Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Gold Trading Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

I have Gold on day 21 seeking out its next TC Low. My normal timing band, low to low is 23-29 days so I will be looking for the next low between mid-June to perhaps June 20-22.

My Blue Boxes on the Gold and GDX charts show you Time and Price possibilities. On Gold, the box should project at least a 38% retrace as a minimum but more likely a 50% retrace or lower.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Is The Great Commodity Bear Finally Over ? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

There is something happening in the commodities complex that has been going on for awhile now that needs to be addressed tonight. A subtle change actually started earlier this year and has been gaining momentum especially in the energy sector. I know for a lot of you, with the weak US dollar, you are thinking, “how could commodities be declining,” which goes against everything you have learned about how the markets are supposed to work. If the markets always behaved like everyone thinks they should then there would be no markets, because everyone can’t be right. That’s the nature of the beast we’re trying to tame.

Tonight I would like to show you some bearish rising wedges which have formed all over the place in the commodities complex. Many of the rising wedges took over a year to build out so that sets up a healthy decline. The bigger the pattern the bigger the move.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Precious Metals’ Reply to US Dollar’s Small Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver and mining stocks finally moved lower after several days of higher prices and one can say the opposite about the USD Index. Was this just a pause or a beginning of a bigger downtrend?

The latter is quite likely and the reasons come from the precious metals charts as well as from the one of the USD Index. In short, the points that we made in the previous alerts this week remain up-to-date, especially those that we discussed yesterday regarding the “when” factor. We will move to this issue in a few minutes and in the meantime, let’s start today’s discussion with gold’s short-term chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Geopolitical Risks in Retreat. Will Gold Drown? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the previous edition of the Market Overview we wrote that “geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market” at the turn of March and April, as the yellow metal gained about 7 percent from mid-March to mid-April. However, the price of gold declined about 4.8 percent until May 9 when it started its rebound. As the chart below shows, at the beginning of July, the price of gold came close to the level of mid-April.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Gold Price Breakout? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Savage

Gold actually broke its bear market trend line last year. There was never any doubt that a new bull market had begun.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Gold Price Is Facing 1295.44 Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

After touching the ascending trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the March 10 low of 1194.94 on its daily chart, XAUUSD rebounded strongly from 1214.17 and the pair is now facing 1295.44 resistance.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Gold Price Rallies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Gold futures have risen to 1298.65 thus far today. I have redrawn the chart to show a probable Broadening Wedge that may allow gold to rally to the Cycle Top at 1335.49. However, I would approach this projection with care, since today Wave 5 has reached equality with Wave 1 and the Cycles Model shows peak strength today, as well. The Broadening Wedge does not require the final rally to touch the upper trendline. Despite all this, should there be a flash crash in equities, gold may still rally higher.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Gold and Silver on Major Buy Signals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the precious metals markets, noting a new major sell signal in the USD, which supports metal prices.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

UK Terrorist Attacks See Gold Price Stay Firm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

A summer evening on London Bridge and in Borough Market ended in terror on Saturday as attackers killed seven people and injured 48.

This is the second terrorist attack on British soil in less than two weeks and the the third this year. The attack was immediately labelled as a terrorist attack. In the hours that followed police arrested a further 12 people who were suspected of having links to the horrendous incident.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Submissions

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Gold Mining Stocks in 2017 Whipsaw / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.

Saturday, June 03, 2017

Gold Miners Weak but not Oversold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

If looking at Gold only in a vacuum, it looks good. Its uptrend since the start of the year remains intact and it has pushed above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. It closed the week at $1280/oz and could test $1300 next week. But looks can be deceiving. Considering the US Dollar index closed at a 7-month low today, Gold is lagging a bit. Moreover, both Silver and the gold miners have not confirmed Gold’s recent rise. In fact, the miners are lagging the metals “bigly.” At the moment the miners are not so oversold but a reversal in Gold could be the catalyst that pushes miners to oversold extremes.

