Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, April 15, 2011
Gold and Silver Reach New Record Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold and silver have reached new all-time and 31-year record highs in trading in London this morning. Silver is particularly strong and the euro particularly weak on sovereign debt contagion concerns.
Inflation and sovereign debt fears are leading to continued safe haven demand. It is as important as ever to note that the record highs are nominal highs and inflation adjusted gold and silver remain a long way from their respective highs of $2,400/oz and $140/oz in 1980. These inflation adjusted highs remain viable long term price targets.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Gold, Silver and Stocks in a Financial Panic / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Gold is resilient, bouncing off its tentative right shoulder support. Silver is just awesome, taking no prisoners.
The commodity commentary on the Bloomberg network was particularly ridiculous today. They drew a parallel between the commodity rise into 2008 and the subsequent sharp decline with the rise into 2011, suggesting that there will be a similar decline, without ever mentioning the cause, using ominous sounding words and innuendo.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Gold Guru on What the Mainstream Financial Press Talking Heads Don't Understand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: The price of gold has soared by nearly $1,200 in the last 10 years.
Today, it's around $1,450 an ounce. A decade ago, it was $260. That's a more-than-fivefold rise in the price of gold in a decade – which dwarfs the gains of the housing bubble of 2006.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Will Gold and Silver Survive the Double Dip? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
It is rare in recent history for precious metals to appreciate in parallel with the broader stock market. Yet, this has been the case in the two years since the stock market began crawling out of the wreckage of the 2008 financial crisis. Although metals have vastly outperformed US equities over that time frame, it is noteworthy that stocks have gone up at all. Since January 2, 2009, the S&P 500 stock index is up just about 50%. Over the same time, gold is up 68% and silver is up a staggering 267%. With rising interest rates, oil at over $100 a barrel, and the recovery running out of steam, many investors are wisely asking if the markets are set for a sharp pullback. Given the correlation that we have seen across asset classes, some are making the seemingly logical conclusion that metal prices are vulnerable.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Crude Oil Near 3 Year High As Unrest Persists in the Middle East / Commodities / Crude Oil
By Marin Katusa, Casey Research : With the civil war in Libya now entering its third week, Egypt moving haltingly towards free elections, and hundreds dead in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain after a month of anti-government protests in each country, the Middle East is rife with instability. On Wednesday, April 6, that instability pushed the spot price of Brent oil above US$123 per barrel, a high not seen since August 2008 when prices were crashing from an all-time peak of US$147.50 on the eve of the financial crisis.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Natural Gas Pierces Resistance / Commodities / Natural Gas
After whipsawing to the downside to 4.06 immediately after this morning's inventory data, natural gas futures have reversed sharply to the upside and pierced key resistance around 4.20/21.
Natural gas made a significant multi-year low on March 7 at 3.805. The first minor upmove in a new upleg ended on March 27 at 4.548, after which a correction ensued that ended Monday morning at 3.99.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
State of Utah Recognizes Gold Coins As Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
The state of Utah has recently enacted a law by which the gold coins issued by the US Mint are to be considered money and, therefore, not subject to capital-gains taxation. The law does not apply to foreign-issued coins, such as South African Krugerrands, by far the most popular precious-metal coin in the world. Nor does the law apply to privately issued coins, such as the so-called Ron Paul Dollar. Capital gains on the US-issued coins would still be subject to federal taxation.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Gold and the Dollar Death by Slow Fuse or Eventual Crushing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
I decided to apply Martin Armstrong's Pi model of Economic Confidence to the demise of the dollar and predictive gold. The graphic below shows the ascent of Gold to new highs of $8300 dollars in 2018 based on the 4.3 year cycle and the private long cycle of 51.6 years that Armstrong developed. As Armstrong said last week in this article it looks like the period 2015.75 through to 2020.05 is going to be a lot worse than this present one has been.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Peak Uranium - And Other Threats To Nuclear Power / Commodities / Uranium
We have nearly all heard about Peak Oil despite doubts on very basic elements like how we define “oil” compared with oil condensed from natural gas, but the possibility of there simply not being enough uranium to keep present and planned reactor fleets going is new.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Gold Slips, "Huge Speculation" Makes Asian Silver Market "Dysfunctional" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
LONDON'S WHOLESALE-MARKET price for gold fell against a rising US Dollar in London on Thursday, dropping back to $1454 per ounce but rising for Euro and Sterling buyers as world stock markets fell alongside commodities.
