Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Silver Reverse Bubble of 2012 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

In late 2008, when silver was massacred in the futures pit and saw its price fall from over $20 to under $10, I told my readers at that time that silver entered into a “reverse bubble”. I know it sounds odd, but let me re-visit the concept.

As you know by now, a “bubble” is when an asset reaches an unsustainably high level due to artificially stimulated demand. In 2004, I wrote that housing was entering a historic bubble because government policies such as excessively (artificially) cheap credit inflated the price of real estate to nose-bleed levels. The real estate mania was everywhere in 2004-2006 as buyers were going berserk.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Indicators Predict Gold Trend to Continue High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: The_Gold_Report

Many forces influence the gold markets today, sometimes producing confusing indicators of what may lie ahead. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John LaForge, commodity strategist at Ned Davis Research Inc., talks about the numerous and sometimes not-so-obvious factors that he considers in his research and how they influence the gold markets and, ultimately, mining shares. As long as there is no significant improvement in the world monetary situation and real interest rates don't rise dramatically, he believes the gold price trend remains positive and gold stocks should shine brighter.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Navigating Gold Stocks During the Weakest Quarter / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: The_Gold_Report

Barry Allan, vice chairman of Mackie Research Capital Corp.'s mining group, is guarded about gold equities from March to May, statistically the weakest period. However, Allan remains bullish on gold stocks through the end of the year and has Buy recommendations on more than 70% of his coverage universe. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Allan points to where he's finding value during this period of seasonal weakness.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Why I'm Excited About This Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Casey_Research

Rick Rule writes: After a reasonably long period of sustained and occasionally dramatic escalations, commodity markets in general, and precious metals markets in particular, have declined. This is normal and healthy behavior, even if it is uncomfortable for some market participants. Readers with a long memory will remember the 1970s gold bull market, where the gold price advanced from $35 to $850 per ounce – though in 1975, in the middle of that epic bull market, the gold price declined by 50%. While a 50% decline is a near-religious event for many market participants, particularly those on margin, it is instructive to note that at the bottom of the retrenchment the gold price was up threefold from its $35 low, and that gold went on to increase eightfold in price after the bull market resumed. It is thus important to recognize that cyclical retrenchments are a normal and healthy feature of a secular gold bull market.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Silver Uncertain Breakout Direction / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Clive_Maund

Is silver becoming a bearmarket, or is a bottom pattern completing that will lead to a major new uptrend soon? That is the big conundrum facing investors and speculators in the sector and in this update it will become apparent that the situation must resolve itself with a decisive move soon, one way or the other.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold's Next Big Move, Which Direction? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Clive_Maund

Is a top of some significance forming in gold, or is a consolidation pattern completing that will lead to a major new uptrend soon? That is the big conundrum facing investors and speculators in the sector and in this update it will become apparent that the situation must resolve itself with a decisive move soon, one way or the other.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold and Silver Enter Period of Low Volatility and Disinterest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and Silver have been correcting multi-year advances. In this article we illustrate what ultimately develops as these corrections progress into consolidations. Namely, volatility declines, general interest in the market evaporates and this produces sentiment that is conducive for an important bottom. Because these are long-lasting, sustained corrections, the bottoms take time to develop. There are many fits and starts and as a result, most bottoms are not obvious until months after the fact. We provide some charts to help understand what is currently taking place and what we can expect going forward.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Weighing the Evidence of Crude Oil and Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Frank_Holmes

The MSCI Emerging Markets and the S&P 500 indices have increased double digits since the beginning of the year. Investors should be thrilled, but instead of cheers, the only sounds the markets are hearing are crickets. Many have been asking, where are the investors?

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold Stocks Half Way? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

With the calendar moving into the second third of the year, some of the popular delusions of the crowd seem increasingly remote possibilities. Have we been waiting a year for QE-3? But like a broken clock, those forecasting QE-3 to be imminent still have a shot at being correct. At the same time, some are chopping down the AAPL tree. Already down 10% from the high, the leading delusionist on that stock is still forecasting a $1,000 price. Gold seems well short of $2,000. Would that be still or again? And the pick up trucks loaded with Silver ready for the ride to $100? Well, seems most have broken down in the middle of the road. And the Gold stocks? Perhaps about half way to the bottom.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold, Stocks and Euro All Down after China Manufacturing News / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Ben_Traynor

PRICES TO buy gold bullion on the wholesale market dropped to $1630 an ounce during Monday morning's London session – a 2.3% drop from where they started the month – while stock markets and industrial commodities also traded lower following the release of preliminary Chinese manufacturing data.

