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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

A Massive Gold Bull Market Building / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Imagine, if you will, there was no coronavirus. No haz-mat suits, medical masks & gloves, no make-shift morgues. No terminally ill patients hooked up to ventilators, no horrible deaths without love ones close, no lockdowns, no social distancing, no deserted streets, no bailouts, no emergency wage supplements, just a regular spring with birds chirping and flowers blooming. 

Of course there is no getting away from the covid-19 pandemic that has slammed into populations and economies like a “God of chaos” comet. It seems to have permeated civilization, threatening lives, livelihoods, and the way we conduct ourselves professionally and socially. 

I’d just like to put it into perspective, by looking back at where we were, before all this madness began. Because in the wise words of philosopher George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

It is tempting, while still in the thick of the pandemic, to don rose-colored glasses, but weeks before the onset of covid-19, we were writing how things were not going as well as they appeared, with the global economy. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The Subtle Precious Metals Signals Keep Coming In / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The greenback exerts powerful influence on the precious metals – that has been the case yesterday, and it unsurprisingly continues to be so also today. So, what message is the USDX sending out right now?

USD Index in the Spotlight

We’ll open up with a quote from yesterday’s Alert (by the way, please remember that all charts are expandable/clickable):

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, we see that the USD Index just formed a reversal and is now testing the previous lows. There were very few 4-hour reversals in the recent days, but when we saw them, big and fast rallies followed. The early-March bottom is particularly similar to the current situation as the USD Index is – just like back then – after a visible decline, and the 4h reversal was followed by a re-test of the intraday low.

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Commodities

Monday, April 20, 2020

Supply, Demand, and Depreciation: Key Drivers for Copper, Gold and Silver as the Economy Reopens / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

The metals markets are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously like never before. The global virus-triggered economic freeze has caused industrial demand for all commodities to crater.

At the same time, mining output is also crashing as virus fears force many mines around the world to suspend operations.

What is the “right” equilibrium price for copper, silver, gold, and other metals in an environment of such extreme and unstable supply and demand stresses? The verdict of the market changes – often dramatically – day by day.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Does Gold Really Care Whether Coronavirus Brings Us Deflation or Inflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the many bothering issues about the coronavirus crisis, is whether it will turn out to be inflationary or deflationary. What do both of these scenarios mean for gold ahead?

US Inflation Rate Declines in March

Many people are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, the supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices.

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Commodities

Friday, April 17, 2020

AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts Silver at $26 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis.  This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process.  Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65). 

Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks.  Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends.  Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located.  These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 16, 2020

3 Top Oil Stocks to Buy Right Now / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Due to several recent events, including a price war initiated by Russia, the price of oil has declined to record-low levels these past couple of weeks. Subsequently, the price decline resulted in a massive worldwide panic which pushed the price down even further.

While the panic might reasonable and based on a real fear of what the situation might lead to, there are still ways that investors can protect their funds. And for those willing to risk a little extra, some investments could even pay off in the short run, especially when investing in stable oil stocks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Gold Price Near March Highs and Ready to Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Submissions

Recent shifts in the markets suggest gold prices are about to breakout in the same manner as they did over the summer last year.

The price of gold is a small distance away from the March highs ahead of the North American open on Monday and a fresh seven-year high looks to be probable.

Many factors impact the price of gold but there are few specific things that I am looking at that lead me to believe gold prices are about to break out.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Global Shutdown and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos. This what we are observing right now – the only difference is that Atlas has not shrugged but got infected. But the result is the same. The economy freezes. We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out what does the global shutdown implies for the global economy and the gold market!

Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. They disappear, leaving their businesses to their fate. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 11, 2020

A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.

It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.

But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Gold has been misunderstood and ignored by retail investors, financial advisors and pension managers as a critical portfolio asset during normal market conditions.  However, during periods of market stress, such as we are experiencing now, gold becomes a safe haven asset that will mitigate losses in the portfolio. For a number of years, many experts have been warning about overinflated markets that were just waiting for a spark to ignite the entire system. 

I warned investors that we were in a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate that was created by central bank policies. Although I concluded that a market crash was inevitable, I didn’t foresee that the spark to ignite all three bubbles would be the Coronavirus. While the virus itself is life threatening and will result in large demographic changes across the globe, the economic implications may be worse than the disease. Major economies in Europe, Canada and the United States have been shut down. Every industry—airlines, hotels, manufacturing, entertainment, sports, schools and retail—is in lockdown.  Most of the western world is ravaged by fear, isolation, loss of employment, loss of income and the psychological effect of this massive lockdown situation. Employees have either been terminated or laid off indefinitely. The scale of this unemployment crunch and financial crisis is beyond the reach of governments’ assistance. Many businesses will not be able to reopen once the health issues have been controlled.

