Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : Year to date, the price of gold is up 12%. This is not unusual: the yellow metal also had a strong start into 2016, rising 18% over the same period.
So is there a seasonal pattern to the gold price? To answer that question, we dissected gold’s performance dating back to 1975 and identified some trends investors can use to their advantage.
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Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals are on the verge of a legendary move, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group, and details the indicators he watches for.
With the first round of the French elections over and a potential beginning of the end for the Eurozone might be within sight, this is only one of the macro-political events that are causing gold prices to be within 1% of shuttering its 10-year resistance level.
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold Market Fractal Event / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“In the absence of a credible monetary standard, we expect no escape from the treadmill of rising debt, both US and globally, that outpaces economic growth. Income inequality, wage stagnation, overvaluation of financial assets, and speculation instead of productive investment are likely to be prolonged under the current monetary regime. Whether or not policy makers take a proactive approach to address monetary reform, the fact remains that gold is massively underpriced in all paper currencies. It would be preferable if the necessary adjustments could occur without a repeat of a 2008-like financial crisis. We give this possibility a chance, albeit slim. In any event, we expect a significant repricing of gold higher during the current administration, either by design or because of market events. Whenever a repricing happens, we expect broad grassroots support for that outcome.” – John Hathaway, Tocqueville Funds
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold IRAs: How to Lessen or Avoid That Pesky Capital Gains Tax / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Since we just finished tax season, many first-time gold investors might wonder what to do about their precious metals holdings. How are they taxed, and are there any legal ways to lessen those taxes?
Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum are considered capital assets, so you will have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell them for a profit.
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal. Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them. This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months. Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.
Virtually no one is excited about gold these days. Mainstream investors continue to ignore it like usual, while contrarians largely expect a lackluster sideways grind at best. This apathy is the natural result of gold’s recent consolidation between late February and mid-April. With 6+ weeks seeing no net progress, there was little to spark any enthusiasm. Thus gold gradually faded from speculators’ and investors’ radars.
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Saturday, April 22, 2017
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Richard_Mills
John Exter was an American economist and a member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System.
Exter is known for creating Exter's Pyramid - useful for visualizing the organization of asset classes in terms of risk and size.
When the credit system is expanding most money flows to the top of the pyramid - the increasingly speculative and illiquid investments. When the credit system comes under pressure and debt cannot be repaid, the items at the top of the pyramid get sold and money flows towards the bottom.
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Friday, April 21, 2017
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Silver, platinum and palladium see increased role as investment vehicles
– Increase in academic output on the white precious metals is in line with this
– Silver and particularly gold are safe haven assets
– Silver was a safe haven at times during which gold failed to be
– Platinum and palladium less so but have diversification benefits
– Silver manipulation is possible and indications of, if not legal proof
– Benefits platinum and palladium could provide as money not been fully addressed
– Main focus in investment drivers is price – not on drivers of physical demand
– Platinum, palladium and silver have different relationships with other assets and divergent abilities in hedging risk
– White precious metal investors should employ a buy-and-hold strategy
– Silver markets have become more efficient since 1977
– White precious metals are increasing in investment importance
– Research shows hedging role and diversification benefits of precious metals
Friday, April 21, 2017
French Elections and Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the potential impact of the European elections on the gold market. As the Dutch elections are behind us, let's see how the Wilders' defeat affected the markets and the political outlook for France, where people will vote for the president on April 23.
Investors reacted positively to the outcome of the Dutch election, relieved that populists did not win. European stocks and the euro rose, while the France-Germany 10-year bond yield spread declined after the elections. This is because Wilders' failure is considered to indicate that “the wrong kind of populism” is losing momentum.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
Gold Miners Intermediate Cycle Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017
By: Gary_Savage
The large volume surge in DUST a few days ago was the warning bell that the miners may have topped.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at todays charts I would like to thank Sir Plunger for putting on the short oil trade this week while I was recovering from surgery. You won't find a more through and in depth look at oil than what Sir Plunger offered. And wouldn't you know it his timing as usual was impeccable. Oil dropped almost 4% today.
Now lets turn our attention to the sector which many members have a love hate relationship with.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
Toward the New Gold-en Era / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Dan_Stinson
In the past half a decade, gold prices were fueled by negative rates. Now gold is driven by geopolitical risks, efforts at gold-backed trade and local prices.
Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom was that the continued recovery of the US economy would support rate hikes and thus the strengthening of the US dollar, which would pave way for gold’s further decline.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : On November 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the airwaves to declare that Rs500 and Rs1,000 banknotes—which made up 86% of the currency in circulation—would be invalid effective from midnight. While the policy created chaos at banks, the real story lies elsewhere.
When rumors of a ban on gold spread two weeks later, Indians began rioting. To quell the panic, the Finance Ministry was forced to release a statement saying there was “no plan to restrict gold holdings.”
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
The Last Time This Happened, Gold Rallied 20% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
John Grandits : With much of the price action in gold driven by sentiment and technical analysis, you should keep an eye on the broader trends, even if you consider yourself a buy-and-hold investor.
Traders use technical analysis to predict future market moves based on recent price action. Most of it sounds complicated, but it really boils down to simple math.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.
Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Harry_Dent
Many analysts have been so excited that gold broke to new highs, above $1,262, in late February.I was excited as well, but for a different reason.
I’d forecast that gold could bounce back just above the July 2016 highs of $1,373, to around $1,400 or $1,450.
And ANY bounce, no matter how high it went, would be a good place to get rid of any gold you’re still holding.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Silver production sees “huge decline” in Peru
– Production -12% in one month in 2nd largest producer
– Silver decline is due to ‘exhaustion of reserves’ in Peru
– GFMS recognise that ‘Peak Silver’ was reached in 2015
– Global silver market had large net supply deficit in 2016
– Silver rallied 13.5% in Q1 in 2017
– Base metal production accounts for 56% of silver mining
– Base metal demand under threat from global economy
– Own financial insurance of silver coins and bars
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Price Likely To Rise In A Concentrated Manner / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Hubert_Moolman
The long-term view of silver is extremely bullish, given that it is one of the most undervalued metals, today. It is evident that ideal economic conditions are present, for silver to rise for many years to come:
- All-time low interest rates, that are about to rise
- Over-valued stock markets
- Fragile international monetary system that is debt-laden to the full.
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
How Investors Can Buy Gold At A 6% Discount Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: HAA
Stephen McBride : Since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 13% while the S&P 500 is up 11%. One victim of the move into risk assets was gold, which plunged over 13% in the weeks following the election.
Although gold prices have since recovered some of their losses, the yellow metal’s drop has created a buying opportunity for those wanting to add bullion to their portfolios.
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