Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Is the tide turning for Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: David_Morgan

Chris Marchese writes: Has the tide begun to turn for the precious metals, notably silver and gold? In our view the turn began last year and if pressed to pinpoint one event, it would be following the failure of the Swiss referendum when the SNB de-pegged the franc from the euro. The Swiss National Bank was frustrated with the continued depreciation of the Euro. This had as much to do with sentiment as it did with the SNB clearing seeing the Euro might be going the way of the Rentenmark.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Gold And Silver - China's AIIB Spells U.s. Dollar Demise, Not Clear For Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [AIIB]. What is it? Yet another political disaster for the Obama administration as it leaves a wide swath of blunder after blunder in massively failed efforts to keep US allies from aligning with China's newest anti-US, anti- fiat Federal Reserve "dollar, AIIB. It will not just compete with the World Bank, a US- dominated financial entity, the AIIB will logically replace the World Bank in its own Asian sphere of influence.

Obama is pissed, a crass way to express his sentiment but an apt word choice for a crass politician with virtually no international diplomatic skills, and the AIIB amply exemplifies how true this is. The US continues to become more and more isolated through its ongoing war drums beating incessantly as the only viable solution the US has to offer.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Cocoa Commodity Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Cocoa

By: Austin_Galt

Cocoa is the basis of chocolate. The word cocoa is derived from the Spanish word cacao as the cacao tree is native to Latin America. It originated in the Amazon and Orinoco basins which are in Colombia and Venezuela. However, it is now West Africa which dominates world production of cocoa with the Ivory Coast being by far the largest producer.

Let's investigate the technicals of the cocoa price taking a top down approach beginning with the yearly chart.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Gold Sentiment Not Bearish Enough / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Precious metals are closing the week out with a good rally. The Federal Reserve nonsense proved to be a catalyst as it can be in either direction. Regardless of the Fed, the precious metals sector was oversold and due for a bounce. We wrote about that last week. Maybe this could be the bear market bottom. Maybe not. It concerns us that Gold is rebounding from an area of insignificant long term support amid sentiment that is not at a bearish extreme. Extreme bearish sentiment coupled with very strong support raises the probability of a major rebound or bear market bottom. I don't see that for Gold, yet.

Friday, March 20, 2015

FOMC is boxed in, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday was notable for deferring interest rate rises to some unspecified time in the future. This was realistic, given the continuing strength of the dollar, downward revisions to the inflation outlook, and economic weakness in virtually all industry surveys. The Fed's obvious problem in deferring a rise in interest rates is the continuing improvement in the unemployment statistics. However these are seriously flawed: for example in February housing starts fell sharply due to the bad weather, yet seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for residential construction jobs were said to rise by 17,200.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Silver Price Poised to Surge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver is scraping major support again, after a rough couple months where speculators left it for dead.  But today’s brutal lows and extreme universal bearishness are the perfect breeding ground for silver’s next big rally.  Investors are very underexposed, while speculators have big short positions that will have to be covered.  So as gold reverses decisively and paves the way, capital is going to flood back into silver.

Silver’s great allure today when it is down and out is hard for most to understand.  That’s because most traders mistakenly make linear assumptions in a nonlinear world.  They expect today’s market conditions to persist indefinitely.  But that’s not the way markets work, they are forever cyclical.  The best times to buy low before later selling high are when assets are universally despised and trading at super-low prices.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jeff_Clark

Have you noticed that some gold investors don’t seem very concerned about the current behavior of gold?

While the price remains weak and range-bound, some gold investors don’t seem worried about it at all.

The natural reaction to an asset you own losing a third of its value, with seemingly little motivation to move higher, is cheerless and maybe even depressing. So why aren’t they?

