Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Silver Price Trend, Gold Ratio, MACD and Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Silver Trend Forecast 2019 Update ).

Gold Silver Ratio

The Gold / Silver ratio has continued to trend lower, currently standing at 83.8, which implies to expect the Silver price to continue to out perform Gold over the coming months. So whilst Silver is no longer the SCREAMING BUY it was when trading at a ratio of 95, nevertheless is still CHEAP! Whilst we can dream of Silver reaching it's long-term average of 50 which on today's Gold price would suggest $29.6! However my more realistic target for 2019 has been for a move to 80, which in fact was briefly achieved early September. A ratio of 80 would put the Silver price on $18.60 against the current price of $18.07, so only marginally higher, so whilst still favouring Silver, however don't expect Silver to soar once more like it did during August relative to the Gold price.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.

Monday, November 25, 2019

Gold Price Bull Run Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from part 1 (Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State). The gold price has had a strong bull run this year, breaking out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150, which propelled the Gold price towards a core target zone of $1500 to $1530 though ahead of the time frame I had in mind therefore putting the gold price into an extremely overbought state. The price action since the peak of $1566 appears corrective and thus should be in preparation for Gold's next leg higher with my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 less than 15% away from the most recent high of $1566.

Monday, November 25, 2019

Cameco Uranium Major 'Heading Into a Bigger Q4' / Commodities / Uranium

By: The_Gold_Report

The Q3/19 results and the Q4/19 outlook are outlined in a BMO Capital Markets report.In a Nov. 5 research note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce wrote that following the reporting of Q3/19, the outlook for Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) "remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and upside potential if uranium prices recover quicker than expected."

Q4/19 is expected to be more active than Q3/19, as is typical for the uranium company, Pearce noted. For one, BMO expects Cameco to make record purchases in Q4/19 of greater than 7,000,000 pounds (7 Mlb) of uranium, including 1.2 Mlb from Inkai, to meet the midpoint of guidance. Further, BMO expects Cameco to sell 13.5 Mlb of uranium in Q4/19, which would constitute a quarterly record and which should drive CA$157 million of free cash flow.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

This Time is Different for Gold - Today vs. 2012 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.

We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Is Another Sharp Precious Metals Sector Down-Leg Imminent? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the data and answers the question. The precious metals sector has been on the defensive since gold's COTs reached extreme readings in August, and silver broke down from its parabolic uptrend in September. Many think that the sector correction has now run its course, but has it? That is the question that this update is intended to answer.

On gold's latest six-month chart we can see the correction in force from the start of September and how it has unwound its earlier overbought condition and brought it back to a support level. Given the bullish alignment of moving averages, which shows the existence of a larger uptrend, many are concluding that all this will be sufficient to get it moving north again from here. However, there are several bearish factors in play, which suggest that instead we are likely to see another sharp drop before this corrective phase is done. The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Here’s Why You Must Protect Yourself Outside the Financial System… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's good to have you on as always and we appreciate the time today. How are you?

David Morgan: Mike, I'm well. Thank you for having me.

Mike Gleason: Well, we've had a significant correction in precious metals prices, especially in silver, and I wanted to get your thoughts on that to start out here. To us, it looked like the bullion banks sold futures contracts to lots of speculators who got interested in metals. Then as often happens, the speculators got taken out to the woodshed. However, open interest appears to still be rising. We would have expected that to fall after a couple weeks of lower prices and pain pushing those longs out of the market, so maybe something else is going on here. What do you make of the recent price correction and where do you think the markets might be headed in the short term? Do you think the selling might be over for now?

Friday, November 22, 2019

Why You Should “Follow the Money” on The Yellow (and Silver) Brick Road / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Since the Federal Reserve detached the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, the world's central bankers – with the Fed leading the charge, have flooded the world with fiat currency to the point of diminishing its purchasing power to shadow status.

