Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Real Interest Rates Explain the Gold Price Perfectly…Too Perfectly? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Andrew_Butter

The latest idea coming out of the “Hedge-Fund” camp that I saw to explain the recent meteoric climb in the price of gold as expressed in US dollars is “Real” interest rates.

Leaving aside what is “real” and what is illusion for a moment, if you take a timeline of the US 10-Year Treasury yield and subtract the published CPI number you get to one (of many) estimates of “real” interest rates. Then you cumulate that number, you can build a reasonably decent “explanatory” model to explain the price of gold, since say January 2002.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Geopolitics and the World's Gold Holdings / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Michel_Chossudovsky

Both the US dollar and the Euro currency systems are in crisis. During a period of waning currencies, where the value of money (in paper and/or electronic form) is tumbling, the strategic control over gold reserves and gold production is of paramount importance.

The issue is not only who controls the stock of central bank gold reserves, but who, namely which countries, control the production of mine gold.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Silver Forecast $52 to $56 by Mid 2011 Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: GoldRunner

Back on February 18th I wrote an editorial showing that Silver could rocket up to $52 to $56 by mid-year.  At the time of the writing Silver was sitting a little above $32 on the price chart.  The original chart work was based off of the fractal chart work I do with Silver from previous fractal time periods.  So far the rise in Silver appears to be right on track for our expected targets to be approached into mid-year.  I will post a link to the original article, below, for your perusal.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Where Next for Gold,Silver and the Stock Market SP500 Index? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: David_Banister

The market action in both the precious metals complex and the equities markets has been moving in clearly defined Fibonacci and Elliott Wave patterns for quite some time now. All of the recent peaks and valleys in both areas can be clearly demarcated with Fibonacci retracements and crowd behavioral patterns both in advance and in hindsight. I’ve written about this phenomenon numerous times publicly and every week for my subscribers as well.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Silver Black Swan if Rampant Speculation is Not Reigned In / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Dian_L_Chu

If you think the crude oil market has gone totally out of control in the past month or so, observe the Silver.  The Silver market has basically gone parabolic the week of April 17, going from $41.75 on April 15th to $46.69 on April 21st--a 12% move in 5 trading days, topping off the move with a 5% move on Thursday (See Chart). 

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Why Bank and Debt Crises are Helping the Gold and Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Some months back we pointed out that in their present form, banks had become the arteries and veins of the financial worlds with central banks the heart. Unfortunately, banks are driven solely by the profit motive. As they grew into every aspect of people's financial lives, they failed to take on the corresponding social responsibilities that they came with it.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

What's with $1,500 Gold and $42 Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: The_Gold_Report

As gold and silver continue their spectacular rise, The Gold Report checked in with Midas Letter Publisher and Editor James West to get his take on the situation. James, always strongly opinionated, sees this as the beginning of a global revolution that could result in long-term opportunities for gold and silver juniors.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Gold Investment Opportunities Emerge in the Americas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: The_Gold_Report

From Quebec, Canada to Sonora, Mexico, House Mountain Partners Founder Chris Berry constantly uncovers new opportunities in the Americas. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Chris outlines the geopolitical changes that are driving renewed interest in areas considered too risky or not profitable enough in the past.

The Gold Report: Investing in junior mining companies across the Americas requires balancing risk and reward. What has changed in countries like Colombia, where violence and corruption hampered investment in the past, that make it worth considering investing in gold and nickel companies today?

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Silver Crash 2006 vs Silver Today, Does it look Familiar? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Submissions

Willem Weytjens writes: First of all, here is an update of a chart I posted 3 weeks ago…

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Silver Shorts Feel the Burn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Clif_Droke

Silver has stolen the spotlight among investors in recent days after surging nearly $50/oz. Lost in all the commotion, however, are the wildly disparate rumors accompanying silver's rally. It's hard to believe that it has been only a week since a widely circulated story concerning a large hedge fund which supposedly made a "gargantuan" bet against silver. This story, which smacked of being planted by speculative interests, was circulated by some otherwise reputable financial publications.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Gold, What to Watch out for in Early May / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

We have written before that institutional investors are going to wake up one day and realize that they need to buy gold for their portfolios. Well, that's beginning to happen.

