Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Presidential Election and Bear 'Super-Cycle' Stifle Growth in Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Contrary to what a number of gold bugs have observed, other experts believe recent drops in the gold price are not a bull market correction, but rather reflect a market stuck in a commodity bear "super-cycle." Coupled with a gloomy end-of-year outlook for stock markets, precious metals and miners could be in for a rough Q4.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
What in the World Happened to Gold and Silver Prices Last Week? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
By Clint Siegner : Gold and silver prices charged higher during the first 6 months of the year. They fell into a rut over the summer, and then hit the skids last Tuesday. Lots of bullion investors are wondering what in the world happened. There are three primary factors driving this price correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 10, 2016
This Past Week in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movement in the gold and silver markets, noting the cycle has reversed down.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The gold trading Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released Friday, shows the peculiarly timed gold sell off and much needed wash out of speculative longs out of the gold futures market last week sets gold up for lower prices, prior to moving higher again.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Gold and Silver PM Stocks Indices at an Emotionally Challenging Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
This past week there was some panic selling in the PM complex which is what we need to see happen to put in an important low. The HUI hit the 50% retrace at 195 for this first leg up in its new bull market, just under 200, which is an important physiological round number. Many times investor will place their sell/stops just under a round number like 40, 50 or 200 for instance, thinking if a stock drops below that important round number it’s time to exit that position. Many times a drop below these round numbers can be the reversal point for the next rally in the case of an uptrend.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Gold – Commitments of Traders – hedge fund longs liquidate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
Fortunately for we traders, the Commitments of Traders report did at least catch the big move lower on Tuesday of this week so we were able to get a peek inside the market to see what happened to those massive hedge fund long positions during this week’s meltdown in the gold price.
Here is the first chart. Hedge fund outright positions.
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Sunday, October 09, 2016
Gold Bull Markets Have Corrections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Human nature is nothing if not consistent. I’ve seen this dozens of times. At every single intermediate cycle low traders begin to doubt. No matter how strong the bull signals are, when a correction occurs traders find, or make up reasons for why the bear market is still in force or a new bear market is starting.
Folks, bull markets have to have corrections. They don’t signal the end of the bull, they are just profit taking events when price gets stretched too far above the mean, or when sentiment becomes too bullish.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Gold Bugs Great News - COT Report Playing Out As Usual, Means Lower Then Much Higher Prices Coming / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: John_Rubino
This year’s recovery in precious metals prices – and the sudden spike in gold/silver mining stocks – convinced a lot of people that a new bull market had begun. Last week’s brutal smack-down scared the hell out of many of the same folks.
The latest commitment of traders (COT) report implies that we should all relax. Things are playing out pretty much according to a script that’s been in place for decades — and which points to happy times by early next year.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
Crude's Post-OPEC Rally "Bears Watching" But "Natural Gas is More Interesting Market at this Juncture" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
New insights from Chief Energy Analyst Steve Craig
Elliott Wave International's Steve Craig offers you his latest insight on price trends in crude oil and natural gas.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks plummeted out of the blue this week, shattering their bull-market uptrends. Gold-futures speculators had been holding excessive long positions for months, weathering all kinds of selling catalysts. But once gold slipped through key support, long-side futures stop losses started to trigger unleashing cascading selling. Understanding this event and its implications is crucial for traders.
This week’s precious-metals carnage was a big surprise, erupting suddenly with no technical warning. Gold had been faring quite well after hitting its latest interim high of $1365 in early July. That was driven by heavy fund buying of gold-ETF shares in the wake of late June’s unexpected pro-Brexit vote. After those big capital inflows dried up, gold consolidated high. At worst by late August it had pulled back 4.1% to $1308.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
What Tools Does the Fed Have Left and How Could They Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Although the U.S. economy is currently expanding, we cannot rule out the possibility of a significant slowdown in the next few years. Some analysts argue that the Fed would be out of ammunition during the next crisis. Is that true? “Not necessarily,” as it turns out – the whole issue is a bit more complicated. We will now analyze what monetary weapons could the Fed use to stimulate the economy when the next recession strikes. The table below presents a short summary of available tools.
Friday, October 07, 2016
Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash” – Up 1.7% In Week As Gilts Sell Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Sterling gold surged 5% in less than a minute overnight in Asia with prices rising from £994/oz to £1,043.40/oz as sterling had a massive “flash crash.” Sterling plummeted in the second biggest fall in its history – only slightly less than the collapse after the Brexit vote.
Despite gold’s peculiar, sharp fall in dollar terms on Tuesday and 4.1% loss for the week, sterling gold is another 1.7% higher this week – from £1,010/oz to £1,027/oz – again showing gold’s importance in hedging against currency devaluation.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold Bull Still Intact, Use Pullback to Accumulate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
This week's drop in the gold price has spooked many investors, says money manager Adrian Day, who provides his perspective on the volatility.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold Mining Shares in a World of Hurt / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Dan_Stinson
The HUI is coming unglued on the charts with the index falling below long term chart support at the 200 day moving average in today’s session. It had not been below that key technical indicator since early February of this year.
We are also now seeing the 50 day moving average and the 100 day both moving lower.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold’s Second Waterfall Drop this Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_J_Kosares
We do not often find ourselves jogging the same track as the redoubtable Dennis Gartman who commands untold premiums for his advice, but now, it seems, he is verifying our suspicion of two days ago (Please see “Gold’s waterfall drop might be associated with the big drop in British sterling”) that something is amiss in London gold trading circles. Here is today’s chart – a second waterfall move in the gold market coincident with a second swan dive for the pound and Gartman’s take (snipped from ZeroHedge).
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.
On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold Price to Rally $80 into October 14th? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I admit I missed the GDX move down to 22.93 today, but at the same time it has presented itself with a great opportunity. The chart below is predicting GDX 29.84 by October 14. I am now leveraged, extremely leveraged with options for a strong rally ahead in gold and GDX.
A lot of negative bias now in the precious metals complex has me thinking the other way: and that is a massive short covering rally ahead. The e-wave look and cycles suggest the same. The "nonfarm payrolls report" on Friday could be (likely) the catalyst.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Projecting The Consolidation in Precious Metals Mining Stock Indices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to start off the Wednesday Report by looking at our current bull market in the HUI. I’m going to try and show you how our current setup is what one would expect in a bull market.
A stock or stock market does one of three things. First, it’s building out a reversal pattern that will reverse the current trend. Second, it’s building out a consolidation pattern that is consolidating the current trend. Third, the price action is impulsing after breaking out of either a reversal pattern or consolidation pattern. This is how markets works.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold for When Markets Go Bump in the Night / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Gold has worked down from Alexander’s time. . .When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.” – Bernard Baruch
We should not be surprised that the long-standing troubles at Deutsche Bank would appear to be coming to a head now. For global financial centers, October is often the cruellest month – a time when stock markets and whole economies have been known to go bump in the night. The Panic of 1907, the Crash of ’29, Black Monday 1987, the Friday the 13th crash 1989, the Asia Crisis of 1997, the downturn of 2002 and the launch to bear market in 2007 – all took place in the month of October.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
“Gold rebounded after the biggest drop in more than a year as investors reminded themselves of a world that’s beset by risk, from the prospect of further currency weakness to the final stretch of the U.S. presidential election,” according to Bloomberg today.