Friday, March 20, 2015

Gold Price Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Capital Economics chart-based analysis sees gold ending year higher at $1,400 per ounce
-Sees a remote possibility of gold falling to $850 per ounce
-A “Grexit” may cause gold to surge to $2,000 per ounce

Friday, March 20, 2015

Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Cheap Paper Money - Precious Metals Technical Outlook / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Submissions

Andy Farida writes: Central bankers are facing the most difficult task – balancing the economy which is on the verge of deflation or pumping it with cheap money to reflate the stitch up economic bubble. Worryingly there is no other option at hand and more negative interest rates in developed economies are looking likely in the coming months (especially in Europe). Meanwhile, the US economy (dubbed the Promised Land) continues to spur on the relentless task of spearheading growth and potentially raise interest rate for the first time. Analysts reckon that the BOE is running second on this issue too.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Silver Tales of Thales  / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Physical silver held in personal possession is a cheap option; an option being simply a choice. The best choices have a very low downside —and infinite upside. Options and optionality are not exclusive to financial markets. 

Silver, mainly because its price is dominated by commercial investment bank goliaths, has massive asymmetry. It’s super cheap relative to its real supply and demand fundamentals. All it needs is a storm to disrupt that hold. That storm is inevitable. 

Friday, March 20, 2015

GDXJ / Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

This key predictive ratio continues to struggle when it comes to gaining upside traction. It remains below the starting level of the year.

The HUI/Gold ratio looks a bit better but certainly nothing to write home about.

Friday, March 20, 2015

What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Janet Yellen sure has a way with the markets…

As the Fed Chair delivered her unexpectedly dovish message, the Dow bounced almost 400 points off yesterday’s lows.

Even so, that move paled in comparison to the even bigger move she triggered in oil prices.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Gold Price Forecast Trading Idea / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

Yesterday’s FOMC was bullish for most assets, as the FED indicated it was not ready to beginning raising rates. The FED’s ZIRP policy, designed primarily to encourage lending and speculative asset purchases, is clearly here to stay for a while longer. But for gold, this policy has done little for it over the past 3 years, as speculative money is much more concerned with chasing equity and bond markets higher.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

How Many Shale Oil Plays Make Money At $37 Per Barrel? / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: James_Quinn

I’m tossing you a softball. Now think carefully. The choices are:

A. Zero

B. Zero

C. Zero

D. Zero

Thursday, March 19, 2015

An Overview OF Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Srinivasan Rangaraj writes: We all know that Gold is the precious metal in the world. Investors put their large chunk of their capital in gold metal as a part of their investment strategy. However, in India, people are very much fond of this metal. Here, they have very much interest in wearing gold ornaments rather than going for gold investments. That too, they wear these ornaments during functions like marriages, etc. So, most of the times, approximately 20000 tonnes of the gold, are lying idle in the houses of many households or in the bank lockers.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Gold Price Rises 2.1% – Fed Signals Loose Monetary Policies to Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Gold rose over 2% – Fed signals ultra loose monetary policies to continue
- Fed dampens expectation of a rate hike in June
- Yellen no longer “patient” – notes weakness in recent US economic data
- Fed knows that fragile, debt laden U.S. economy cannot handle higher rates
- Despite recent dollar strength, dollar vulnerable in long term
- Sole reserve currency status threatened in currency wars

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Gold and Silver Currency Wars and Credibility Traps / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jesse

The Fed not only blinked today. They were twitching like someone afflicted with Tourette's syndrome.

The reasons are pretty clear.

The Fed had to take out the word patient today, or lose all credibility, and risk scaring the markets back into reality.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Double Bottom in Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Mario_Innecco

With the Fed looking like it is wimping out on raising rates in June 2015 and the dollar index crashing back below 100 it looks like gold has bottomed and formed a double bottom.

Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs now sees the first rate hike in September and last year GS was talking about a March or June hike. The strength we have seen in the dollar these last few months was based on expectations of rate hikes by the Fed so I think the FX/Gold market could get pretty wild as expectations of these rate hikes by the Fed dissipate.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Gold, Debt, Deflation and the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Aden_Forecast

The markets have been very volatile. This has led to many questions and the most frequently asked questions follow...

Q. We're hearing a lot about deflation, but how bad is it?