Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 17, 2015
What Is Really Driving Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: SecularInvestor
If anything, gold bulls are continuously looking to confirm their bullish outlook. Most precious metals websites are filled with stories, news and developments from the gold market, accompanied by the implication that they will drive the gold price up. Examples of this include gold coin sales, Shanghai gold withdrawals, central bank buying volumes, evidence of market manipulation, money printing volumes, velocity of money, etc.
The ongoing narrative is that there is a positive correlation between monetary stimulus and the price of gold. However, as you probably know by now, precious metals collapsed during the Fed’s QE to infinity program. The long-term gold chart (first chart below) shows that gold stabilized when the Fed started tapering and around the end of QE, which is very counterintuitive to say the least. That is not to say there is no correlation, but there is definitely not a direct correlation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Gold Price: Year 2000 All Over Again – How Will You Play It This Time? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently business and financial guru Mark Cuban wrote an article about why this tech bubble is going to be worse than the tech bubble of 2000. This made me take another look at the long term charts again, but instead of looking up the NASDAQ or the tech sector I decided to check out gold mining stocks, gold price and the Dollar index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 16, 2015
More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
WTI surged to close at $56.01 a barrel on Wednesday, while Brent closed at $62.86 after the US crude oil inventories showed a 'less-than-expected increase'. The latest weekly inventory (week ending April 10) from EIA showed an increase of 1.3 million barrels, much less than the 10.9 million barrels of build from the previous week. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Rubino
When oil prices fell out of bed last winter there was much hand-wringing over the fate of the former beneficiaries of high-priced crude. Trillions of dollars of junk bonds issued by frackers, for instance, might default, oil field services companies could fail, and layoffs in the oil patch might swamp the nascent employment recovery.
Some of this has happened, though not on the apocalyptic scale the worst-case scenarios suggested. More might be coming, but right now it’s not headline news in North America.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The solid façade of OPEC is crumbling.
The latest indication that all is not well within the ranks of the oil cartel came yesterday, when the organization released its monthly Bulletin.
Inside the magazine, the commentary slammed non-member nations for failing to follow the organization’s lead in “stabilizing” oil prices and having “go it alone” attitudes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Four Uranium Companies Poised to Profit from the Growth of Nuclear Power / Commodities / Uranium
By: Metals_Report
Nuclear power is enjoying a renaissance, and the world will soon need more uranium. Up to 50% more within a decade, says Joe Reagor of ROTH Capital. In this interview with The Mining Report, he explains that the share prices of uranium juniors remain low because the uranium spot price has not yet risen to reflect the increased demand just around the corner. This provides a great opportunity for canny, long-term investors, and Reagor identifies four companies that have the means to profit from the inevitable need for their product.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following part 1 of the Technical outlook for oil on April 7, this report examines the effect of the secular Commodity cycle on stocks (S&P 500), the U.S dollar on the CRB and WTIC's price since 1980.
Chart 1 is the S&P 500 since 1960. It traces the different trading patterns of the U.S. index during a secular Commodity cycle (1965-1980), a Stock cycle (1980-2000) and through another Commodity cycle (2000-2013) and the beginning of a new Stock cycle (2013 to present).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Important Bitcoin Price Action / Commodities / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: speculative short positions, stop-loss at $239, take-profit at $153.
Infosys, an Indian IT services and IT consulting company, is now looking into blockchain as a possible addition to the company products and services, we read on the Business Standard website:
Read full article... Read full article...According to a report in HT Mint, the Bengaluru-headquartered information technology services provider is assessing the merits of Blockchain, an open-source financial database that records all transactions of virtual currency Bitcoin, to see if the technology could be integrated into Finacle.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Separating Gold and Silver Stocks Saints from the Sinners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
Christos Doulis, mining analyst with PI Financial, hopes for the best but plans for reality. The bear market in precious metals is well into its fourth year and could persist into 2016. In this interview with The Gold Report, Doulis says he remains hopeful that this is the year things take a positive turn, but in case we see more of the same, he recommends a few low-cost producers with saintly management teams that keep delivering on promises.
The Gold Report: In September 2014, you told us that investors needed to own bulletproof, low-cost producers that can survive lower gold prices. What is your investment thesis for this point in the bear market?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2015
Stacking Silver = Simple Solution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Look at our financial world over 30 years from 30 miles high – the BIG PERSPECTIVE.
- Global debt exceeds $200 Trillion and is increasing rapidly. It will not be repaid at current value, and in the unlikely chance it is repaid, those future dollars, euros, yen, whatever will have been deeply devalued. Debt created to fund current consumption, instead of productive investment, is dangerous. Excessive debt is deadly.
