Wednesday, March 13, 2019

NBER’s Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’. This is what more and more analysts think about the US recession. We invite you to read our today’s article about the NBER’s recession indicators and find out whether the economic slump is really coming soon – and what it all means for the gold market.

Talks about a possible economic slump are getting louder. More and more analysts forecast the US recession by 2020. For example, according to December JP Morgan’s “real-time quant monitor”, the risk of a recession jumped to 35 percent , the highest in series history and up from 16 percent back in March 2018. Similarly, the respondents to the January CNBC Fed Survey put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 26 percent, the third straight increase and the highest since January 2016. And according to the February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey, the odds of recession starting within the next 12 months was about 25 percent, the highest level (with the exception of January 2019) since October 2011 and up from just 13 percent last year. In Reuters poll, the median probability of a recession in the next year rose from 20 percent in January to 25 percent in February. The outlook for 2020 is even dimmer, as the odds of recession over the next two years is 40 percent. Last but not least, the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters puts the odds that economy will be shrinking in a year’s time at 23 percent, the highest level since 2008.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 / Economics / Recession 2019

By: F_F_Wiley

In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending that’s financed by external “injections” instead of prior savings.

As part of our argument, we shared the chart below, which compares TSP-derived spending on the left (financed by fresh bank credit) to spending that merely recycles savings, such as the prior domestic savings category on the right.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

As I now provide analysis to over 5000 subscribers between my services on Elliottwavetrader, The Market Pinball Wizard, and FATrader, I am the beneficiary of much feedback from various segments of the financial markets. In fact, since we have over 500 money manager clients, I see a lot of what the predominant thinking is on “the street.”

Of late, I have been pointing to the potential for the dollar to rise to the region of 99-100DXY and TLT to take us up towards the 131-136 region. And, it seems many on “the street” are on the wrong side of the boat on this one. In fact, when I wrote a recent article on the TLT potentially rallying quite strongly in the coming months, I experienced quite a bit of pushback in the comment section to that article.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Is Britain At The Edge Of A Political Cliff? / Currencies / British Pound

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news that Theresa May was unable to convince members of Parliament to even consider her current deal as well as the future political and societal consequences of any failure to move ahead with an orderly Brexit deal.  The question before traders and investors is how will this reflect in the global markets and how will currencies react to this new?

The GBP (British Pound) appears to be poised to a breakdown move aligning with our Fibonacci Arc structures.  These arc structures help us to understand where “inflection points” are likely in the markets and where bigger moves may initiate.  The current Arc level, near current price, is indicating that any failure of an upside move will likely prompt a downside move to near 0.739 – or lower.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has gone nowhere over the past 2 weeks. This is normal because most of the time, the stock indices simply aren’t as volatile as other markets like commodities. The big news today is that “bond king” Jeff Gundlach says that the stock market is still in a bear market, and that this is just a bear market rally.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my 6th analysis in a series of 10 that concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for the stock market.

December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialse, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Principle Book Free Access / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

90% of traders throw in the towel. One of the main reasons is because they don't have a method.

Elliott Wave Principle is one of the most popular investment method books ever published. Now, we're working with Elliott Wave International to celebrate the book's 40th anniversary (has it really been that long??!) by giving you free access to Part 1 of the 2-part bestseller.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

US Federal Borrowing Crosses the Rubicon / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

A year ago, Republicans in control of Congress suspended the cap on federal borrowing. The limit was automatically re-imposed on March 1st. Politicians now have a few months to hammer out legislation to raise the cap as the Treasury employs “extraordinary measures” to fend off default.

The federal deficit is mushrooming once again. The 2017 tax cuts have taken a bite out of receipts at the IRS and economic growth has not met expectations.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

The $TSX.CA Composite Index Cycles & Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly, the index has rallied with other world indices trending higher into the June 2008 highs. It then corrected the bullish cycle as did most other world indices. The index ended that larger degree correction in March 2009. It is at this point where the index corrected the whole all time up bullish cycle. Thus the March 2009 lows is from where this cycle and swing analysis will begin. It appears to be a new beginning.

Secondly, from the 2009 lows the index shows a 5 swing higher sequence that favors further upside. Price has reached and exceeded the 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of the 2009 to 2011 bullish cycle. That happened in September 2014 under the red swing count. This area was also seen in the preferred blue count the 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci extension was reached and slightly exceeded in January 2018.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Multi Story Car Park - First Time Parking! / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: HGR

So far I have gone out of my way to avoid parking my Land Rover Discovery Sport, large SUV in a multi-story car park for the obvious reasons I don't want to end up getting the sides or bumbers scraped or worse getting stuck especually as many of these multi-story car parks that dot the landscape were constructed when cars were signfiicantly smaller, where now it's definetly not straight forward to park a large 7 seater SUV, that and this being my first attempt means I made the whole process that much more difficult by failing to follow the arrows properly.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Boeing (BA): Forming the Biggest Peak Since 2003 lows / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The Stock is trading within a very technical area and it is showing a very clear 5 waves advance Elliott wave structure from its 2013 lows. When a 5 waves structure can be seen we always should be careful and pay attention to the direction of the 5 waves. Accordingly, to the Elliott Wave Theory after a 5 waves move there should be a pullback in 3 waves coming soon. The Boeing Company has been in the news lately because of an unfortunate accident related to their top-selling Aircraft which is the 737 MAX 8 jet. An Ethiopian Airlines flight crashed on Sunday only five months after the Lion Air Boeing crash in Indonesia killing 189 people.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Will Cryptocurrencies Replace Gold? / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The World Gold Council has issued quite a few interesting papers recently. In this edition of the Gold News Monitor, we discuss the most provocative ones. Such as the money worthiness of gold compared to Bitcoin. Or the ongoing gold repatriation trend as Romania recently joined the fray. What kind of learnings can the precious metals investors draw here?

