Thursday, March 07, 2019
The Importance of Financial Planning for Companies / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018
The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The recent rally showed quite a bit of promise.
Gold stocks surged past their long-term moving averages while breadth indicators surpassed all prior bear market peaks (excluding 2016). 71% of the HUI and 81% of GDXJ closed above the 200-day moving average.
GDX and GDXJ looked to be on their way to $25 and $37, with Gold approaching $1360/oz and those breadth figures on the way to hitting 90%.
However, the stock market rebound pushed past its initial resistance and precious metals reversed course yet again before hitting those targets.
Other than 1985-1987 there has never been a bull market in precious metals without their simultaneous outperformance of the stock market.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market’s Rally Slowing Down. Expect a Surge in Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s a >50% probability that volatility will spike in the next few weeks.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market Beware The Ides Of March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.
At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Learn How to Organize Your Personal Finances Once and for All / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Gold and Stocks Bear Market Rallies: The Nascent Narcotic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reflects on the implications of recent market moves. The 2018-2019 bear market rally that we identified during the last week of 2018 via the 2019 Forecast Issue, entitled "2019: Mayhem, Misallocation and the Mockery of True Price Discovery," is now on record as one of the most ferocious rallies ever recorded, as short sellers are being carried out on stretchers and in body bags left, right and center. The youngsters out there who think their new and highly sophisticated analytical software will guide them through this minefield of intervention and deceit have obviously forgotten (or conveniently ignored) the immortal phrase from the lips of the legendary Marty Zweig, "Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed."
Earlier this month, I did fight the tape and the Fed by shorting the S&P 500 slightly beneath the 200-dma (daily moving average) at 2,738, placing the stop-loss at a 2-day close over 2,755. This resulted in a modest haircut of 23 S&P points and an ample serving of humility. I now have Marty's picture up on my wall right above the monitor to remind me that only in free markets can you use the old tools from preintervention eras.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
Warren Buffett’s Confusion & Disorientation about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Warren Buffett’s famed annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders landed in the mail last week. Buffett has built a vast fortune investing in the shares of publicly traded companies. He has long been critical of gold. His most recent letter takes another swipe at the precious metal and implores readers to buy stocks instead.
Before his fans start dumping gold and calling their stock brokers, we thought it would be worth examining Buffett’s argument.
Buffett got started investing in 1942. He bought $114.75 worth of shares and says had that amount been invested in a no-fee S&P 500 Index Fund, the current value would be $606,811.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Are Telling Us / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices. These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets. When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy. When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies. When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.
Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”. Let’s get into the research.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
China - A Critical Global Growth Engine, Despite Deceleration / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite U.S. trade wars, China will stick to its growth target and fiscal easing in the short-term, deleveraging in the medium-term and rebalancing in the long-term. That’s the message of Premier Li’s report.Released on Monday at the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Premier Li Keqian’s annual work report sets the general tone for the 2019 economic policies.
In 2019, China has set a lower, flexible economic growth target at the range of 6.0% to 6.5%, while raising its tolerance of fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP.
The point about the GDP growth target is not how much it will exceed 6%, but that it should not fall below that level. That’s vital to sustain the quest to double living standard by 2020.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
America's 30 Blocks of Holes / Politics / Social Issues
By: James_Quinn
“If you have been voting for politicians who promise to give you goodies at someone else’s expense, then you have no right to complain when they take your money and give it to someone else, including themselves.” ― Thomas Sowell
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” ― Thomas Sowell
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
Gold’s Upcoming Plunge: The Powerful Analogies, Confirmations and Reasoning / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks plunged on Friday and the yellow metal closed the week below the $1,300 barrier. The gold-silver ratio soared once again and it all happened in tune with our expectations, and despite the recent dovish comments from the Fed. And – believe it or not – we have something much more important and exciting about the precious metals sector to tell you today.
Remember the analogy between 2012-2013 decline and the current situation in gold, silver, and mining stocks? We featured it in the previous year and the entire sector appeared to be declining in tune with it. The last few months of 2018, however, along with the initial part of this year, seemed to have entirely invalidated this analogy. But did they?
