Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, October 31, 2014

China's Gold Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

China first delegated the management of gold policy to the Peoples Bank by regulations in 1983. This development was central to China's emergence as a free-market economy following the post-Mao reforms in 1979/82. At that time the west was doing its best to suppress gold to enhance confidence in paper currencies, releasing large quantities of bullion for others to buy. This is why the timing is important: it was an opportunity for China, a one-billion population country in the throes of rapid economic modernisation, to diversify growing trade surpluses from the dollar.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Gold, Silver and Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

"The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create.

What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world’s surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world."

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Gold Price Declines Once Again As Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold and mining stocks declined yesterday in a rather profound way. The GDX ETF finally broke below its 2013 lows and the volume that corresponded to this action was high. However, silver almost didn't react - why didn't it? Will we see a rally shortly?

In short, not likely. There was a good reason for silver to hold up strongly at this time. However, before we move to this situation, let's take a look at the "background info" - the changes in the USD Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Fed Ends QE? Greenspan Says Gold “Measurably” “Higher” In 5 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

As expected, the Fed announced yesterday it would end its six year money printing and bond buying programme.

Given the fragile nature of the U.S. economy, Eurozone economy and indeed the global economy, Fed critics continue to believe that this may be a short term hiatus prior to a resumption of QE, if asset prices start to fall or economic growth falters.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted yesterday to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), that QE and the Fed’s bond buying program, which aimed to lower unemployment and spur stronger economic growth, fell short of its goals.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Understanding Gold's Massive Impact on Fed Maneuvering / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Just about everyone knows Alan Greenspan. As central bankers go, he may just be the most famous ever. Even today, 1 in 6 Americans still think he's the current chair of the Federal Reserve.

As Fed chief from 1987 until 2006, Greenspan oversaw the latter part of the greatest stock bull in history.

For that, some called him "The Maestro."

Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped From America's Grasp / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: John_Mauldin

The story of energy is the story of human expansion. From the days when we roamed the African savanna, we tamed first fire and then other forms of energy, using them as tools to control our environment and improve our lives. The control of energy has always been at the heart of the human story.

This week our Outside the Box essay is from my friend Marin Katusa, who has written a fascinating book about a part of that story, a subplot of intrigue and conspiracy. Under Putin, Russia has aspired to dominate the energy markets. Called The Colder War, Marin’s book is a well-written tale of the rise of Putin and his desire to change the way the world’s energy markets are controlled.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold and Silver Junior Miners Buying Opportunity Comes Once Every Six Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Risk taking is a natural part of life, especially in the capitalist system where the greater the risk, the increased potential reward. The TSX Venture Index which is made of the Canadian start ups in junior mining and high tech is hitting lows not seen since 2002 and the 2008 Credit Crisis. Investors are now risk adverse, but as the charts shows below that could change.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold's Obituary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: David_Petch

This is probably not the type of article anyone who owns precious metal stocks would like to read, but here it is. The analysis presented today illustrates short-term and mid-term outlooks up front, with the Elliott Wave count indicating the longer-term trend expected over the next 5-7 years. I am not really going to provide much information on investment strategies around this analysis, but if one connects the dots, it should reveal a crystal clear picture.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Greenspan: Gold Price Will Rise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Axel_Merk

Any doubts about why I own gold as an investment were dispelled last Saturday by the maestro himself: former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. It's not because Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise - I don't need his investment advice; it's that he shed light on how the Fed works in ways no other former Fed Chair has ever dared to articulate. All investors should pay attention to this. Let me explain.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Government Gold-Plating / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) released his annual Wastebook this past week. It contains a laundry list of doozies. The U.S. government’s gold-plating operations included $190,000 to study compost digested by worms, $297 million for the purchase of an unused mega blimp, and $1 million on a Virginia bus stop where only 15 people can huddle under a half-baked roof. These questionable (read: absurd) expenditures only represent the tip of the iceberg.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Gold vs Paper - A Tale of Two Cities / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

This is a work of fiction with a few similarities to the reality we all know and trust, or … the reality that we think we know.