This week the Texas teachers’ pension fund, one of the largest college endowments, announced that it has placed 5% of its assets in gold bullion, nearly $1 billion's worth, in excess of 650,000 ounces at today’s prices. It is interesting to note that the fund chose to take physical possession of the bullion rather than buy it through a gold ETF.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Lease Rates Show Greater Silver Interest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In December of 2010, we looked at silver lease rates to see how a recent spike might affect metals.  Then, it was out of the norm to see a spike in the lease rate, which often corresponded with a bid to borrow silver for the short-term.  Today, silver lease rates are starting to normalize above zero, which means that demand to borrow silver in the short-term is becoming a constant, and that investors are now starting to price in recent history into the future.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Impact of Chinese and Indians Climbing the Protein Ladder / Commodities / Food Crisis

By: Richard_Mills

Over the next fifty years, as we add another 4.5 billion people to the world's population, global demand for food will increase almost 70% if population growth predictions are correct.

Already approximately 1 billion people go to bed hungry each night. Somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds - most are children under the age of five.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Cornering the Silver Market is Impossible at Current Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Submissions

SilverDoctors write : Rumors of a corner of silver in process have been swirling overnight.

A cornering of silver by a billionaire is in process? Really? Here’s the definition of Cornering of the Market from Wikipedia, “In finance, to corner the market is to purchase enough of a particular stock, commodity, or other asset to allow the price to be manipulated, by analogy to the general business jargon where a company described as having "cornered the market" has a very high market share. The one attempting to corner a market hopes to gain control of enough of the supply of the commodity to be able to set the price for it.”

Friday, April 22, 2011

What's Behind the Crude Oil Spike to $112 and Why There's More to Come / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Kent Moors, Ph.D. writes: Crude oil prices rose for the third straight day yesterday (Thursday) - with more of the same to come.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery rose to $111.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded as high as $112.48, the highest intraday price since April 11. Crude prices are up by a full third so far this year.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Metals Market Equations Are No Longer Simple / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: HRA_Advisory

World events continue to signal support for hard assets, but caution is still advised. News in the copper space is as much about consolidation of the players as the metal itself right now. The $7 bid by China Minmetals for Equinox Minerals (EQN-T, ASX) has offered some support for other mid tier copper assets. The Minmetals bid requires EQN to drop its own bid for Lundin Mining (LUN-T, LUNMF-Q) that had already squelched the planned merger of LUN with Inmet Mining (INM-T, IEMMF-Q). EQN had already merged with an Australian junior to acquire its Saudi copper mine development that is to begin out put late this year. To this has just been added a take-over bid by Capstone Mining (CS-T, CSFFF-Q) for Far West (FWM-T, FWMLF-Q) and its copper-iron project in Chile, with an assist from state owned Korea Resources Corp. Small and mid tier copper producers are focused on securing growth assets of the right scale as Asia gets more aggressive in ensuring supplies for its markets.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Silver Set to Soar as Fiat Paper Currencies Fold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: John_Browne

As a result of active "demonetization" efforts by the IMF and its member central banks, gold and silver have experienced the type of volatility that has given conservative investors reasons not to perceive the metals as dependable cash alternatives. Instead gold and silver have become known as the asset class to hold as a hedge against inflation.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Debunking the Anti Gold Investing Propaganda / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Casey_Research

A meme is now circulating that gold is in a bubble and that it's time for the wise investor to sell. To me, that’s a ridiculous notion. Certainly a premature one.

It pays to remain as objective as you can be when analyzing any investment. People have a tendency to fall in love with an asset class, usually because it’s treated them so well. We saw that happen, most recently, with Internet stocks in the late ‘90s and houses up to 2007. Investment bubbles are driven primarily by emotion, although there's always some rationale for the emotion to latch on to. Perversely, when it comes to investing, reason is recruited mainly to provide cover for passion and preconception.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Bullish on Unconventional Crude Oil Investment Plays / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: The_Energy_Report

Pain at the pump for consumers is windfall time for E&P companies. When the low-hanging fruit of old oil and gas fields is exhausted, companies are incentivized to move to new and different regions where the potential reward profile might justify the inherent risk of difficult or unexplored environs and potential political upheaval. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Pathfinder Asset Management Associate Portfolio Manager Taylor MacDonald tells investors where he's finding new ways to play growing energy demand.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Playing the Move in Natural Gas / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Mike_Paulenoff

A review of natural gas futures shows the chart pattern exploded above 4.20-4.25 resistance. The iPath Dow Jones UBS Natural Gas (GAZ), however, has not followed the same path.

GAZ has stalled, perhaps owing to its premium price 3-4 weeks ago in its relationship to underlying natural gas prices. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have played catch-up, perhaps moving the GAZ-U.S. Natural Gas ETF (UNG) underlying natural gas price relationship more into line.