Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, November 17, 2016
Make Money Great Again: Vote for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Who could possibly have predicted the astounding results of the November 8th presidential election?
A lot of folks, it turns out. Better than 60 million at last count. But that doesn't include highly paid, and obviously over-paid, pollsters.
And it doesn't include "journalists," who showered their elitist agendas on television screens, in newsprint headlines and across cyberspace during the 17-month presidential campaign.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Islamic Gold – Important New Dynamic In Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
- Next month, 1.6 billion people will have a new ‘gold investment standard’
- Gold bullion investments to become accessible to 25% of planet
- Islamic finance market expected to grow to US$5 trillion by 2020
- Islamic asset classes have all under performed compared to gold
- In 10 years, gold has risen over 367% in US dollar terms and by more in currencies used in Islamic countries
- Gold bullion products additionally appealing to Islamic banks due to Basel III rules
- New Sharia Gold Standard will impact gold price
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Gold In The Headlines (a different perspective) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Investors Ditch Gold After Trump’s Win (Wall Street Journal 14Nov2016)
“Investors piled into gold when polls showed Donald Trump’s chances for victory were improving. Now that he has won the presidential election, they are selling.”
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
How To Determine The Future Price Of Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
We very often get the question from readers how to read charts, and how to determine the future price of an asset or stock. Given the interest of many investors in precious metals, and lots of reactions we received on our future price of gold 2017 article, we explain in this article how we determine the future price of silver. Readers who are not interested in this chart analysis tutorial can consult our silver price forecast 2017 for our expected future silver price in 2017.
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Thursday, November 17, 2016
Precious Metals Complex Update... / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
The inflection point in many of the different markets still continues to develop. The precious metals complex is approaching a very critical backtest to some important necklines we’ve been following. I added the GDXJ to the combo chart which shows the HUI, GLD, SLV and the GDXJ have all broken down below their respective necklines and are now in the process of backtesting those necklines from below. I can’t emphasize enough how critical this backtest is to the overall health of the impulse move out of the January low this year.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher yesterday, even though the USD Index moved higher as well, which had bullish implications. Based on the closing prices and the rally in mining stocks that took place in the second half of yesterday's session, it seems that closing our extra-large short positions and taking profits off the table early in the session was a good idea. However, that's not the only thing that changed in the precious metals market and the area surrounding it – some signs are not as clear, but just as important. Let's take a closer look at the charts for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Gold: What's Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.
We have argued in the past that for investors to consider any investment, including gold, in their portfolio, it needs to satisfy two conditions: it needs to exhibit low correlation to their existing investments; and there should be an expectation of a positive return. Let’s evaluate the changing investment landscape for gold in the context of the election:
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Non-USD Picture of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the markets open, oil bulls stopped further deterioration and triggered a rebound in the following hours. As a result, light crude erased most of earlier losses and closed the day above Friday’s low. What can we expect in the coming days?
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Not even a surprise Presidential election result could sever the bonds that have held prices in check for more than 5 years.
From a mainstream media perspective, the financial system is a neat little house of cards. Made to look like sturdy boxes on a hilltop; institutional pillars …. that are all the same. The cards are carefully controlled and non-random. They are rigged.
Precious metals will always be rigged to some degree.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Silver and the Train Wreck / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
The U.S. National Debt is a “train-wreck.” The official debt is nearly $20 trillion and the unfunded liabilities are $100 – $200 trillion, depending on who is counting.
- It can never be repaid. Implications are dire.
- Official debt doubles about every 8 years. Does $80 trillion of official debt in the early 2030s sound viable?
- Per Krugman there is no problem. Consider the source.
- Denial is not a winning strategy, but it does prolong the period before the crash.
- The losers in the crash will probably not be the financial or political elite. That leaves the rest of us.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
OPEC’s Bearish Report Provides Little Hope For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
Just one day after the IEA warned the world could drown in oil if production does not fall beneath demand sometime soon, OPEC released a new market whammy, offering up the cartel’s production figures, which largely jive with figures reported by the IEA yesterday: OPEC has increased its oil production.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed daily oil production for the cartel of 33.64 million barrels for October—up by 240,000 bpd on September—largely confirming the IEA’s report, although the international authority’s figure was a bit higher at 33.83 million bpd.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Mining Shares Are a Lousy Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
This year’s turnaround in Gold Mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over. They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Gold Commitments of Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
No wonder gold got clocked like it did!
Hedge funds were actually busy adding more longs and covering shorts over the past week’s reporting period. As soon as those downside support levels were taken out after the election results were digested, gold bulls were getting mauled in a big way.
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump Won. Here’s what YOU should do next / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
A lot of people are in shock this morning…But the election of Donald Trump didn't shock me.
For the past few weeks, months even, I've had a feeling he would win.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Gold Prices Have Overreacted To The US Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
To say it has been a turbulent week in markets would be a dramatic understatement. The moves around the US election were nothing short of incredible. We wrote last week about fading a risk off move over the election, and whilst we expected market nerves to calm after an initial period of uncertainty, we were completely blindsided by the pace and magnitude of the reversal. Nowhere are we more surprised than in the yellow metal’s reaction to the result. Not only do we view it as an overreaction, but actually view the gold prices as significantly undervalued in the current environment.
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Monday, November 14, 2016
This Past Week in Gold, Silver and Copper / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a break in copper, as well as recent movements in the gold and silver markets.
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Sunday, November 13, 2016
Bonds, Commodities and Stocks / Commodities / Financial Markets 2016
Bonds – this past week saw one of the largest weekly selloffs in decades. After finally reaching negative rates in much of the world, has the 36 year bond bubble finally popped?
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Sunday, November 13, 2016
Krugman Gets His Alien Invasion – And Gold Bugs Get Paradise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
Nobel Prize winning economist and uber-liberal New York Times columnist Paul Krugman likes to illustrate his philosophy by noting that the threat of an alien invasion would help the economy by stimulating government spending.
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
Copper Price Forecast – Is Copper Ready To Start A New Bull Market In 2016? / Commodities / Copper
We have covered the copper market extensively in recent weeks. As the price of copper has truly gone balistic this week, it justifies another commentary with our view on where exactly copper stands, and where it can go from here. In other words, is the copper price forecast that bullish that it suggests a new bull market has started in 2016?
MarketWatch is one of the few media outlets that provided some (positive) coverage on copper today. Their article implicitly suggests a bullish copper price forecast for the remainder of 2016: “Copper futures, meanwhile, saw a weekly climb of nearly 11%, which was the largest in over five years, as traders bet that policies expected to be pursued by Republican Donald Trump’s administration could feed demand for industrial metals.” Though fundamental data, as brought forward in their piece, does not carry too much value in our opinion, we agree with their viewpoint.
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Saturday, November 12, 2016
The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
As the price of gold and silver came down sharply, many investors are asking what the future price of gold will be. Although we do not pretend to have a crystal ball, we observe sufficient signals in the charts to make a make a call about the future price of gold into 2017.
In general, the precious metals market has turned very sour. Gold registered it largest loss on a weekly basis since it crashed in 2013. Moreover, gold and silver miners, said to lead the precious metals complex, have truly crashed this week.
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