Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Gold and Silver Timing is Everything / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Peter_Degraaf
Timing is everything in investments, and after watching the precious metals markets for the past three months, since the publishing of his last article at the June lows, Peter draws the conclusion that gold bullion and gold mining stocks have finally bottomed and are ready to resume the bullish trend than began twelve years ago.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Copper, Nickel and Zinc Won't Be Cheap for Long / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Metals_Report
The all-powerful U.S. dollar is currently hammering base metals and base metal equities. Haywood Securities Mining Analyst Stefan Ioannou says that increasing demand and near-term supply shortages make base metals a bargain that won't last. In this interview with The Mining Report, Ioannou argues that juniors with good deposits and low costs are in a unique position to benefit, and lists several companies that look to do just that.
The Mining Report: What effect is the strong U.S. dollar having on base metal prices and base metal equities?
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Gold and Real Interest Rate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Arkadiusz Sieron writes: Teaser: Does gold respond to the inflation or rather to the real interest rate? Paul Krugman said once that the reason behind the high real price of gold between 2001 and 2011 was low real interest rates, not the expected inflation. Is he right and are real interest rates really the main driver of the yellow metal price? How do they affect the gold market?
During the last boom, the gold price was stubbornly rising, but inflation was low. Not surprisingly the relationship between real interest rates (nominal interest rates less inflation) and gold increasingly attracted more and more interest. If gold responds mainly to the real interest rate, it makes its inflation hedge character questionable. This was the opinion of, for example, Paul Krugman, a Nobel Laureate in economics. Krugman claimed that the reason behind the high real price of gold until 2011 was low real interest rates, not the expected inflation.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
How Will We Know That the Gold & Silver Price Bottom Is In? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions (half) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Yesterday, gold closed higher than it did in the previous several weeks, which seems like a very bullish development for the entire precious metals market until one realizes that miners are still close to their most recent lows.
In short, in our opinion, the answer to the title question is that miners could rally some more in the short term, but we don’t expect the rally to be significant. We expect to see significant rallies after the final bottom is reached (in a few weeks – months), but not before that – at least not based on the information that we have available today. Furthermore, it seems that the next local top will be reached shortly, but that it’s not in just yet.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Is Gold as Dead as Florida Hurricanes? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Don_Miller
It’s been over 3,280 days since a hurricane hit Florida. As hurricane season comes to a close next month, only Mother Nature knows how long the streak will last.
Like many Floridians, my wife and I stayed home and rode out a hurricane—once! We’d built a home on Perdido Key, a barrier island west of Pensacola. It was engineered to withstand 150-plus mph winds, and it was a beautiful home with a master bedroom spanning the entire third floor, looking out across the Gulf of Mexico.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The first poll of how the Swiss people will vote in the “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative on November 30th shows that the Swiss are leaning towards voting for the pro-gold initiative.
Monday, October 20, 2014
Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: The_Gold_Report
Could an infectious disease kill the monster that has been choking gold and silver prices for more than a year? On the heels of a lively Sprott Precious Metals Roundtable discussion, The Gold Report caught up with investor Eric Sprott to ask how a tragedy in Africa could impact the price of precious metals and mining stocks. We also spoke to his Executive Vice President of Corporate Development John Ciampaglia about a new way to gain exposure to gold.
Monday, October 20, 2014
Gold vs Euro Risk Due To Possible Return of Italian Lira - Drachmas, Escudos, Pesetas and Punts? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The European status quo and EU elites are becoming increasingly concerned by popular calls in Italy for Italy to leave the European Monetary Union and the euro "as soon as possible" and return to the lira.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Gold Stocks Analysis – FNV, CG, NCM, SBM / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Austin_Galt
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP (FNV)
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is the Big Daddy of the Canadian gold market. It is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) with a market capitalisation of around CAD$7.8b. Its main interests are its North American gold assets but it is a truly global company with investments in several other countries including Mexico and Australia. Price last traded at $60.25. To learn more about the company, please visit its website at www.franco-nevada.com
Let’s take a top down approach to the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.
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Sunday, October 19, 2014
How LNG Exports Almost Bankrupted Australia, Is the U.S. Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Money_Morning
The world’s leading liquefied national gas (LNG) exporter is the tiny Arab kingdom of Qatar, whose 77 million tons per year (mtpy) account for 30% of global LNG exports.
When the U.S. begins exporting massive quantities of LNG in 2015, it will immediately be catapulted into a position as one of the world’s largest exporters as well.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Gold And Silver - Financial World: House Of Cards Built On Sand / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Take heart PM community, your turn is coming. What is happening in the stock market is a harbinger of what is sure to come for gold and silver, at some point in the future. When? Ah, that elusive question the answer to which so many want to know, the same answer to which so many so-called prognosticators have serially gotten wrong over the past few years. The best answer is patience.
