Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Gold and Silver - That Was The Week That Was / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jesse
"Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate. Consequently, units with cash flow shortfalls will be forced to try to make position by selling out position. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values."
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Exploring The Gold Market: The Fed, The Charts. The COTS and GLD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
As most of you know by now, I am bearish on gold from an intermediate term perspective on account of the fact that I do believe that the Fed is eventually going to have to raise rates and try to somehow normalize monetary policy/interest rates. Perhaps I am wrong about that but I find it hard to believe that we can expect near zero interest rates into perpetuity. My own view is that the Fed can only do much to help the economy with monetary policy. What it cannot do however is to set fiscal policy or to deal with the heavy regulatory burden of an overreaching federal government. That will require a change in the party which controls the White House but that is unfortunately a long way off at this point. I maintain that had we a business friendly administration (think Obamacare and the burden that has produced on business for example, not to mention a runamok EPA), coupled with near zero interest rates and more fiscally sound budgets (controlled spending) that the economy would be in much better shape than it currently is. That being said, we have to work with what we have before us, not what we might wish for. For now, we have a Fed that has managed to inject enough uncertainty in regards to interest rates that it has taken some of the selling pressure off of gold for the time being.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Gold Trading Week Ahead - 23 March 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Harley_Salt
Gold staged a strong rally following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting last week with the market downgrading interest rate expectations and also the outlook for inflation. Gold ended the week up over US$23/oz and erased all of the losses of 2015 so far.The US dollar weakness and dollar profit taking is benefiting gold, in the short term I expect this will continue and be a significant driver for the price of gold. The dollar index lost more than 2.5 percent last week.
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Sunday, March 22, 2015
Is the tide turning for Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: David_Morgan
Chris Marchese writes: Has the tide begun to turn for the precious metals, notably silver and gold? In our view the turn began last year and if pressed to pinpoint one event, it would be following the failure of the Swiss referendum when the SNB de-pegged the franc from the euro. The Swiss National Bank was frustrated with the continued depreciation of the Euro. This had as much to do with sentiment as it did with the SNB clearing seeing the Euro might be going the way of the Rentenmark.
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Sunday, March 22, 2015
Gold And Silver - China's AIIB Spells U.s. Dollar Demise, Not Clear For Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [AIIB]. What is it? Yet another political disaster for the Obama administration as it leaves a wide swath of blunder after blunder in massively failed efforts to keep US allies from aligning with China's newest anti-US, anti- fiat Federal Reserve "dollar, AIIB. It will not just compete with the World Bank, a US- dominated financial entity, the AIIB will logically replace the World Bank in its own Asian sphere of influence.
Obama is pissed, a crass way to express his sentiment but an apt word choice for a crass politician with virtually no international diplomatic skills, and the AIIB amply exemplifies how true this is. The US continues to become more and more isolated through its ongoing war drums beating incessantly as the only viable solution the US has to offer.
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Saturday, March 21, 2015
Cocoa Commodity Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Cocoa
By: Austin_Galt
Cocoa is the basis of chocolate. The word cocoa is derived from the Spanish word cacao as the cacao tree is native to Latin America. It originated in the Amazon and Orinoco basins which are in Colombia and Venezuela. However, it is now West Africa which dominates world production of cocoa with the Ivory Coast being by far the largest producer.
Let's investigate the technicals of the cocoa price taking a top down approach beginning with the yearly chart.
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Saturday, March 21, 2015
Gold Sentiment Not Bearish Enough / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Precious metals are closing the week out with a good rally. The Federal Reserve nonsense proved to be a catalyst as it can be in either direction. Regardless of the Fed, the precious metals sector was oversold and due for a bounce. We wrote about that last week. Maybe this could be the bear market bottom. Maybe not. It concerns us that Gold is rebounding from an area of insignificant long term support amid sentiment that is not at a bearish extreme. Extreme bearish sentiment coupled with very strong support raises the probability of a major rebound or bear market bottom. I don't see that for Gold, yet.
Friday, March 20, 2015
FOMC is boxed in, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday was notable for deferring interest rate rises to some unspecified time in the future. This was realistic, given the continuing strength of the dollar, downward revisions to the inflation outlook, and economic weakness in virtually all industry surveys. The Fed's obvious problem in deferring a rise in interest rates is the continuing improvement in the unemployment statistics. However these are seriously flawed: for example in February housing starts fell sharply due to the bad weather, yet seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for residential construction jobs were said to rise by 17,200.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Silver Price Poised to Surge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Silver is scraping major support again, after a rough couple months where speculators left it for dead. But today’s brutal lows and extreme universal bearishness are the perfect breeding ground for silver’s next big rally. Investors are very underexposed, while speculators have big short positions that will have to be covered. So as gold reverses decisively and paves the way, capital is going to flood back into silver.
