Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 09, 2019
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Fundamental analysis versus Elliott wave analysis: the winner for predicting the 9-year long commodity bear market is clear.
95% of traders fail. It's a day-drinking, country-music kind of statistic. Think: "Friends in Sell-Low, Buy-High Places."
One article attempts to quantify the reasons, citing: "SCIENTIST DISCOVERED WHY MOST TRADERS LOSE MONEY -- 24 SURPRISING STATISTICS." See number 14:
"Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments."
In other words, their timing is off key. And when it comes to seizing market opportunities, nothing is as important as timing. Our friends at Elliott Wave International said it best in the pages of their educational reference guide, Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2019
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Silver plunged on Tuesday, just as it was likely to after the triple reversal that we’ve been writing about, and it was declining strongly during Wednesday’s pre-market trading. And then it all changed. Silver soared before the U.S. markets opened and the white metal ended the session in the green. We definitely saw a silver reversal. But, was it significant and can it be trusted?
We doubt that and the below chart shows why.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2019
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
This morning in pre-market the Amigos’ futures charts update the macro story…
…which goes something like this…
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 08, 2019
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? / Commodities / Nickel
By: Richard_Mills
As it has done with cobalt, graphite and rare earths, China appears to be locking up the nickel market.
Nickel’s top producer, Indonesia, in early September decided to accelerate a scheduled ban on ore export shipments, from 2022 to January 1, 2020. The ban which instead took immediate effect on Oct. 28, is to encourage the building of domestic smelters instead of exporting raw nickel, and other metals, for processing abroad. (the country did the same thing in 2014 but lifted the ban three years later).
No coincidence
Is it any coincidence that Indonesia decided in September to ban nickel ore exports, just a few weeks after a meeting between Indonesian president Joko Widodo and Chinese industrial executives, including Xiang Guanda, who in partnership with his wife, runs Tsingshan Holding Group?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 07, 2019
Where is the Top for Natural Gas? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wrote a very telling research article on October 24th, 2019. We never published it because we had other articles scheduled to be published over the next few weeks in the queue and because our subscribers get our trade alerts before the general public. At this point, we are sharing that past article as well as some current research for Natural Gas that should be very interesting to you.
Pay very close attention to the original October 24th article, below, and our prediction that the $2.75 to $2.85 level would be a likely target for the upside price rally from the basing level below $2.30. Currently, Natural Gas is trading at $2.87 – reaching our initial target level.
If our research is correct, strong demand and limited supply globally may push Natural Gas well above the $3.20 to $3.40 level after a very brief pause happens near $3.00. In fact, Natural Gas may be getting ready to rally past 2018 highs ($4.93) if the situation presents itself for such an incredible price rally. What would it take for a rally like that to happen? Much stronger demand for natural gas because of an early, extreme winter and extended global demand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 06, 2019
The Biggest Gold Story Of 2020 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: OilPrice_Com
...
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Constructive Action in Gold & Silver Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In our most recent editorial we concluded by observing a few positives in the gold and silver stocks. W concluded with: “Their performance over the weeks ahead could give us an early hint as to how much longer the correction will last.”
Fast forward another week and a few positives has morphed into a handful of positives.
First let’s look at GDX. In the chart below we plot GDX and its advance decline (A/D) line.
GDX has essentially corrected for two months and it has yet to test the previous resistance zone at $24 to $25. It has bounced from $26 several times and established good support there. So it’s holding its gains.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 04, 2019
How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: OilPrice_Com
...
Saturday, November 02, 2019
Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Silver price soared during August as it played catch up to the Gold bull run, Silver peaking at a high of $ 19.75 early September before like Gold entering into a correction to a low of $16.94 late September and trending weakly higher during October to currently stand at $18.07, a 2 month trend similar to that of the gold price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 02, 2019
Are Precious Metals Beginning Another Rally Attempt? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the US stock market rallied to new all-time highs which prompted an almost immediate celebration. A day later, the US stock markets reacted by setting up multiple top rotation patterns. The next day, a moderate price rally set up after the US Fed decreased rates by 25 basis points. The next day, the markets sold off dramatically with heavier volume – prompting the metals and the VIX to rally.
We’ve been warning for weeks that the US markets were setting up into a Pennant/Flag formation within a tightening range biased to the upside. See our index trend analysis signals here. We believe the move in precious metals today may be indicative of a breakout/breakdown move in the markets – near the apex of the pennant formation on the Gold chart, below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 01, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Winter Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have surged in 2019, blasting higher after gold’s first bull-market breakout seen in several years. That powerful summer rally left them really overbought, necessitating a correction to rebalance exuberant sentiment. That grinding consolidation lower has set them up nicely for their winter rally, this sector’s seasonally-strongest time of the year. These seasonal tailwinds will amplify their next upleg.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 01, 2019
‘Power to the People’ and Mining Metals and Minerals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
The 1960s and 70s were decades of incredible social upheaval.