Saturday, June 03, 2017

Gold Keep Calm and Carry On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

As precious metals expert Michael Ballanger ponders the current markets, he vows to "Keep Calm and Carry On." As I was walking through the shopping district of Kingston-on-Thames yesterday, I was wondering whether the locals had gotten the memo that the country remained on "High Alert" in light of the Manchester bombings. Here I was in the middle of an historic "village," walking across the Clattern Bridge (built in 1293) along with thousands of British shoppers, laughing and joking, sitting in pubs, talking about the rugby matches and generally going about their regular daily business as if nothing had happened. If I could have drawn little "thought balloons" above each and every person I observed, there would be one simple image of a raised middle finger everywhere. It was a wonderful, beautiful thing to witness.

Friday, June 02, 2017

Silver Short-Squeeze Potential / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver has suffered a lackluster year so far, really lagging gold’s upleg.  Sentiment is still reeling following silver’s crushing selloff from mid-April to mid-May.  But that plunge was largely driven by extreme silver-futures selling by speculators, including a blistering spike in short selling.  The resulting excessive shorts have left silver with excellent near-term potential for a short squeeze, which would catapult it rapidly higher.

Technically, silver ultimately acts like a leveraged play on gold.  The yellow metal has long been silver’s dominant primary driver.  Investors and speculators alike flock to silver when gold is rallying, forcing this tiny market to surge dramatically.  But when gold sentiment is weak due to lackluster price action, silver demand from traders dries up.  Thus silver drifts listlessly or grinds lower, compounding bearish psychology.

Friday, June 02, 2017

Silver and NASDAQ Strength Will Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: DeviantInvestor

Bubbles come and go.

Silver and gold – 1980

Japanese Nikkei – 1990

NASDAQ – 2000

Mortgages and Real Estate – 2006

Bonds, Debt, Stocks, Real Estate – 2017

Friday, June 02, 2017

Has Permian Crude Oil Productivity Peaked? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The U.S. shale industry might have just received a huge windfall with the nine-month extension of the OPEC cuts. Shale output was already expected to come roaring back this year, but the extension of the cuts provides even more room in the market for shale drillers to step into.

The sky is the limit, it seems. However, there are growing signs that the U.S. shale industry could be reaching the end of the low-hanging fruit. Or, more specifically, drilling costs are starting to rise and the enormous leaps in production that can be obtained by simply adding more rigs also appears to be running into some trouble.

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Gold Price Moves Higher but Miners Don’t  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday’s session was yet another one in row when mining stocks underperformed the yellow metal, which continues to have bearish implications. Nonetheless, gold moved to new short-term highs and in today’s alert we’re going to discuss the implications of this move.

In short, there are no important ones. Let’s see why (charts courtesy of http:/stockcharts.com).

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Is the Energy Rally Running out of Gas ? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update some charts for Natural Gas and oil which appear to be building out a topping formation. If these patterns play out there is a lot of room to the downside we can take advantage of. There has been a lot of backing and filling, but it looks like this may be coming to an end and we may finally get the impulse move down.

$NATGAS has been building out a 1 year H&S topping pattern and just recently completed the high for the right shoulder. This daily chart shows a blue 5 point bearish rising flag that broke below the bottom rail today. A backtest to the underside of the 5 point bearish rising flag would come in around the 3.18 area which would represent a low risk entry point to go short natural gas. The possible neckline is still quite a bit lower which would be another low risk entry point if the neckline gives way.

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Gold Benefits from Uncertainty Thanks to Twitter and UK Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

• Gold hits five-week high
• Reaches $1,273.74/oz, highest since April 25th
• Sterling recovers after UK polls point towards a hung Parliament
• Expected Fed-tightening capped gains
• 90-dead in Kabul, further signs of increasing tension in Middle East
• Trump expected to pull out of Paris Accord and Trump’s anti-Iran axis already feuding

Thursday, June 01, 2017

How Low Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although crude oil climbed above the level of $50 yesterday, this improvement was very temporary and the black gold closed the day below this barrier. In this way light crude invalidated the earlier breakout, which will likely trigger further declines. How low could the commodity go in the coming days?