Monday, April 13, 2015
Gold Trading Week Ahead - 13 April 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Harley_Salt
Gold had a roller coaster week last week however it managed to finish the week above the key US$1,200 level.After a slow week on the data front last week, this week is full economic reports that will drive the price of gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2015
Western Interest in Gold Continues to Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Gold has managed to avoid a complete chart breakdown thus far but that is due more to buying in the physical market out of the far East rather than any wholesale interest among the high-powered, deep-pocketed, Western-investment crowd. As noted many times here at this site, it is my firm opinion that while buying out of China and India can hold the price and form a floor in the gold market, it CANNOT drive the price sharply higher as so many rabid gold bugs have their hearts set on happening. That requires the momentum-based crowd which chases prices higher due to chart signals and could care less about what any perceived "value" area might be for gold, or for that matter, any other market that they ply their computers in.
Monday, April 13, 2015
Silver Price set up to get Whacked Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
There are a lot of fine words being written about how attractive silver is at current prices and how it is about to enter a new bullmarket etc, but the plain truth is that it remains in a major downtrend and is a bearmarket until it breaks out of it.
We can see the long persistent downtrend in silver on the 8-year chart below, and how, as yet, there is no sign of an end to it. If the dollar broke down from its parabolic uptrend, shown on a chart in the parallel Gold Market update, that might change things of course, but last week the dollar looked to be getting ready for a breakout to new highs, so that appears to be off the table for now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 13, 2015
Gold Price Dome Cap, Fall Below $1000 Likely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Although gold has rallied as expected in the last update, the advance has been modest and now it appears to be weakening again, and with its latest COTs showing a marked deterioration and the dollar maintaining its parabolic acceleration, it looks set to drop back along with silver. The long-term uptrend remains down.
On the 6-month chart we can see how gold's advance following its breakout from a rather steep downtrend has already run into trouble at a resistance level, and it appears to be rounding over within a Dome pattern that looks set to force it into decline. If the dollar accelerates to the upside, looking likely at this point, then gold can be expected to drop back initially to the support shown in the $1130 - $1140 area, and then break lower. Moving averages are in bearish alignment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Gold and Silver Policy Will Continue until Pitchforks and Torches Appear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jesse
Gold led the way as it popped back over 1200 on news that India showed record gold imports in March of 125 tonnes.
Gold is flowing from West to East. The data shows this without much room for error, unless you are an economist or analyst whose paycheck has willfully obscured their vision. How this ends I do not know and no one can really say. But it will end. I would like to think that at some point the central planners will go so far off into the weeds of their own obfuscation that the people will generally rise up and tell them to take them models and use them to pound sand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2015
What is Next for Gold and Silver Markets? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Richard_Cox
Over the last year, precious metals markets have have been one of the most closely watched asset classes in the financial environment as price volatility has reached heightened levels on several occasions. For those looking for evidence that the declines have finished (and that the long-term uptrend has resumed), it will be critical to turn the attention back to the underlying economic data that will determine where sentiment moves in the broader market. It is always a good idea to keep in mind that gold and silver tend to perform well when the rest of the market looks negative, as investors have historically used precious metals as a way of gaining safe haven exposure and to safeguard against potential rises in inflation.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
What Gold's Bull Market (That's Right, Bull Market) Means For Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: John_Rubino
One of the oddities of floating exchange rates is that they cause people to view the world in terms of their own national currency. For Americans that means looking out through a window that is distorted by the dollar's recent surge. A C$100-a-night Vancouver BC hotel room, for instance, cost about US$100 in 2013 and now costs about $80. Most other Canadian products are commensurately cheaper, making a week north of the border suddenly a lot easier to fit into the family budget. Though fundamentally not much has changed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Gold And Silver Nothing Of Substance Going On. Fiat “Dollar” Controlling? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
There is little going on in the precious metals markets that indicates directional movement to the upside, and not even much to the downside. The news is as disjointed but permeated with sameness as ever before. To try to make sense of nonsense remains in the theater of the absurd. All we have to offer are the current read of charts, and they are an extension of what they have been like for the last several weeks.
A look at the fiat faux “dollar” chart, the antithesis of gold, may offer the best clue as to why PMs remain mired in the trading range reaches within their protracted down trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Ghosts In The Machine - Population Growth vs Food Production / Commodities / Food Crisis
By: Richard_Mills
In 1798 32 year-old British economist Malthus anonymously published "An Essay on the Principle of Population" and in it he argued that human population's increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16 etc.) while their food supply can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 etc.). Since food is obviously necessary for us to survive, unchecked population growth in any one area or involving the whole planet would lead to individual pockets of humanity starving or even mass worldwide starvation.
"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man." Thomas Robert Malthus
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Gold-Futures Short Covering Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s bottoming consolidation grind continues, with investment demand still garroted by sky-high world stock markets and the parabolic US dollar. With investors missing in action, gold prices remain totally at the mercy of American futures speculators. These perpetually-bearish traders are once again heavily short gold, which has led to sharp short-covering rallies in recent years. The latest one has just started.
In normal markets, gold prices are determined by global investment demand. This certainly isn’t the biggest source, running at just under a quarter of world gold demand last year according to the World Gold Council. But it’s the most volatile by far, changing dramatically with the shifting winds of investors’ favor for gold. When they want to diversify into gold, their extra buying inexorably pushes gold prices higher.
Read full article... Read full article...