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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.

Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.

But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

A Key Gold Bull Market Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.

Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Goverment debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP  has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today.

There will soon be significant market movements to compensate for the unsustainable debt levels. If your debt levels are becoming too high, at some point your credit rating will be affected to the extent that lenders will require higher interest rates and/or they will refuse to provide you any credit. This is true whether you are an individual or a nation state.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

With the precious metals markets range-bound and driven by forces beyond his control, sector expert Michael Ballanger turns his contrarian eye to the past. With gold enjoying its best week of the year, with the Daily Sentiment Index charging northward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pressing 72 for the GLD, with the RSI for GDX pushing 75, and finally, with the newsletter community all falling on top of themselves with self-laudatory backslaps, I think it is time to adopt the contrarian view and step back.

It was less than five weeks ago, with gold and the miners all coming off sharply oversold conditions (RSI in the mid-high 30s), that I wrote that "carpe diem" in reference to ownership of GLD calls and my two favorite leveraged miners, NUGT and JNUG. Sure enough, JNUG has moved from $6.50 to $9.50 and NUGT from $14.50 to $22.10, while the GLD July $120 calls rocketed from $2.20 to $7.60. (Note: I did not get "top tick" for any of them, but did bank yet another decent 40% return on the miners, and a double and a half on the GLD calls).

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and explains why he believes this is a good time to build positions.

With things shaping up so well for gold, we can certainly take any short-term correction in our stride, and more than that, we can seize upon it as an opportunity to build positions further across the sector, whether by means of ETFs, stocks or options, and of course, gold itself.

Several factors suggest that a modest short-term correction is likely before the major breakout occurs. Gold is overbought after its recent run-up and is rounding over beneath the major resistance approaching $1400, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. Thus, the appearance of a short-term bearish "shooting star" candlestick on its chart on Friday coupled with its latest COTs showing Commercial short and Large Spec long positions hitting rather extreme levels suggests that it is likely to react back over the next week or two to allow things to cool for a bit before the major breakout occurs. The current COT structure IS NOT regarded as bearish overall, because we would expect speculators to pile in at the start of a big move—positions can be expected to get much more extreme once the big breakout occurs, flying off the charts and staying high as the first major upleg of the new bull market unfolds.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Awaits the FOMC as Economic Data Send Mixed Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Who wouldn’t know the Spaghetti Western The Good, the Bad and the Ugly? In today’s analysis, we have important pieces of economic data starring in the first two roles. Retail sales and industrial production rebounded in May, while the Empire State Index plummeted in June. How will these reports affect tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the gold market?

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What stands out from the long-term chart is that Silver tends to be pretty much dead for most of the time, only really coming alive towards the later stages of precious metals bull market manias when everyone begins piling in just before the bubble pops! Which is a warning not to get carried away with fantasy targets for Silver but try and keep things real by focusing on what silver has done in the past, namely the Silver price cap is $50.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

These Two Charts Virtually Scream “Buy Silver” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Amount of Dollars in Existence

Silver is currently trading around $14.84 an ounce. This is around 30% of its 1980 all-time high of $50. However, this is an incomplete representation of what silver is really trading at, relative to US dollars.

When you look at the silver price, relative to US currency (the amount of actual US dollars) in existence, then it is at its lowest value it has ever been (see chart below).

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a remarkable day Friday has been! Going into the U.S. session open, we have seen gold challenging its early-June highs. The barrage of geopolitical news has been deafening and gold had literally nowhere to go but up. But something “unexpected” yet totally predictable happened to those who have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Friday’s U.S. session has sent gold lower. On huge volume. And not only gold, that is. Those looking at the charts’ bigger picture, those familiar with our analyses, hadn’t been surprised. Now that the dust is settled and gold pushes lower, let’s examine the aftermath. And draw lessons for the days ahead.

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Commodities

Monday, June 17, 2019

Strap Yourselves In – Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”

But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged powerfully over the past few weeks, challenging upleg highs.  Traders started returning to this small contrarian sector as gold blasted back above the psychologically-crucial $1300 line.  While such early-summer strength is atypical, gold miners’ technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals all support more gains to come.  Gold stocks need to mean revert to much-higher price levels.

Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched in May 2006, this was the maiden gold-stock ETF.  That big first-mover advantage has helped propel GDX to sector dominance.  This week its net assets of $9.7b ran 46.5x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is this sector’s leading benchmark.

And it sure didn’t look pretty in May, with traders wanting nothing to do with gold stocks.  GDX spent the great majority of last month languishing near its 200-day moving average.  Just a few weeks ago on May 29th, GDX closed at $20.42.  That was down 3.2% year-to-date, much worse than gold’s own slight 0.2% YTD decline.  The gold stocks were really out of favor, just like the metal they mine which fuels their profits.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

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Commodities

Saturday, June 15, 2019

US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The following chart illustrates that there is a strong inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the Dollar rises, the gold price tends to fall and visa versa, it should not be surprising given that the Gold is priced in dollars. The only recent deviation from the correlation was October to December which coincided with stock market weakness i.e. SAFEHAVEN buying of the Dollar AND Gold. So the safe haven buying that gold bugs obsess over tends to be temporary at times of stock market stress.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 15, 2019

The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

After a period of economic prosperity, it is a given that eventually a period of economic decline will follow. This is a well known reality.

Since at least the early 80s there has been a period of great economic prosperity. Yes, there were many recessions during that period, however, as a whole it has been a prosperous period.

Now, there are many signs that we are likely to get a period of serious economic decline. The type that has not been seen in many a lifetime of those living today.

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Commodities

Friday, June 14, 2019

Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We take great pride in our research team’s ability to make accurate predictions and calls in the markets.  In addition to the many predictions and calls we’ve made over the past few years, our Gold prediction from October 2018 continues to astound many industry professionals. We receive emails from people asking how we were able to make such an incredible call in Gold 6 to 8 months before these price moves?  We politely tell these people that our research team and our proprietary predictive modeling tools assist us in finding and making these incredible predictions.  The simple answer is it takes hard work, specialized tools and a lot of skill and research.

Please take a minute to review some of our research from January 2019 that highlighted this incredible prediction for Gold and the supporting, more recent, research posts suggesting Silver is the real sleeper trade.

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Commodities

Friday, June 14, 2019

Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Silver price reluctantly followed the Gold higher early in the year to a late February peak of $16.20, following which it abruptly gave up all of its hard won gains for the year by making a new low early March at $15, breaking the preceding low of $15.45 and thus entering into a downtrend of a series of lower highs and lows where it remained until the Gold price came alive at the end of May 2019. Following which the Silver price busted out of its 2019 downtrend by hitting a recent high of $15.15 before succumbing to selling to bring the price down to its last close of $14.74 DOWN 5% for the year which compares against the Gold price up 4% for the year which illustrates the persistent under performance of the Silver price against the Gold price.

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Commodities

Friday, June 14, 2019

Soft Inflation Data and Concerned Draghi. How Will Gold Like It? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

U.S. consumer inflation has moderated recently. Trade wars go on. What the Fed will do now? Let’s not forget the recent ECB monetary policy meeting. It carries implications for both EUR/USD and gold. Just what are they?

Inflation Slows Down in May

The CPI rose just 0.1 percent in May, following an increase of 0.3 percent in April, the government said on Wednesday. It was the smallest hike since January. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased 0.1 percent, for the fourth month in a row. Although the monthly numbers do not portend a revolution, May indicates eased inflationary pressure, mainly because of falling energy and used-vehicle prices.

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