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Back at the 2008 crash low in the HUI there was a reversal pattern, that is pretty rare, which helped confirm that very important low. If you ever wondered what the 2007 – 2008 top looked like and the decline that followed to the 2008 crash low this daily chart for the HUI paints the Chartology I posted at the tent, in real time, as the impulse move to the downside took place.

The 2007 – 2008 H&S top was actually a double H&S top which ended the first 8 years of the bull market that began in 2000. Even though that is a beautiful H&S top no one wanted to believe it could be possible when I first began to post the possibility of what the implications were. At the time I viewed the H&S top as a normal H&S reversal pattern but I had no idea it would lead to the crash it did. Even during the crash of that magnitude the Chartology was about as good as it can get.

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

Expectations For Higher Gold Prices – Fly In The Ointment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

From Wikipedia: “In English, the phrase fly in the ointment is an idiomatic expression for a drawback, especially one that was not at first apparent, e.g.

     We had a cookstove, beans, and plates; the fly in the ointment was the lack of a can opener.” 

For four centuries, ‘a fly in the ointment’ has meant a small defect that spoils something valuable or is a source of annoyance. The modern version thus suggests that something unpleasant may come or has come to light in a proposition or condition that is almost too pleasing; that there is something wrong hidden, unexpected somewhere.”

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).

The percentage arrived at by dividing the country’s total GDP by its total debt indicates the country’s ability to pay back its loans. The higher the percentage, the higher the risk of a country being unable to pay the interest on its debt, and therefore defaulting on its debt. (countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios typically have trouble paying off debts. Because they are a higher risk to paying loans back, creditors demand higher interest rates. If a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio becomes too extravagant, creditors may stop lending to it altogether)

While debt defaults are rare, they can and do happen. In 2010 the European Union faced a crisis when Greece threatened to default, potentially causing a domino effect, of highly leveraged nations like Spain and Italy doing the same, which likely would have destroyed the European Union. 

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

With his portfolio "solidly anchored" in silver and gold, sector expert Michael Ballanger opines on how bankers and politicians can manipulate markets.

As a child, I used to get quite excited at the prospect of having my English "Gran" read me the Hans Christian Andersen book "The Emperor's New Clothes." I found the tale fiendishly amusing, as the charlatan tailor uses lethal doses of flattery and mystery to beguile the poor sovereign into really believing that he is wearing the finest robes ever woven. There is even greater irony in the crowds he passes during a parade as they "Oooh" and "Awww" at his comic preening, knowing full well that he is making a fool of himself but too fearful to do anything but play along. The ending is sublime, with the ultimate moment of reckoning coming "from the mouths of babes," in the form of a young lad who finally blows the whistle with the innocent but true acknowledgement that, indeed, the emperor was parading pitifully through the town square clad only in his knickers.

I think that I admired and, in fact, envied the scallywag tailor in a manner not dissimilar to the way I am awed by this recent bevy of bankers and politicians. They stand in front of the cameras with their carnival barker bravado and serpentine smiles as they lift trillions of dollars from the future wallets of the taxpaying public and distribute it shamelessly among their capitalist cronies.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price).  Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders.  The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.

For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias.  A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

All Is Not Well in the Gold Paper Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.

Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear. 

Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.

It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Gold and the dollar certainly move not in a random relation to each other. The strength and direction of one taking the cue from the other changes over time, but what does it tell us about the present moment?

The key point with regard to the US currency is that it appears to have already ended its pullback and is now ready to soar well above its previous 2020 high.

How do we know that the pullback is most likely over?

Because the USD Index already rallied for (actually more than) two consecutive trading days.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?

Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over.  Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI


The coronavirus wasn't the cause of oil's 70% collapse. This was

Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.

Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.

Having said that, sentiment indicators are also valuable in providing clues about "what's next."

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

A surge in coronavirus cases, an expansion of economic lockdowns, and an explosion in unemployment claims hit markets this week.  But this deluge of bad news didn’t seem to catch investors by surprise.

Instead of crashing to new lows, the stock market held within a trading range and rallied yesterday following the release of a horrific jobs report. 

It’s been a huge week for commodity markets as oil prices posted their biggest single day percentage gain ever Thursday, popping more than 25%.  Oil prices lifted from their severely depressed $20 per barrel level after President Donald Trump met with oil executives and announced Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to curtail production.

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