It is highly unlikely that a single bank, at least in the Western fiat central banking system, is solvent. All, repeat, all banks are insolvent, propped up by the Rothschild system that few can successfully challenge. All banks exist by accounting deceit and every kind of threat, indirect or otherwise, that it is not wise to challenge the international banking cartel [on the verge of collapse]. Russia and China are rising to the occasion rather timely.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Leading Indicators for Gold Price Turnaround / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold is currently getting a reprieve as it trades close to $1240 which is above important weekly support at $1200. It's safe for the time being but we believe that Gold will ultimately break back below $1200 and below $1100 before the end of the already long in the tooth bear market. Because Gold is somewhat of an anti-asset, it's important to chart its course against other asset classes. Gold performs best when its strong against all other classes. Moreover, prior to recent important bottoms Gold bottomed first against other classes before bottoming in nominal terms. It appears that could happen again.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Gold and Silver Extreme Shorting Peaks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
The world's financial markets are changing dramatically with the Federal Reserve on the verge of ending its third quantitative-easing campaign. The Fed's massive deluge of inflation drastically distorted markets, which are finally starting to normalize. The precious metals were crushed by the Fed's artificial levitation of the stock markets, leading to extreme futures shorting. But that looks to have peaked, a very bullish omen.
What a difference a few weeks makes! Back in mid-September, the US stock markets were drenched in euphoria and hitting nominal record highs. Nearly everyone was totally convinced equities would keep on climbing forever. You couldn't turn on CNBC or open a financial newspaper without seeing endless predictions for a big end-of-year rally. And gold and silver were despised, believed to be doomed to spiral lower.
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Friday, October 17, 2014
“Save Our Swiss Gold ” - Game Changer For Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
We believe that the “Save Our Swiss Gold” campaign has the potential to be a game changer in the gold market - both in terms of the ramifications for the current global monetary system and in terms of higher gold prices.
There has been a lack of coverage of this important story and there is therefore a lack of awareness about the possible implications for the gold market. Thus, in the weeks prior to the referendum on November 30th, we are going to analyse the referendum, the important context to the referendum and the ramifications of a yes or a no vote.
Mark O’Byrne, Head of Research GoldCore
Friday, October 17, 2014
When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Since mid 2010 the oil industry was getting used to Brent averaging around $110. From then to mid 2014 share prices of Halliburton (HAL) Schlumberger (SLB), Hercules (HERO), Transocean (RIG) etc, went up by average 250%. By way of a benchmark for the collective enthusiasm in the idea of the irreversibility of Peak Oil, MODU (jack-up drilling rigs) utilization and day rates climbed into the champagne-all-round arena. According to IHS, a consultancy, there are 118 new ones being built so as to complement the current worldwide fleet of 550. About 40% of those are in China thanks in part to the 5% you used to be able to put down grace of the beneficence of the Bank of Chairman Mao...which incidentally has the smell of the dry bulk carrier enthusiasm seven years ago, also largely financed by the Bank of Chairman Mao.
Friday, October 17, 2014
Gold Benefits from Market Uncertainty / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The outlook for gold is now more positive than it has been for some time. After a prolonged period of low volatility as funds invested in ever-greater risk, markets have snapped and volatility has jumped. In short, we are swinging very suddenly from complacency to reality.
Financial markets hit a serious air-pocket this week, with a collapse in US Treasury bond yields in a dash-for-cash, illustrated in the chart below.
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Friday, October 17, 2014
Three Ways to Play Uranium: Top Stock Picks / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Energy_Report
Investors in the uranium space are like Goldilocks: They have three major ways to play, says David A. Talbot, senior mining analyst at Dundee Capital Markets. The Athabasca Basin entices with high rewards for high risks. U.S.-based in-situ recovery offers stable cash flow from stable operations. And companies challenged by current market prices that are positioning themselves smartly for an upswing also provide opportunity. In this interview with The Energy Report, Talbot explains the turbulent currents roiling the uranium space, and names eight players he thinks are positioned just right.
The Energy Report: David, the uranium spot price has recovered to a 52-week high of about $35 per pound ($35/lb) after nearly three months in the doldrums. What drove the rise?
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Thursday, October 16, 2014
Gold Prices Since 9-11 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
The world as we knew it changed after the dot-com crash of 2000 and especially after 9-11.
- National debt zoomed much higher
- Stock markets crashed
- The Fed introduced more “stimulus” and helped create a housing bubble
- Government became larger and more intrusive
- Gold, silver, crude, and other commodities rallied
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Flight To Safety - Gold Rises As Stocks, European Bonds Sink / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,241.00, EUR 969.38 and GBP 775.87 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,223.50, EUR 967.58 and GBP 768.63 per ounce.
Gold climbed $4.40 or 0.36% to $1,237.80 per ounce and silver slipped $0.03 or 0.17% to $17.43 per ounce yesterday. Gold s now nearly 5% above its recent lows and is again acting as a hedging instrument in investment portfolios after sharp falls in stock and many bond markets.
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Thursday, October 16, 2014
Crude Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.