"Gold remains in a short-term bear channel," say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold Prices Trading Sluggish Ahead of Fed Meeting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: GoldCore

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,632.00, EUR 1,240.97, and GBP 1,014.42 per ounce. Friday's AM fix was USD 1,640.00, EUR 1,246.30 and GBP 1,018.25 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $31.29/oz, €23.80/oz and £19.43/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,564.50/oz, palladium at $664/oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold Stocks Continue to Underperform Gold Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Willem_Weytjens

I have written (and warned my readers) several times about the weak performance of the HUI index compared to the price of Gold.
Despite general stock markets approaching pre-crisis highs and Gold holding up quite well so far, the HUI index has dropped quite substantially. The combination of weak performance of HUI stocks and the relatively “strong” action of Gold, caused the HUI index to underperform Gold dramatically.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Gold's Continuing Vulnerability / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Brian_Bloom

The investment world is currently full of paradoxes. For example, whilst the Gold Bugs Index (the $HUI which is made up of more speculative counters in precious metals) has been deteriorating strongly – see chart 1, courtesy stockcharts.com – the ratio of the $HUI/$XAU shows that the $HUI has been rising since early 2011.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

How to Make a Fortune Investing in Natural Gas / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: DailyWealth

Porter Stansberry writes: I am extremely bullish on natural gas.

For those of you who have been watching the price chart of natural gas... that probably seems strange. As you can see in the chart below, the price of natural gas has been trending down for years...

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Gold and Silver COT (CFTC – Commitment of Traders) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Submissions

Marshall Swing writes: Commercials added 2,372 longs and 2,484 shorts to end the week with 47.57% of all open interest 132,485,000 ounces net short, a small increase of 555,000 ounces.

Large speculators netted only -103 contract longs and covered -324 shorts for a net long position of 92,035,000 ounces, a increase of almost 1,105,000 ounces from the prior week.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Gold and Silver Miners Put Real Money Where Their Mouth Is / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Eric_McWhinnie

In precious metals, it has been a trying time for miner investors. Despite gains in bullion prices, gold and silver miners have lagged behind. Since January 2011, the SPDR Gold Trust has gained 15.5 percent, while the iShares Silver Trust has increased 2.5 percent. However, miner ETFs such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners and the Global X Silver Miners have both fallen 23 percent in the same period. While it may appear to be all doom and gloom in the mining stocks, the companies themselves are signaling better days ahead.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Many Signs Point to Gold Higher Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday surprised investors with a bigger-than-expected half-percentage-point cut to its key lending rate, sending it to 8%, saying the state of India's economy is "a matter of growing concern." Assuming a normal monsoon season, continuing improvement in industrial production and in the global outlook, the RBI said it expects growth for the current year at 7.3%. Inflation in India slowed less than expected in March. Indians, who love gold in any case, could turn to it as an inflation hedge. Meanwhile, the Indian Post office system is offering a 6% rebate on gold coins of various denominations for the forthcoming Akshaya Tritiya festival, which is one of the biggest gold buying festivals in the country.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

China Economy Dragging Commodities Lower / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Zeal_LLC

Commodities have been sinking like stones since late February, an unusual divergence from the rallying stock markets.  This relentless weakness has wreaked havoc on commodities sentiment, leading traders to abandon commodities stocks.  As we all try to make sense of this surreal bloodbath, one catalyst keeps coming up.  Western perceptions of the Chinese economy have been a real drag on commodities.

China is indeed one of the major drivers of this past decade’s secular commodities bulls.  As the world’s most-populous country, it has over 1.3b people who collectively consume vast amounts of resources.  China sports the fastest-growing major economy on the planet, which has recently catapulted it to become the world’s second largest after the US.  China is also the second-largest importer on Earth.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Silver Price Seen Over $40/oz in 2012 – Store of Value Remains Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: GoldCore

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,640.00, EUR 1,246.30, and GBP 1,018.25 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,642.00, EUR 1,249.91 and GBP 1,022.73 per ounce.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Inflation and Hidden Gold Taxation Historical Case Studies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012

By: Dan_Amerman

The number one reason investors buy gold is to protect against the government policies that create inflation. However, the government has "rigged the game" in such a way that the higher the rate of inflation, the more of a gold investor's net worth ends up with the government instead of the investor.

An examination of three historical case studies of long-term gold investment during a time of substantial inflation shows how under existing law and tax rates, the US federal government used the 1-2 combination of inflation and taxes to not only take all gold investor profits, but to confiscate part of the investors' starting net worth as well. These three real world analyses explore gold acting as a perfect inflation hedge, gold experiencing asset inflation, and gold experiencing asset deflation.