Over the weekend we dedicated a lot of time to analysis of the long-term charts and as we’re going to show you, it turns out that the analogy between 2012-2013 plunge and the current situation is definitely in place, but we had been earlier in the analogy than we originally thought. What we thought to be a decline similar to the late-2012 slide, was actually the smoothened version of the early-2012 decline. The most recent upswing is just like the mid-2012 upswing. And it seems to have ended.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
Fake Electronics Market Goods Are They Worth it? Testing Beats Headphones and Karaoke Mike / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: HGR
Go to on holiday to China, Turkey, virtually any tourist destination, you'll soon find how common markets for knock of goods and clothes are. As was our experience on our last trip to Turkey, specifically to visit the giant open air market at Fethiye where virtually every good was on show at knock down prices, this even before we attempted to negotiate the price down.
In this video we buy and test a Beats headphone for £15 (UK price £120), and a Karaoke Mike for £10 (£50 UK price). Of course we tested to make sure they worked at the time of purchase which they did, but are they the same, similar and most importantly do they LAST! Do they still work several months later, find out as we answer the question do you actually save money by buying knock off goods or not.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
Fethiye Tuesday Market - Shopping Top Tips for Buying Cheap Clothes - Turkey Holidays 2019 / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments. Where in this video we focus on shopping for clothes, giving our top tips of where to start and what to expect in terms of pricing!
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Monday, March 04, 2019
SPX: New All-Time Highs or Bust? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In my article last weekend, "Another Fibonacci Price and Time Intersection Approaches Heading into a Week Fraught with Headline Uncertainty," I discussed the importance of the intersecting time (Mon Feb 25) and price (2803.50 1% on the S&P 500) as a potential resistance area and reversal zone.
I noted that on Mon Feb 25, the rally from the Dec 26 low would equal 62% of the time spent in the Sep-Dec correction. And that the level of 2803.50 ( 1% = 2775 to 2832) represented the Fibonacci 76.4% recovery of the entire September-December decline.
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Monday, March 04, 2019
NASDAQ and DOW – Two Spectrum’s of the Stock Market / Politics / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets. The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268. It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away. We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.
Monday, March 04, 2019
Gerald Celente Reveals Triggers for World Economic Blowup, Gold Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always a joy to speak with him.
Mr. Celente, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.
Gerald Celente: Oh, thanks for having me on, Mike.
Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, the Trends Journal is forecasting Economic 9/11 as one of the big trends for 2019. There are plenty of indicators which just support your thesis for a major slowdown. Debt levels – both public and private – have exploded, China is slowing down and all the stimulus in Europe has failed to generate results there. Higher interest rates are hurting, everything from real estate to auto sales, et cetera. But none of this is reflected in the stock markets, which are roaring higher. Once again, it looks like the Fed is up to its old tricks, promising to stop the rate hikes they had planned and end the program for selling bonds. The constant intervention of the Fed has always been one of the major wildcards when trying to predict where things are headed in recent years. What do you think? Can the central bankers kick the can one more time to avoid a recession, or are they finally going to lose control in the months ahead?
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Monday, March 04, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the OEX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
Short term whilst it remains above 1220 the current trend remains up. There a few short term ideas I am watching, but if a new high is seen, then it can suggest the end to wave [v] of an impulse wave (5 wave rally) to end wave C of a larger zigzag correction (3 wave advance) from the Dec 2018 low.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 04, 2019
UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 / Housing-Market / Immigration
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My latest analysis in a series aimed at arriving at a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices covers population growth which is one of the key primary drivers for UK house prices which since the Labour government of 1997 natural population growth net of births and deaths has been vastly supplemented by what has amounted to out of control immigration courtesy of Britain's membership of the European Union and the former Labour governments objective for the importation of millions of potential Labour voters from mostly new member states from across an impoverished eastern europe that resulted in near 5 million economic migrants settling in the UK by 2016, mostly in what were already over crowded British cities, thus putting severe pressure on services and infrastructure and the whole housing market as the likes of the rental sector soared with 1 million new buy to let landlords entering the market buying 4 million properties, forcing up house prices across the board where rents in large part are being funded by tax payers in the form of the soaring housing benefits bill.
Monday, March 04, 2019
Stock Market VIX Likely to Pop Before March 21 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon. Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.
Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently. We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.
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