Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Gold to Silver Ratio - Preparing for THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In the first part of the Preparing for THE Bottom series, we emphasized the need to be sure to stay alert and focused in the precious metals market, even though it may not appear all that interesting. We argued that preparing for the big moves in gold that are likely to be seen later this year should prove extremely worth one’s while. In the second part of the series, we discussed when, approximately, one can expect the key bottom in gold to form (reminder: this winter appears a likely target).

In today’s issue, we would like to feature one of the signs that are likely to confirm that the final bottom is indeed in. The thing that a relatively small number of investors follow (mostly those who have been interested in the sector for some time) are the intra-market ratios. One of the most important ones is the gold to silver ratio and to be honest, it’s no wonder that this ratio is so important – after all, gold and silver are the parts of the precious metals sector that practically everyone recognizes.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Bull or Bear? Elliot Meets Bressert / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

I would like to provide an update on what my expectations are with respect to Gold and PMs for the remainder of 2017.

First off, I now no longer feel that early May hosted the ICL for Gold and PMs but I do expect an ICL to unfold in Gold over the next week or so (see my last chart of this post). This update will focus mostly on Cycles analysis but will also bring in some elements of Elliot Wave (EW) Theory that will give you some insight of what I am looking for at the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in Gold.  While I am not an EW expert or practitioner, I do understand its concepts and basic rules enough to use it in conjunction with my Cycle work.  Both methodologies try to use Major Lows to determine the direction of the longer Cycles or Waves.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Silver Price Plunge Is Nearing Completion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver’s plunge is nearing completion – Bloomberg analyst
– Silver’s 10% sharp fall in seconds remains “mystery”
– Plunge despite anemic global supply and strong demand
– Total silver supply declined in ’16 – lowest level since ’13
– Silver mine production down in ’16, first time in 14 years
– Total silver supply decreased by 32.6 Mln Ozs in 2016
– Supply deficit in 2016- fourth consecutive year (see table)
– “Falling knife” caution but opportunity presenting itself

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Price Remains in Downtrend from 1295.94 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking below the major support trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the May 9 low of 1214.17 on its daily chart, XAUUSD continued to break below the key support at 1214.17, confirming that the uptrend from the December 2016 low of 1122.56 had completed at the June 6 high of 1295.94 already.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Soaring Global Demand for Lithium Presents Triple-Digit Profit Scenario / Commodities / Lithium

By: WallStreetNation

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Gold Price Outlook Increasingly Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund is scouring the charts and finds strong bullish developments for gold that could mark the start of a growth phase.

I had thought that gold might escape its usual seasonal malaise this year, but it didn't and went into a rather sharp downtrend and dropped again quite sharply on Friday. The good news though is that this drop has not impacted the big picture at all, which remains strongly bullish, and a bonus is that this drop has flushed out a lot of remaining weak hands, as we will see when we come to the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) charts and set the sector for a reversal soon leading to a strong uptrend.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Futures Markets Give High-Volume Gold, Silver Trading Discounts to Governments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my privilege now to welcome in Chris Powell, Secretary-Treasurer at the Gold Antitrust Action Committee, also known as GATA. Chris is a long-time journalist and hard money advocate, and through his tireless efforts at GATA he is working to expose the manipulation of the gold and silver markets. Through GATA's work over the years. Some important revelations have come to light, which quite honestly should concern everyone.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Gold Stocks Summer Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have drifted lower over the past month, slumping back to major support.  This weakness has naturally intensified the bearish psychology engulfing this small contrarian sector, traders want nothing to do with it.  Yet summers typically see gold and its miners’ stocks meander sideways to lower.  These summer doldrums spawn the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year in gold stocks.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Gold Multi-month Consolidation Continues but Should Near Completion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Saturday, July 08, 2017

Gold Awaits Fundamental Shift / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we wrote that Gold’s poor performance in real terms could reflect its worsening fundamentals. Real interest rates are rising because the rate of inflation has peaked and bond yields are rebounding. It is a double whammy for precious metals. This is not permanent but something that could last a few quarters. Gold needs inflation to accelerate or bond yields to drop significantly. One historical analog argues that with respect to the Federal Reserve, a change in policy could be part of the fundamental shift needed to drive Gold into a bull market.