Fed up with wars, governments out of touch with their ideals, authority figures who didn’t get them, the “flower children” of the '60s took to the streets to demand equal rights for women, civil liberties for black Americans, an end to President Johnson and Nixon’s Vietnam quagmire - all fueled by a powerful new popular culture that called for peace and celebrated the freedom of the individual to do as he/ she pleased.
Fifty years on, the world has changed in ways the “hippy generation” could scarcely imagine.
Protests today tend to be in developing countries, places where greed, graft and corruption mix with inequality in a toxic brew that frequently boils over into the streets, and is just as often violently suppressed. I’m alluding here to the Arab Spring that demanded the reform of oppressed societies, but has for the most part failed to deliver - just look at Lebanon, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
In the West it’s not so much regime change people are after, as a change in the way governments conduct themselves. Consider the mass demonstrations in Hong Kong directed at the former British colony’s Chinese overlords, or global climate change protests. In the US, bad memories of the 1960s race riots were stirred up when racists and anti-racists confronted one another in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 01, 2019
Fed Interest Cuts Rates, Causing Gold Price to See-Saw / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday, that was already the third time this year when the Fed cut interest rates. In response, the price of gold erased earlier losses. That sounds a bit fishy. What is going on?
Fed Lowers Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on October 29-30th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the third time in 2019 already:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Gold Juniors Decline While Senior Miners Rally – What Gives? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Do you know what mining companies did yesterday? They verified a major breakdown, confirming the extremely bearish outlook for the following months. What? The miners rallied? Oh, you mean the senior mining stocks (HUI, GDX…) – then yes, they moved a bit higher. But the junior miners (Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index) just declined after confirming breakdown below the very important rising support line, which has profound implications for the next months. Truth be told, what’s happening in the senior miners can be used to indicate the next short-term moves as well, but we’ll start today’s analysis with the big picture.
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Silver’s Three Legged Bull-Run Stool / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
A case can be made that silver's current price “stability” – believed by many to be well below where it "should" be – is the result of at least three interlocking factors.
There are certainly other considerations, but the following seem especially relevant today…
Our chosen metaphor is the three-legged stool. Take one leg away, and the stool topples. In the case of silver, the outcome is likely to be a violent price rise of epic proportions.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold bull run of 2019 peaked early September at $1566, up over 25% on the year! Which will likely have encouraged many prominent gold bugs to get carried away with various headlines of Gold heading for $5000, $10,000 and beyond. However, since it's peak the Gold price has been drifting lower at a shallow pace to it's last closing price of $1491, still up over 19% on the year. So is this a correction in a bull market or marks the end of Gold's bull run for 2019?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Is Gold The Secret Diversifier? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Harry_Dent
It’s no secret to you that I am still more bearish on gold than bullish. And it’s no secret to me that a lot of our subscribers still like gold and feel that it is still a safe haven and a good store of value long term.Despite having argued that gold was one of the largest bubbles and a part of the larger 30-Year Commodity Cycle bubble and crash, I’ve also noted that both it and Bitcoin have weathered the crash much better than other commodities. And by the way, it has been the commodity sector that thus far has proven my view that bubbles don’t have soft landings when they finally burst .
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Silver Price Daily Reversals Powerful Lessons / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday’s session was exceptional for several reasons and the most profound ones are gold’s and silver’s sizable intraday rally, and the subsequent slide. The reversals that both metals created are practically screaming signs pointing to what’s next. The way mining stocks behaved, and how gold closed relative to its previous tops also have important implications, but let’s start today’s analysis with the former.
Silver, the less valuable (at least so far) of the most popular precious metals and many small investors’ metal of choice, reversed in a particularly meaningful way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 28, 2019
Powerful Lessons of Silver’s Daily Reversals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday’s session was exceptional for several reasons and the most profound ones are gold’s and silver’s sizable intraday rally, and the subsequent slide. The reversals that both metals created are practically screaming signs pointing to what’s next. The way mining stocks behaved, and how gold closed relative to its previous tops also have important implications, but let’s start today’s analysis with the former.
Silver, the less valuable (at least so far) of the most popular precious metals and many small investors’ metal of choice, reversed in a particularly meaningful way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 28, 2019
GATA’s Powell: Attacks on Gold & Silver Prices Are Losing Their Impact / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee joins me and updates us on the recent developments in the gold and silver manipulation prosecutions and discusses how the price spoofing schemes by the bullion banks may be tied to trades by central banks working to keep a lid on prices.
Chris also explains why he thinks the “powers at be” are losing control of the price and how the recent positive price action in the metals markets suggests they have lost some of their influence in the markets. So be sure to stick around for a jam-packed interview with Chris Powell of GATA, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, another week, another new and expanded repo market intervention by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened twice with fresh liquidity injections. Fed officials raised their offerings for overnight repos up from $75 billion to a staggering $120 billion.
Read full article... Read full article...