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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.

Lesson learned.

Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Gold and Silver Prepare For A Momentum Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3~5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general US stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.​

Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators.  The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the US stock market since the December 24th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level.  It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10~15+ days in the US stock market.  This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

What Do You Want, Mr. Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Barrick wants to buy Newmont. Trump wants a deal with China. Palladium wants to fly into space. And what does gold want?

Will Barrick and Newmont Create Gold Monster?

Do you remember our January 24, 2019 edition of the Gold News Monitor? We analyzed in that report the historic transaction in the bullion industry, i.e. the Newmont Mining’s purchase of Goldcorp, which will create the world’s largest gold miner. Forget it!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

It’s Dumb To Have No Gold Amid All Of This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jared_Dillian

The Green New Deal is silly and not worth our attention. It implies we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit.

Let me blow your hair back for a second.

The two biggest US stock market rallies (in the 1920s and in 1990) occurred when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared.

Calvin Coolidge led the US through most of the Roaring Twenties. And he is perhaps the second-least well-understood president of the 20th century (behind only Warren Harding).  

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Gold Price Breakout: Three Major Factors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). These factors can be identified, each very powerful, each with a very new recent twist to alter the landscape. All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. The owners of the US Federal Reserve, Euro Central Bank, and Bank of England have granted themselves free money in gifted pilferage for a full century. As the saying goes, a nation needs a central bank like an oyster needs a piano. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, and corrupted demand functions.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Supply Problems Worsen in Minted Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Sales of the Silver American Eagles are off to stronger start this year, and the U.S. Mint has once again been caught flat-footed. Dealers received the following statement from the Mint last Thursday:

This is to inform you that we have temporarily sold out of our inventories of 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. In addition, all remaining 2018-dated inventories have been sold too.

The West Point Mint is busy producing additional 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. We hope to be able to re-launch the 2019-dated coins in a few weeks.

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Commodities

Monday, February 25, 2019

Now For The Intense Phase Of The Silver Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Like all bull markets, the silver bull market has different phases, and theses phases have different intensities of price growth.

There are various indications/signs that silver is going into a phase of the bull market where prices will rise much faster than before. I have covered some of them in previous articles.

Here are a few things to look at.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Gold Looking to Break 2018 High - Elliott Wave View / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

In our previous article, we have highlighted the possibility that Gold can quickly retest the high in 2018. The chart below shows the yellow metal has broken above a long term bearish channel from Sept 5, 2011 high. In addition, it has successfully closed above the ascending trend support from December 3, 2015 low.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, February 23, 2019

China-US Rivalry and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It’s unimaginable what great progress China made in the last forty years. The rise of such economic power triggered many fears (or hopes) about the future international order. We invite you to read our today’s article about the rivalry between China and the US and find whether the Red Dragon will replace America as a global hegemon. And what would such a shift mean for the gold market.

The economic growth of China raises many worries. While some people fear the slowdown or stagnation in the Middle Kingdom, others claim that China will turn the existing international world upside down.

You see, since the end of the World War II, the US has been the most powerful country in the world. The Soviet Union rivaled, but it was too weak, and collapsed eventually. The global hegemony of the US became total then.

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Commodities

Friday, February 22, 2019

Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.checkWednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Gold Weakens After FOMC Minutes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent minutes show that the Fed is divided over future rate hikes. How should gold investors react?

To Hike, or not to Hike, That Is The Question

As Chairman Powell has been good at communicating the US central bank’s plans, the recent FOMC minutes do not contain too many surprises. In January, the Fed took investors by surprise, saying that it could be patient on interest rates. The minutes elaborated on this, explaining that a patient approach offers many benefits – additional data would shed some light on the recent softness in inflation, would enable the Fed official to observe effects of past rate hikes and would allow time for a clearer picture of trade and fiscal policy, and the state of the global economy – and only few risks, as inflationary pressure is muted, while asset valuations less stretched:

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Does technical analysis need to be so convoluted?  Here are a couple of definitions from different sources:

1Convoluted: (especially of an argument, story, or sentence) extremely complex and difficult to follow. (source)

2) Convoluted sentences, explanations, arguments, etc. are unreasonably long and difficult to understand.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Why Is Central Bank Buying Of Gold So Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives' tale.

Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.

We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the 'smart money' given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20~30 days.  We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30~45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here.  This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system.  We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.

The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now.  We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Gold and the Great Global Wealth Grab / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.

If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?

Trump’s National Emergency and Gold

On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :

the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.

Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.

The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com and famous author of The Crash Crouse and his latest book Prosper! joins me to dissect what’s behind the Yellow Vest movement in France and why the mainstream media and those in power simply don’t want you to know what’s really going on there. Chris also tells us which precious metal he most favors right now. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the great Chris Martenson, coming up after this week’s market update.

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told some real whoppers. We’ll address his misrepresentations head on, in just a bit.

But first, let’s review this week’s market action. Despite drama in Washington over averting a government shutdown and prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on the border, nothing too dramatic is happening in the gold market. 

Prices are trading in a tight range, coming in essentially unchanged from last Friday’s close. Gold currently trades at $1,316 per ounce.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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