A common belief during the early decades of the former Soviet Union's rise after 1917 was that, according to Marxist-Leninist theory, the West and capitalism would either self-destruct, or be "buried" by the superior economic platform being constructed for the proletariat by the USSR, and later Communist China.

But even the Great Depression, which in the West lasted from the Crash of 1929, and arguably into WWII, failed to do the trick.

Friday, November 22, 2019

The Worst Is Over For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.

Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future.  Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal.  On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?

Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Department of Justice prosecutors charged a sixth JPMorgan executive for cheating in the precious metals markets.

Jeffrey Ruffo stands accused of racketeering and spoofing metals prices from 2008 - 2016, along with other crimes including conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

The indictment outlines nearly a decade spent coordinating with other traders in JPMorgan’s precious metals department to rig prices. The activity includes thousands of fraudulent trades placed for two purposes.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In Friday’s article, we wrote that what comes up must correct and gold has indeed shown to be in a corrective mode. We also wrote that the yellow metal was unlikely to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the previous upswing and while gold moved to this level earlier today, it didn’t break below it. At least not in any significant way – the few cents below this level doesn’t really count. Let’s take a closer look at gold’s overnight chart to see what the decline means.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Submissions

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, November 18, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just enjoyed a phenomenal quarter for gold, which soared after its first bull-market breakout in years.  Q3’19’s much-higher prevailing gold prices should’ve driven soaring earnings for the miners, due to their big inherent profits leverage to gold.  So this just-completed Q3 earnings season is the most important for this sector in a long time.  Did the gold miners’ fundamentals indeed radically improve?

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched way back in May 2006, it has an insurmountable first-mover lead.  GDX’s net assets running $11.8b this week were a staggering 40.2x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is effectively this sector’s blue-chip index.

Monday, November 18, 2019

The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Sunday, November 17, 2019

What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In a key policy shift, the ECB has recently introduced tiered system of interest rates. This news isn’t of interest only to the banks keeping their reserves at the ECB. In today’s article, you’ll learn about the new instrument of monetary policy, and find out what it implies for the gold market.

If you think that monetary policy in the United States is crazy, you are right. But in Europe, it is even stranger (and in Japan, it is really insane). As you probably remember, in September, the ECB introduced a package of measures to ease monetary policy further in the face of sluggish economic growth and subdued inflation. In particular, the Governing Council resumed quantitative easing (the bank will be purchasing €20 billion of assets monthly), eased the conditions for TLTRO operations, strengthened the forward guidance strategy, and – the crème de la crème – cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50 percent, as the chart below shows. The ECB used, of course, all these instruments already in the past. What is really new is the introduction of the tiering system. How does it work and what could be its consequences for the euro area economy and gold prices?

Sunday, November 17, 2019

DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Impeachment circus lows and stock market highs dominated the news cycle this week, and precious metals are quietly attempting a recovery.

Bulls still have some work to do to repair the technical damage inflicted on both metals during last week’s selling. Gold and silver still face some overhead resistance and the potential for concentrated short selling by financial institutions in the futures markets.

Significant price bottoms are usually reached after the commercial sellers force the speculative longs to capitulate. We certainly saw some of that last week. Whether there is one final washout ahead remains to be seen.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months. 

In Part I and Part II, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be very compelling evidence that any continue oil price decline from current levels may be setting up the global markets for a massively volatile price reversion – similar to what happened in 1929. 

Prior to the stock market collapse in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, commodity prices collapsed in 1921 and again in 1930.  This commodity price collapse was the result of over-supply and a dramatic change in investor mentality.  The shift away from tangible items and real successful investing/manufacturing and towards speculation in the housing markets and stock market.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

The gold price bottomed in late 2015 around $1,050 per ounce. It has since advanced to a high of $1,555 in early September, followed by a pullback to the current price of $1,470. Gold is in a well-defined uptrend channel with higher lows and recently higher highs. The breakout above $1,360 this summer was significant and we have seen follow-through buying. The $420 move in the price of gold from the bottom in late 2015 represents a gain of 40% in just under four years.