City A in a Paper World:

A financial genius had a plan!  He and his offspring implemented the plan over several hundred years.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Omniscient Federal Reserve Captures The Capital Market, For Now. Gold Beckons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

A cursory glance at the various financial news media this morning shows nothing particularly unusual for these unusual times. The ECB have paraded a list for stress tested banks and the market shrugged. However, there is a disturbing thread running through most of the stories to which we have become immune but which would have been considered highly unusual at almost any time in the twentieth century. And that thread is the influence of the Federal Reserve in practically every key market in the world. 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The End of QE and the Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
The programme known as Quantitative Easing is due to be halted at the end of October, coinciding with the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee which is scheduled for 28/29 October 2014.  Monetary policy plays a big role in gold’s fortunes and so the strategies put in place by the central banks around the world need to be watched very carefully.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Oliver Gross Says Peak Gold Is Here to Stay / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

The wave of zero-interest liquidity washing over the financial world could result in a short-term gold bottom of $1,000 per ounce, reports Oliver Gross of Der Rohstoff-Anleger (The Resource Investor). The good news is that Peak Gold is here to stay, which means that midtier producers will soon be desperate to buy low-cost, high-quality deposits. In this interview with The Gold Report, Gross argues that this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for contrarian investors, and suggests a half-dozen best bets to be taken out.

The Gold Report: Earlier this month, the broader equities markets suffered huge losses as gold made significant gains. Then, after the broader markets recovered, gold fell. Is there now an inverse relationship between the health of the broader markets and the price of gold?

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Does Gold Price Always Respond to Real Interest Rates? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Generally, the real interest rates are negatively correlated with the gold price, i.e. the rising interest rates adversely impact the yellow metal. Based on this adverse relationship between real interest rates and price of gold, Elfenbein built a model for the price of gold. According to it, whenever the dollar's real short-term interest rate is below 2%, gold rallies, and whenever the real short-term rate is above 2%, the price of gold falls. Another rule of thumb is that gold moves eight times stronger than the difference between real interest rates and 2%. If the model is correct, the Fed's future interest rates hike may be detrimental for the price of gold. However, there are many objections to the use of such a simple model, and generally to the adverse relationship between gold and real interest rates.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions.

On Friday, crude oil lost 0.68% as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh. Additionally, soft U.S. housing data pushed the commodity below $82 per barrel. Will we see another test of the strength of the psychologically important level of $80?

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Mining CEO Calls on Fellow Miners to Halt Physical Silver Sales to End the Paper Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jason_Hamlin

I have always been in favor of mining companies holding back the sale of a portion of their metals when prices dip. Furthermore, they should hold reserves beyond the amount needed to run daily operations in gold and silver, not fiat cash. It can always be converted if and when necessary. Lastly, offer an option to pay dividends in physical metal, cutting out the middlemen.

Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic Silver was one of the first mining CEOs to do this and I applaud his actions. In the latest quarter, First Majestic held back 35% of their production, rather than selling it at deeply discounted paper prices.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Gold And Silver Price - Respect The Trend But Prepare For A Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

When events "happen," they happen in a directed way by the elite's mainstream media outlets. News is presented in a way that is designed to appeal to mass emotions so as to discount reasoned thinking. You get government pimps, be they congressmen, heads of agencies, even presidents who add their fiat 2 cents in order to give some weight to an otherwise weightless argument. While the "news event" is largely untrue, there is a sufficient amount of plausibility added to disguise the misleading [never verified] facts. In other words, psychological manipulation is the main menu of options for the elites to keep the masses "informed," while still very much uninformed.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Gold Price Rebounds but Gold Miners Struggle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Several weeks ago the entire precious metals space was extremely oversold and due for at the least, a reflex rally. Gold was down in nine of twelve weeks with Silver down in eleven of those twelve weeks. The miners experienced a nasty September and were down five consecutive weeks. With Gold rallying from $1185 to $1255, we would expect Silver and the mining stocks to rebound strongly in percentage terms. However, those markets have lagged Gold badly. The mining stocks are essentially back to their lows and Silver hasn’t fared much better. The recent stark underperformance of Silver and the mining stocks especially is a warning sign of further downside.