the problem? All those index funds have come back. Everybody is back to where they started.”
Not so fast, Jack.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After gold’s plunge on Thursday, it made a comeback attempt on Friday. But that erased only half of Thursday’s vigorous decline. The situation in silver and gold miners doesn’t provide much ground for optimism either. The silent scream we wrote about in the Wednesday’s Alert for our subscribers brought serious repercussions. Both immediately and step-by-step as in a trainwreck in slow motion. Either way you look at it, just in time for our subscribers to reap the benefits. Today, we will devote extraordinary attention to the USD Index and the 2012-2013 – today link in gold.
In Thursday’s Part I, we shared with you the short-term check on precious metals sector health. In Friday’s Part II, we examined whether the most recent developments changed the long-term view anyhow. Those articles were a limited sample of exclusive care our subscribers get on an everyday basis. Today, we will follow up with even more of such a peek under the hood - another sample of what our subscribers already enjoyed on Thursday. Whether you are reading this article on our website or elsewhere on the Internet, we will now share today’s full picture with you, the visitor, on the USD Index including the Brexit tremors. On top, we will update you on the short-term implications of the 2012-2013 – today analogy. That will be the cherry on the cake. We’ll also treat you to Thursday’s summary that remains up-to-date also today.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Development Should Guide US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty Review / Politics / Phillippines
By: Dan_Steinbock
In times of great uncertainty, strategic ambiguity offers little clarity. The review of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty should be guided by the quest for sovereignty and economic development.During his recent visit in the Philippines, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad met Murad Ebrahim, the Filipino Muslim rebel leader who became a regional governor under the Malaysian-brokered peace deal. In the course of the meeting, Mahathir told to Murad that “it’s easy to shoot and kill, but it’s difficult to develop. If there is peace, then everything will come.”
Mahathir’s words offer guidance in intra-country divides, but also in inter-country friction, including the review of the decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Is The Stock Market Finally Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.
The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet, the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Split Stock Market Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Warning from leading indexes. Top of B-wave possible.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It’s been years since the gold and silver topped out in 2011. We have been waiting for a new bottom form and a new bull market to emerge for nearly 8 years. In this article, I’m going to compare palladium, gold, platinum, and silver and show you which of these precious metals I feel is the best long-term investment and also the best trade for 2019.
The analysis presented below is based on technical analysis using previous significant highs, and Fibonacci extensions. Both of these techniques work exceptionally well for predicting price targets both to the upside and also price corrections to the downside. If you have never used Fibonacci retracement or extensions in your trading I highly recommend learning more about them. I have no doubt it will improve your market price projection targets for your investments. I have found this technique to be the number one best trading tool for projecting future price movements in all asset classes.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Argentina's Peso, Nothing But Trouble / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
This week, Argentina released its February inflation statistics. Inflation spiked, again. Indeed, the official annual inflation rate jumped to 51.3%/yr.
While this spike caught most observers off balance, it didn’t surprise me. Each day, I accurately measure Argentina’s inflation using high-frequency data and Purchasing Power Parity theory. By my measure, Argentina’s annual inflation rate is 100%/yr (see the accompanying chart). That’s nearly double the official rate reported for the end of February.
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