Major-economy government bond price rose, nudging 10-year US Treasury yields down to 3.44%.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Euro Falls against Gold and Particularly Silver as Greek 10-Year Yield Surges Over 13.2% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Gold is tentatively higher against the euro but mixed against other currencies, while silver is higher again in most currencies. Both probed upward this morning and are exhibiting signs that they may push higher prior to a much anticipated correction.
The Greek 10-year yield has just surged over 13.2% and this is leading to falls in the euro and risk aversion with equities, commodities and oil falling.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Crude Oil Set to Break $150 by Mid Summer / Commodities / Crude Oil
Jason Simpkins writes: Money Morning predicted in its 2011 Outlook series that oil prices would see $100 a barrel by summer. And that's proven to be true - but not entirely for the reasons we discussed.
In addition to the increased demand we talked about in January, violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has driven oil prices into the stratosphere. The price of light, sweet crude climbed above $112 a barrel last week, up more than 22% from where it started the year.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Gold Targets $1500, Soaring Silver Hammers the Shorts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Since early January 2011 the USD has lost 7.4% of its value and needs to manage any further decline or stabilize at this point in order re-assure holders of this currency, that all is not lost. As we see it there will be short rallies on the way down but the ‘74′ level will soon be breached and then its down the ‘72′ level. The technical indicators are firmly in the oversold zone so a short rally is possible at this juncture, however, as the chart shows we have a had a number of rallies already this year that have amounted to nothing.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Gold Forecast Not to Hit $2,000/oz / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Not long after a New York Times headline quipped, "Now the Gold Rush Is to the Exits," Campbell & Lee Investment Management Cofounders, Bruce Campbell and Joe Lee, hung out their shingles in Oakville, Ontario. That was late in 1999. With the price of the precious metal (PM) sinking toward its lowest level since 1975, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, the new investment management company had no reason to focus on PM companies. Obviously, as Bruce tells us in this exclusive Gold Report interview, the company has since shifted its focus.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Silver Offers the Only Positive Return / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
When thinking about an investment, the best managers look for returns that beat what they perceive to be average. In the long run, wealth is a relative measure—today, even the poorest people are wealthier than the richest people five hundred years ago, though we’d still say that today’s poor are poor.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Soaring Gold and Silver Prices Amidst Inflationary Pressures / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Neither government nor anyone is smarter than the markets. As they say the trend is your friend. All you have to do is get on for the ride. It’s really as simple as that. The trick is picking the trend. We were fortunate enough to pick gold and silver in June of 2000. We went long and stayed long all those years only occasionally making a trade. Every time there was a correction we recommended further purchases.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Calculating the "Fair Value" of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
In the absence of cashflow, judging gold's present "fair value" means analysing it like an insurance actuary would...
WITH ITS incredibly constant supply and unsurpassed history as a store of value, physical gold is the wise choice for retained wealth during currency crises. But for new buyers, is today's price too high?
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Gold and Silver Rally, Economic Backdrop "Got to Be Good" for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold investment bars in wholesale trading regained half of the week's near-2% drop on Wednesday in London, touching $1462 per ounce as global stock markets ticked higher and government bonds eased back.
European Brent crude oil rallied to $121 per barrel after losing 6% in two trading days, while Kuwait suspended oil exports due to sandstorms, and Libya's new "contact group" of politicians called for Colonel Gaddafi to quit.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Central Banks Favour Gold and AAA Rated Government Debt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Stocks are higher in Europe after gains in Asia despite losses on Wall Street yesterday. Gold and silver are showing tentative gains after 1% declines yesterday. Gold is particularly strong in yen terms as the yen has weakened against all 16 of its major peers (see cross currency tables). China’s yuan climbed to a 17-year high versus the dollar but is lower against the precious metals.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Why Is Silver Rising Faster Than Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Silver is breaking new records today at almost $40 and gold is touching new highs of $1,458. Looking back, over the last few years we have seen gold rise from around $312 to $1,458 a rise of 4.67 times and silver from around $6 to $40 a rise of 6.67 times.
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