Silver’s great allure today when it is down and out is hard for most to understand. That’s because most traders mistakenly make linear assumptions in a nonlinear world. They expect today’s market conditions to persist indefinitely. But that’s not the way markets work, they are forever cyclical. The best times to buy low before later selling high are when assets are universally despised and trading at super-low prices.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jeff_Clark
Have you noticed that some gold investors don’t seem very concerned about the current behavior of gold?
While the price remains weak and range-bound, some gold investors don’t seem worried about it at all.
The natural reaction to an asset you own losing a third of its value, with seemingly little motivation to move higher, is cheerless and maybe even depressing. So why aren’t they?
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Friday, March 20, 2015
Gold Price Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Capital Economics chart-based analysis sees gold ending year higher at $1,400 per ounce
-Sees a remote possibility of gold falling to $850 per ounce
-A “Grexit” may cause gold to surge to $2,000 per ounce
Friday, March 20, 2015
Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
Cheap Paper Money - Precious Metals Technical Outlook / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Submissions
Andy Farida writes: Central bankers are facing the most difficult task – balancing the economy which is on the verge of deflation or pumping it with cheap money to reflate the stitch up economic bubble. Worryingly there is no other option at hand and more negative interest rates in developed economies are looking likely in the coming months (especially in Europe). Meanwhile, the US economy (dubbed the Promised Land) continues to spur on the relentless task of spearheading growth and potentially raise interest rate for the first time. Analysts reckon that the BOE is running second on this issue too.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Silver Tales of Thales / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Physical silver held in personal possession is a cheap option; an option being simply a choice. The best choices have a very low downside —and infinite upside. Options and optionality are not exclusive to financial markets.
Silver, mainly because its price is dominated by commercial investment bank goliaths, has massive asymmetry. It’s super cheap relative to its real supply and demand fundamentals. All it needs is a storm to disrupt that hold. That storm is inevitable.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
GDXJ / Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
This key predictive ratio continues to struggle when it comes to gaining upside traction. It remains below the starting level of the year.
The HUI/Gold ratio looks a bit better but certainly nothing to write home about.
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Friday, March 20, 2015
What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Janet Yellen sure has a way with the markets…
As the Fed Chair delivered her unexpectedly dovish message, the Dow bounced almost 400 points off yesterday’s lows.
Even so, that move paled in comparison to the even bigger move she triggered in oil prices.
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Thursday, March 19, 2015
Gold Price Forecast Trading Idea / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Bob_Loukas
Yesterday’s FOMC was bullish for most assets, as the FED indicated it was not ready to beginning raising rates. The FED’s ZIRP policy, designed primarily to encourage lending and speculative asset purchases, is clearly here to stay for a while longer. But for gold, this policy has done little for it over the past 3 years, as speculative money is much more concerned with chasing equity and bond markets higher.
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Thursday, March 19, 2015
How Many Shale Oil Plays Make Money At $37 Per Barrel? / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: James_Quinn
I’m tossing you a softball. Now think carefully. The choices are:
A. Zero
B. Zero
C. Zero
D. Zero
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Thursday, March 19, 2015
An Overview OF Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Submissions
Srinivasan Rangaraj writes: We all know that Gold is the precious metal in the world. Investors put their large chunk of their capital in gold metal as a part of their investment strategy. However, in India, people are very much fond of this metal. Here, they have very much interest in wearing gold ornaments rather than going for gold investments. That too, they wear these ornaments during functions like marriages, etc. So, most of the times, approximately 20000 tonnes of the gold, are lying idle in the houses of many households or in the bank lockers.
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Thursday, March 19, 2015
Gold Price Rises 2.1% – Fed Signals Loose Monetary Policies to Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
- Gold rose over 2% – Fed signals ultra loose monetary policies to continue
- Fed dampens expectation of a rate hike in June
- Yellen no longer “patient” – notes weakness in recent US economic data
- Fed knows that fragile, debt laden U.S. economy cannot handle higher rates
- Despite recent dollar strength, dollar vulnerable in long term
- Sole reserve currency status threatened in currency wars