Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Why We Need Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
High on High Priced Oil
Royal Dutch Shell's new chairman Chad Hallyday says that falling oil prices are the top of his agenda and like other “historic majors” such as ConocoPhillips and ENI, Shell gets a painful bottom line hit from lower prices. Reported by the 'Financial Times', October 31, Hallyday says that each $10 fall in the barrel price means $3 billion less earnings a year and a prolonged period of Brent prices around $85 a barrel would translate to $8 bn-a-year of reduced profits for Shell. Nevertheless Hallyday is not only a former BofA banking chief, but also co-chaired the UN's high level group on sustainable energy, which in 2011 pledged a doubling of renewable energy in world energy by 2030. The recent doomster grandstanding by UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon to “prevent planetary disaster from global warming” calls for the total elimination of all fossil fuels “before the end of the century”.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Understanding Global Monetary Policy: And How to Profit From It / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Bob_Kirtley
To say that the last month as been turbulent in markets would be a drastic understatement. We saw the biggest intraday range in US bond yields in 16 years, equities nosedive then whipsaw right back to new highs, VIX hit the highest levels since 2011 whilst gold, silver and oil hit multi year lows. With such volatility around the theme of uncertainty is rife across financial markets, therefore it is important to reassess ones views of the market and properly understand the underlying drivers of market action.
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Gold and U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold continued weak in its performance during September. The yellow metal’s price dropped almost 5.5% from $1286.50 to $1216.5 (London PM Fix). In the last Market Overview we came to the conclusion that the real interest rate is one of the main drivers of the gold price. Although the negative relationship between real interest rates and gold prices does not always hold, the recent medium-term declines (including the last month) were probably, to a large extent, caused by the rise in the long-term real interest rates.
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Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Sunny Silver Price Forecast - Low Price Today Means High Price Tomorrow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: John_Rubino
Solar power has been the next big thing in energy for as long as most people have been alive. But it was always too expensive to be anything more than a niche technology, attractive more for its coolness than its efficiency. That has changed, in a big way.
According to a report by Deutsche Bank, generating electricity from sunlight is now as cheap as getting it from coal in most US states when current subsidies are included. Extrapolate the inexorably-falling cost of solar just a few more years, and the subsidies won’t be necessary.
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Monday, November 03, 2014
Gold Price Declines Once Again As Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Gold and mining stocks declined yesterday in a rather profound way. The GDX ETF finally broke below its 2013 lows and the volume that corresponded to this action was high. However, silver almost didn’t react – why didn’t it? Will we see a rally shortly?
In short, not likely. There was a good reason for silver to hold up strongly at this time. However, before we move to this situation, let’s take a look at the “background info” – the changes in the USD Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, November 03, 2014
Gold, Silver Fell 5%, 6% Last Week - Remain Vulnerable / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,170.75, EUR 936.90 and GBP 731.90 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,173.25, EUR 933.45 and GBP 733.47 per ounce.
Gold and silver were both sharply down for the week at 4.78% and 5.99% respectively.
Gold fell $26.30 or 2.2% to $1,172.40 per ounce Friday and silver slid $0.33 or 2% to $16.16 per ounce.
Gold fell nearly 1% to $1,161.75/oz today and dropped to 4 year lows as the U.S. dollar strengthened and technical selling continued as prices had a weekly close below $1,180/oz.
Monday, November 03, 2014
A Silver Primer - Where Are We Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
My wife killed one of our cars recently. It was a good car. Old, recycled, reliable, safe.
We had a small coolant leak and the car had been overheating for some time. (Not all divisions of household labor and responsibilities are beneficial.)But we don’t drive much. When we do, it’s only for short distances. But not long enough to break down completely.
Monday, November 03, 2014
German Precious Metal Dealers Report Huge Run on Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Goldreporter writes: Precious metal dealers in Germany have literally been run down after the latest slump in gold and silver. Wholesalers already expect deferred deliveries.
The latest plunge in gold and silver late last week has led to a sharp increase in demand by German precious metals investors, which also continued on Saturday. There was a particularly strong demand for silver coins. “On Thursday and Friday people had to draw numbers in order for us to control the run”, reports Andreas Heubach, CEO of Heubach Edelmetalle in Nuremberg. “On both days we sold each around 40,000 silver ounces – incredible”, he said. “Demand is back – and hysteria as well”, he evaluated.
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Monday, November 03, 2014
Gold and Silver Price Bear Market- Phase III... The Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
This is part 1I of an essay by Plunger (Burt Coons). He is an extraordinary market historian and an associate with Rambus Chartology.
Precious Metals Bear Market- Phase III
The Strategy (Part III)
We ended our last essay, entitled "Phase III , Apocalypse Now" http://goldtadise.com/?p=342329
with the question has your market guru been advising you to buy all the way down from the highs of 2011? If so, don't you think its time to reexamine your premise. Well, if you have maybe you are ready to adopt a different strategy so as to survive the final phase III of this precious metals bear market. This final part 3 essay lays out a suggested game plan to both survive the bear and to transition to the next bull market in the PMs. I want to remind all readers that I am not anti gold. In fact, I am a long term hard money advocate who in fact is anti fiat money, however I prefer to lose my opinion over losing my money thus I am not attached to dogma and I strive to be objective while analyzing markets rather than apply my own ideology to fit the market. Part one can be read here: http://goldtadise.com/?p=341672
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Monday, November 03, 2014
Gold Price Crash Through Key Support, Crude Oil in Freefall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clive_Maund
Gold finally crashed key support at last year's lows on Friday, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the prospect of an immediate severe decline at least to the strong support in the $1,000 area. Such a decline will have grave consequences for the Precious Metals mining industry, whose costs have risen sharply in recent years, and is expected to lead to a massive wave of company failures, as many who have been "hanging on by their fingernails" finally lose the fight and disappear over the cliff. This will eventually lead to an acute gold supply shortage, which will be exacerbated after the dollar's deflation panic "swan song" rally is done, and the dollar is then pushed off its perch as the global reserve currency by the actions of China and Russia (and others) working in concert to bring it down. This will lead to a massive resurgence in gold and silver and to the stocks of mining companies who weather the imminent Great Cull going ballistic.