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

3 Things That Don’t Affect Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It’s important to understand Gold’s fundamentals as it will help us confirm a new bull market.

To this point, Gold’s rallies have failed to make higher highs and higher lows because, although there has been improvement in fundamentals, the fundamentals have not turned bullish yet.

The technical trigger will be Gold and gold stock outperformance of the stock market which will likely precede the fundamental catalyst of Fed rate cuts. The start of rate cuts will indicate declining real interest rates which is the key driver of bull markets in Gold.

With that said, here are some things that do not impact the price of Gold.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Authentic American Populism / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

In the age of President Trump the public characterization of an American First movement bears the sharpest criticism and condemnation from the Deep State and foreign enemies. Those sincere patriots who retain a valid historic understanding of the post World War II era, recognize that the New World Order was the actual victory of that contrived conflict. With the death of the American Republic, the globalist international community of oligarchs has imposed a planetary enslavement. Part of their goal is to obliterate independent nation states and destroy indigenous cultures. Genuine populism is the foe of this elite demonic crime syndicate, who is promulgating hell on earth.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert discusses recent movements in the markets. In life, there are a distant events from one's past that embed themselves in one's memory banks in a manner and forcefulness that is directly related to their personal or historical importance. The birth of one's first child, one's first love affair or an athletic achievement fall into the "personal" category; the end of WWII, the first lunar landing or the assassination of JFK are examples of "historical" events. These events in one's lives are so crystallized in their vividness that one is many times able to recall sounds and scents from those exact points in time. Stated another way, how many times has a person had a certain song come on the radio and been memory-jogged back 20 or 30 years? In my case, the scent of hot dogs and popcorn bring to life hockey arenas and dressing rooms while the song "The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down" brings me immediately to the old Hamilton Mountain Arena where the Dixie Beehives won the Ontario Junior "B" championship in 1970. Fast-forward to 2019 and there is yet one more memory-etching that is transpiring: the COT report.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

This Stock Market Pop Could Fizzle Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US stock market opened today with mixed opening prices.  The crash of the Ethiopian Boeing passenger jet prompted selling in the Blue Chips, particularly in Boeing (BA).  As of right now, the US stock markets have recovered quite well and have pushed higher.

We believe this upward rotation may be short-lived and want to highlight the two Engulfing Bearish candlestick patterns that have formed recently.  The first, near the October 2018 highs, prompted a very deep price correction that ended on December 24, 2018.  The more recent, completed just on March 8, 2019, is setting up resistance just above recent highs ($175.95) and is still a very valid sell signal for the QQQ.  Unless the price is able to breach the $175.95 level over the next few weeks, this Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern is technically the key pattern driving future expectations for the price.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Consequences of US Dollar Lost Global Reserve Status / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, rigged market pricing, and corrupted demand functions. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK banksters have created the USTreasury bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of astounding persistent magnificent QE abuse and hidden corruption. The so-called financial stimulus is actually hyper monetary inflation, which has destroyed the bond market.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: EWI

The pinhole puncture in the global "Fintech" bubble keeps growing, despite drastic attempts to seal it shut. The most recent and radical attempt occurred on February 18, when BaFin, Germany's financial regulator, issued a temporary short-selling ban in Wirecard after its shares plunged 40% in less than three weeks. Wrote one news source, "Germany bans speculative attacks on Wirecard stock", as if those shorting the market were wielding pitch forks and lobbing actual threats against the stock's upside.

Incredibly, vilifying short sellers is as old as the market itself. The first short-selling ban occurred in 1610, after the Dutch East India Company crashed. Notorious short-seller Isaac Le Maire was barred from the market, leaving Amsterdam a pariah. In the 1790s, Napoleon Bonaparte charged short sellers with treason during the financial chaos of the French Revolution.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear a tremendous interview with Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig weighs in again and offers a concise and clear explanation on what’s been happening in the broken and rigged silver futures markets. And also tells us why he sees 2019 being a similar setup to what we saw in gold and silver back in 2010 and 2011 when the metals went on an historic run. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.

Markets got roiled this week on some downbeat economic reports and a surge in the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar Index broke out to a 21-month high on Thursday after the European Central Bank came out swinging with more stimulus measures. The ECB indicated it intends to leave ultra-low interest rates in place at least through early 2020. That coupled with bleak new forecasts for European economic growth helped drag down the euro and give life to the dollar on foreign exchange markets.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits / Economics / Recession

By: Dan_Amerman

If there is another recession in the next 1-2 years, then the Fed is highly likely to respond by swiftly moving Fed Funds rates back down to zero percent.

One likely result is that millions of investors will lose 83% or more of their future income over a period of years.

The money won't all actually be lost, however. Instead, much of it will be brought forward in time and passed through to a different group of investors as profits - in concentrated form.

In this analysis, we will focus on understanding how an unintentional - but necessary - byproduct of the Fed's dilemma and known plans when we enter the next recession, will be to strip wealth from some investors, and to bring that wealth forward in time to be "caught" by other investors.