Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Gold’s Seasonality: Time to Get Positioned Ahead of Strongest Months / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Despite the recent weakness, the price of gold is still up 9% year to date and may be poised for a strong second half of 2017. This is not unusual: the yellow metal also had a strong start in 2016, only to give back some gains but ended the year in an uptrend, setting up a rally as the calendar moved to 2017.

So is there a seasonal pattern to the gold price? To answer that question, we dissected gold’s performance dating back to 1975 and identified some trends investors can use to their advantage.

Friday, June 23, 2017

EUR/JPY Exchange Rate and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We argued many times that the yellow metal behaves as a currency rather than as a commodity. Hence, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rates affect the price of gold. In previous editions of the Market Overview, we analyzed the impact of the U.S. dollar and its exchange rate with the Euro and the Yen on the gold market. We pointed out that gold is negatively correlated with the greenback, so it moves in tandem with the Japanese or European common currency, as they are the major rivals of the U.S. dollar.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Crude Oil, Fresh Lows and Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold moved lower once again after government data showed an increase in crude oil production, which offset a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude hit a fresh 2017 low. What’s next for the commodity?

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Friday, June 23, 2017

Gold and Silver Are "Asymmetric" Trades / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith: An asymmetric trade is a situation where investing a relatively small amount of money holds the potential of yielding a profit many times the amount of the original sum at risk. In other words, where the risk to reward is skewed massively in the direction of reward.

This took place recently with Bitcoin (BTC). Is this conceptually different from bets made years ago on Microsoft, Cisco, Amazon, or Facebook, which yielded hundreds of percent profit to intrepid investors? Does it have relevance to the possible returns during the next few years for those who hold physical gold and silver?

Thursday, June 22, 2017

LOG 0.786 support in CRUDE OIL and COCOA / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Stephen_Cox

Originally written in the Wednesday JUN 21 MRI 3D Report,

CRUDE OIL GROUP- CLQ 17 (4253):  (W.D. GANN): Today is 19 trading days down from 52.00. 52×19= 988  Subtract 988 from 52.00 = 42.12 = the square of TIME and PRICE.  Today’s low = 42.05.

TIME: Today is 33a/May04 LOW, 7×7(G)d/APR12 TOP and 120(G)d/55.24 Jan03 TOP

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Ratio Combo Charts : Hidden Clues to the Gold Market Puzzle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update a few ratio combo charts as several are at a crossroad, which may shed some light on where the PM complex may be headed next. A couple of the ratio combo charts worked out extremely well in calling a bottom in January of 2016.

Lets start with the TLT:TIP ratio combo chart we looked at recently which shows if we’re experiencing inflation or deflation. When the ratio in black is falling it’s showing deflation and when it’s rising it’s showing inflation. From the 2011 high the general trend has been for deflation. About a year ago you can see the black ratio was rising in a pretty strong move up, but late last year and the first part of this year the ratio topped out and has begun to fall. The red arrows shows how the ratio is reversing symmetry down over the same area on the way up. For the time being there isn’t much in the way of support.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

This Chart Proves That Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

By Geopolitical Futures, Mauldin Economics : The US has benefited from the shale revolution more than any other country. Not only does it have vast shale formations, most of its wells are located within its territory. That means producers don’t have to compete for jurisdiction or share their profits.

Shale oil is enmeshed in shale rock, which is located thousands of feet beneath the Earth’s surface and is generally less permeable than other rock types—making deposits more difficult to access.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

• Millienials look for instant gratification
• Spend half of their income on leisure
• Instant gratification doesn’t work if need to save for the future
• Savings rates falling, few have retirement funds
• Important to understand marginal difference between spending and pleasure
• Future wealth depends on what you decide to keep and invest in now

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Gold Price is Facing Trend Line Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking below the bullish trend line from 1214.17 to 1258.92 at 1270 on its 4-hour chart, XAUUSD started a bearish movement from the June 6 high of 1295.94, and the bearish movement extended to as low as 1241.25. Further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at around 1230.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

GOLD Bullish at 3 Degrees of Trend! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Existing Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Strength in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks and Its Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday’s session was not like the previous ones – in the previous days, the precious metals sector moved lower together and mining stocks were leading the way. Yesterday, gold and silver declined, but miners were barely affected. Does this strength indicate a likely turnaround?

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Stephen_Cox

Here are 5 charts of WEEKLY CRUDE OIL, telling their interesting MRI 3D story (TIME, PRICE and DEPTH of 4 chart frames) on MAJOR WEEKLY TURNS. Some of these examples presented potentially low risk to high reward implications. The latest example was presented by CRUDE ADC (Daily) CLQ 17 (44.33) Monday.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, the black gold gained 1.15% and climbed to the previously-broken lower borer of the trend channel. Is this a verification of the earlier breakdown or something more?

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Elliott Wave Outlook for GOLD and USDJPY / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: FOMC Member Fischer Speaks, Current Account, FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

GDXJ Gold Stocks Massacre: The Aftermath / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Veteran investor Bill Gross' investment strategy offers lessons to all investors, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group.
GDXJ Rebalance

PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company) is the largest American-based, private investment company focused on bonds.

As of its last filing, it had over $1.51 trillion in assets under management—that is significant, and the man who founded the company, Bill Gross, has a lot to do with it.

Monday, June 19, 2017

7 Signs You Should Add Gold To Your Portfolio Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Stephen McBride : Gold got crushed in the post-election rally, but a little over five months into 2017, the yellow metal is up 10.5%—making it one of the best-performing assets of the year so far.

While the outlook for the US economy is more positive than it was 12 months ago, if we zoom out for a moment, the big picture “ain’t so rosy.”

Gold has historically done well in times of uncertainty and panic… and with these seven worrisome signs, there could be plenty ahead.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Bullish Palladium Supporting Commodities / Commodities / Palladium

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

The world is hooked on ‘Palladium’ because of its uses as an industrial metal and catalyst, the consumers are mainly automobile producers as it’s widely used in gasoline-based engine cars to curb harmful emissions from vehicles. Palladium surged +34% this year on expectations that supply will lag demand for a sixth straight year, beating the rest of commodities, combined with last year gains it results in an impressive 95% rally.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Gold Will Start Heading Higher On “Dwindling” Supply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

James Rickards via Daily Reckoning

Gold was down after the Fed’s hike, but I expect it to start heading higher again. Too many powerful forces are driving it behind the scenes. Dwindling physical supply is a major one.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Gold Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets, noting signs that gold stocks are near the end of their corrective consolidation.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Return of the Gold Bear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It was exactly one month ago we discussed our posture as a “bearish Gold bull.”

The gold mining sector hit a historic low nearly 18 months ago but this new cycle has struggled to gain traction as metals prices have stagnated while the stock market and the US Dollar have trended higher. Unfortunately recent technical and fundamental developments argue that precious metals could come under serious pressure in the weeks and months ahead.

First let me start with Gold’s fundamentals, which turned bearish a few months ago and could remain so through the fall. As we have argued, Gold is inversely correlated to real interest rates. Gold rises when real rates fall and Gold falls when real rates rise.