Monday, November 03, 2014
Silver Price Breaks Long-term Support Likely to Drop Further / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clive_Maund
Silver finally broke down from its long-term uptrend late last week, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the risk of an immediate severe drop. As with gold, silver looks set to enter a cycle of company failure and mine closure leading to an eventual production shortfall, which, coupled with a falling dollar after its current deflation induced "swan song" rally has played out, leads in turn to sharply rising prices and a spectacular rally in the stocks of companies who have managed to survive the imminent Great Cull.
Sunday, November 02, 2014
Silver Eagle Sales Climb 87% Higher in October / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jason_Hamlin
Silver Eagle sales for the month of October were the highest of the year at 5,790,000. This is up 40% versus September and a whopping 87.5% versus October of last year. With 38 million Silver Eagles sold thus far in 2014, the 2013 record of 42.7 million coins may very well be broken.
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Sunday, November 02, 2014
The Reinvention of Alan Greenspan / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Former chairman calls Fed balance sheet a tinder box, endorses private gold ownership
During the time Alan Greenspan and representative Ron Paul had their famous series of exchanges (some might have labeled them confrontations) during Congressional hearings from 1997 to 2005, the congressman made what turns out to have been a prescient observation. "My questions," he said, "are always on the same subject. If I don't bring up the issue of hard money versus fiat money, Greenspan himself does." I say "prescient observation" because here we are a decade or more later and the "new" post-Fed Greenspan sounds very much like the "old" pre-Fed Greenspan-––the one who consistently advocated gold before he became Fed chairman.
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Sunday, November 02, 2014
As Oil Price Falls, These Kinds of Drillers Become Irresistible / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Thanks to the drop in prices, some TV pundits are now talking about the end of the “new” oil age.
Of course, most of these misfits couldn’t find an oil slick if they slipped on it. But that’s not stopping them, not one bit.
Now admittedly, it’s true. With oil now trading in a band between $80 and $88 a barrel, there’s a “new normal” for crude. (And as I’ll explain later, it just won’t last).
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Saturday, November 01, 2014
Gold And Silver – Elite Supernova Death Dance In PMs? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
On several occasions, over as many months, comments have been made here to the effect
that reading developing market activity is the best source for knowing what to expect,
moving forward. Most people have a need to rationalize the markets by coordinating
known events with the current price. Last year, it was how many record coin sales around
the world would impact the market, then the number of tonnes China and Russia were
importing. Lately, the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange where true price discovery
could be expected, the ongoing disappearance of reserves held by COMEX and LBMA, etc,
etc, etc., none of which had the market impact for which so many had hoped.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Gold and Silver - Good Morning Fiat Nam / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
It is a mistake to underestimate the depths of self-serving policy error to which Wall Street and the ruling elite will sink in order to kick the can down the road and maintain their positions of privilege. Every time I think they can go no further, I am surprised. Shame on me.
The Fed has never seen a bubble it didn't like. And if the trickle down isn't working, keep doing the same thing, but even more. Tempting fate doesn't begin to cover it.
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Friday, October 31, 2014
Pretium - Canadian Golden Elephant / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Elephants are the world’s largest land animals. And though there aren’t many, they can still be found scattered across the planet. In the mining industry, super-large-sized deposits are often referred to as elephants. Like the animal, these deposits aren’t all that common. But also like the animal, they can still be found.
Elephant country is somewhere miners tend to gravitate towards in their hunt for meaningful discoveries, as elephants can usually be found in herds. And one of the world’s most prolific gold herds is found in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle.
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Friday, October 31, 2014
Gold Prices in The Post-QE World / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clif_Droke
Lacking a distinctive catalyst, gold prices have languished in recent weeks after a failed turnaround attempt earlier this month. Gold's primary form of price propulsion is fear and uncertainty; as long as investors are worried what the future might hold, gold is treated as a financial safe haven and its price tends to appreciate due to increased demand. When investors aren't worried, however, gold is typically ignored and risk assets (viz. equities) become the preferred choice.
Friday, October 31, 2014
FOMC Hits Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Trading in precious metals was quiet until Wednesday morning, when prices began to soften. When the FOMC meeting released its policy statement at 2.00pm EST, gold and silver responded by falling heavily, with gold breaching the $1200 level yesterday (Thursday) and silver crashing through $17 to a low of $16.33.
This morning (Friday) gold and silver fell further in overnight ahead of the London opening, with gold trading down to $1173 and silver at $16.00. It is clear that the bears, including the bullion banks with short books, mounted an attack on the $1180 level, where there were stops to take out.
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Friday, October 31, 2014
More Downside Ahead for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we argued that the underperformance of the gold miners during Gold's rebound was a bad sign. Since then the miners have plunged to new lows while Gold appears to be at the doorstep of a major breakdown below $1180. It shouldn't be a surprise as it would simply be following the miners and Silver. The current bear market is getting very long in the tooth but it is not yet over. We see more losses ahead before a potential lifetime buying opportunity.