Friday, July 07, 2017

Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver prices ‘flash crash’ before rebound
– Silver hammered 7% lower in less than minute in Asian trading
– Silver fell from $16 to $14.82, before recovering to $15.89
– Silver plunge blamed on another ‘trading error’
– Gold similar ‘flash crash’ last week and similar recovery
– Hallmarks of market manipulation as $450 million worth of silver futures sold in minute
– Trading ‘errors’ always push gold and silver lower. Why never higher?
– ‘Flash crashes’ increasingly frequent in precious metals, yet rarely happen in stocks and bonds
– Rapid recovery from frequent raids bodes well for precious metals
– Silver coins and bars accumulated on dips by ‘stackers’

Friday, July 07, 2017

Gold Seasonal - The Golden Age Has Just Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed two asset classes that tend to suffer performance problems in most years until the autumn, namely stocks and bitcoin.

I thought you might for a change want to hear of an asset that will be in a seasonal uptrend over coming months.

Such assets do of course exist, and one that has particularly good prospects at the moment is gold.

Friday, July 07, 2017

GOLD Flashing Bullish Signals Again, USDJPY Contracting Triangle in Play / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Fed Monetary Policy Report.

USDJPY has spent the week going sideways in a contracting range.
This price action is beginning to look like a contracting triangle,
Possibly within wave '4' pink.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

6 Things Precious Metals Naysayers Get Dead Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Stefan Gleason : Answering the Most Common and Current Objections

Gold attracts its fair share of detractors. But the most common objections to gold as money, and as a safe-haven asset within an investment portfolio, are misplaced. Anti-gold myths are ubiquitous.

Mega billionaire Warren Buffett remarked derisively of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Don’t Hold Your Breath For Deeper OPEC Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rally in oil prices over the past two weeks came to a halt on Wednesday on news that OPEC is actually exporting more oil than previously thought.

A month ago, oil prices appeared to be higher than they should have been, with weak demand, elevated inventories, and a recognition that the nine-month OPEC extension would be inadequate to balance the market. Oil sold off and dropped to the mid-$40s and below. Oil traders then bought on the dip, and bid prices back up over the past two weeks. Now, prices again look like they could be reaching an upper limit.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Few People Grasp What Geopolitical Power Shale Oil Gives To The US / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: John_Mauldin

I know no one else with George Friedman’s breadth and depth of insight into today’s world.

Right at the root of today’s major global issues, we find one little word: oil. So, I’ve asked George to bring us up to speed on the geopolitical implications of a remarkable phenomenon: the US shale oil industry.

There is good news here for the US, but big bad news for Saudi Arabia and Russia—and in fact any country with oil exports as its main source of income.

But without further ado, I’ll let George and his team enlighten you on this development themselves.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Enter The Natural Gas Cartel / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The King Dollar is mortally wounded. Many notice but the masses seem largely unaware. Since 1971, the Gold Standard has been removed from its anchor position. But since 1973, the Petro-Dollar has taken its place. It has called for crude oil sales led by the Saudis and OPEC to be transacted in USDollar terms, for oil surpluses to be stored in USTreasury Bonds, and for some kickbacks from the Saudis to the USMilitary complex for weapons purchases. Of course, the US is ready willing and able to create strife and to foment wars whereby the Arab oil monarchs will need more weapons. Since 2014, many events have pointed to the crippled condition of the important link between the USDollar and crude oil. The price has plunged by 50% of more, and not recovered. It is currently lurching in the nether bounds near the $45 level. Anything less than $65 to $70 per barrel is very dangerous for keeping the oil sovereigns afloat and for keeping the US energy sector solvent. Witness the Wall Street banks having tremendous problems with impaired bonds and toxic energy portfolios. They seem not resolvable. They cannot keep the oil price over $50, a sign of their impotence.

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Gold Price Broke Below Major Support Trend Line / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

XAUUSD’s downside movement from the June 6 high of 1295.94 extended to as low as 1218.45, breaking below the major support trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the May 9 low of 1214.17 at 1232 on its daily chart. Gold price is now facing another key support at 1214.17.

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Gold GLD ETF Recognition Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today is called a recognition day when it finally becomes apparent that the trading range is ending and you have a massive breakout move. We can still get a backtest to the breakout point which would represent the 2nd area to take a position. Today GLD gapped below the H&S backtest to the bottom rail of the black bearish rising wedge and that very important S&R line which last week I said came into play around the 117 area.

Monday, July 03, 2017

Gold Up 8% In First Half 2017; Builds On 8.5% Gain In 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold up 8% in first half 2017; builds on 8.5% gain in 2016
– U.S. dollar down 6.5% – worst quarter in seven years
– Gold higher in all currencies except Draghi’s euro 
– Gold outperforms bonds; similar gains as stock indices
– S&P 500 and Dax outperform gold marginally