Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Understanding Gold's Massive Impact on Fed Maneuvering / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Just about everyone knows Alan Greenspan. As central bankers go, he may just be the most famous ever. Even today, 1 in 6 Americans still think he's the current chair of the Federal Reserve.

As Fed chief from 1987 until 2006, Greenspan oversaw the latter part of the greatest stock bull in history.

For that, some called him "The Maestro."

Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped From America's Grasp / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: John_Mauldin

The story of energy is the story of human expansion. From the days when we roamed the African savanna, we tamed first fire and then other forms of energy, using them as tools to control our environment and improve our lives. The control of energy has always been at the heart of the human story.

This week our Outside the Box essay is from my friend Marin Katusa, who has written a fascinating book about a part of that story, a subplot of intrigue and conspiracy. Under Putin, Russia has aspired to dominate the energy markets. Called The Colder War, Marin’s book is a well-written tale of the rise of Putin and his desire to change the way the world’s energy markets are controlled.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold and Silver Junior Miners Buying Opportunity Comes Once Every Six Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Risk taking is a natural part of life, especially in the capitalist system where the greater the risk, the increased potential reward. The TSX Venture Index which is made of the Canadian start ups in junior mining and high tech is hitting lows not seen since 2002 and the 2008 Credit Crisis. Investors are now risk adverse, but as the charts shows below that could change.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold's Obituary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: David_Petch

This is probably not the type of article anyone who owns precious metal stocks would like to read, but here it is. The analysis presented today illustrates short-term and mid-term outlooks up front, with the Elliott Wave count indicating the longer-term trend expected over the next 5-7 years. I am not really going to provide much information on investment strategies around this analysis, but if one connects the dots, it should reveal a crystal clear picture.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Greenspan: Gold Price Will Rise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Axel_Merk

Any doubts about why I own gold as an investment were dispelled last Saturday by the maestro himself: former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. It's not because Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise - I don't need his investment advice; it's that he shed light on how the Fed works in ways no other former Fed Chair has ever dared to articulate. All investors should pay attention to this. Let me explain.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Government Gold-Plating / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) released his annual Wastebook this past week. It contains a laundry list of doozies. The U.S. government’s gold-plating operations included $190,000 to study compost digested by worms, $297 million for the purchase of an unused mega blimp, and $1 million on a Virginia bus stop where only 15 people can huddle under a half-baked roof. These questionable (read: absurd) expenditures only represent the tip of the iceberg.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Gold vs Paper - A Tale of Two Cities / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

This is a work of fiction with a few similarities to the reality we all know and trust, or … the reality that we think we know.

City A in a Paper World:

A financial genius had a plan!  He and his offspring implemented the plan over several hundred years.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Omniscient Federal Reserve Captures The Capital Market, For Now. Gold Beckons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

A cursory glance at the various financial news media this morning shows nothing particularly unusual for these unusual times. The ECB have paraded a list for stress tested banks and the market shrugged. However, there is a disturbing thread running through most of the stories to which we have become immune but which would have been considered highly unusual at almost any time in the twentieth century. And that thread is the influence of the Federal Reserve in practically every key market in the world. 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The End of QE and the Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
The programme known as Quantitative Easing is due to be halted at the end of October, coinciding with the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee which is scheduled for 28/29 October 2014.  Monetary policy plays a big role in gold’s fortunes and so the strategies put in place by the central banks around the world need to be watched very carefully.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Oliver Gross Says Peak Gold Is Here to Stay / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

The wave of zero-interest liquidity washing over the financial world could result in a short-term gold bottom of $1,000 per ounce, reports Oliver Gross of Der Rohstoff-Anleger (The Resource Investor). The good news is that Peak Gold is here to stay, which means that midtier producers will soon be desperate to buy low-cost, high-quality deposits. In this interview with The Gold Report, Gross argues that this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for contrarian investors, and suggests a half-dozen best bets to be taken out.

The Gold Report: Earlier this month, the broader equities markets suffered huge losses as gold made significant gains. Then, after the broader markets recovered, gold fell. Is there now an inverse relationship between the health of the broader markets and the price of gold?

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Does Gold Price Always Respond to Real Interest Rates? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Generally, the real interest rates are negatively correlated with the gold price, i.e. the rising interest rates adversely impact the yellow metal. Based on this adverse relationship between real interest rates and price of gold, Elfenbein built a model for the price of gold. According to it, whenever the dollar's real short-term interest rate is below 2%, gold rallies, and whenever the real short-term rate is above 2%, the price of gold falls. Another rule of thumb is that gold moves eight times stronger than the difference between real interest rates and 2%. If the model is correct, the Fed's future interest rates hike may be detrimental for the price of gold. However, there are many objections to the use of such a simple model, and generally to the adverse relationship between gold and real interest rates.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions.

On Friday, crude oil lost 0.68% as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh. Additionally, soft U.S. housing data pushed the commodity below $82 per barrel. Will we see another test of the strength of the psychologically important level of $80?

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Mining CEO Calls on Fellow Miners to Halt Physical Silver Sales to End the Paper Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jason_Hamlin

I have always been in favor of mining companies holding back the sale of a portion of their metals when prices dip. Furthermore, they should hold reserves beyond the amount needed to run daily operations in gold and silver, not fiat cash. It can always be converted if and when necessary. Lastly, offer an option to pay dividends in physical metal, cutting out the middlemen.

Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic Silver was one of the first mining CEOs to do this and I applaud his actions. In the latest quarter, First Majestic held back 35% of their production, rather than selling it at deeply discounted paper prices.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Gold And Silver Price - Respect The Trend But Prepare For A Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

When events "happen," they happen in a directed way by the elite's mainstream media outlets. News is presented in a way that is designed to appeal to mass emotions so as to discount reasoned thinking. You get government pimps, be they congressmen, heads of agencies, even presidents who add their fiat 2 cents in order to give some weight to an otherwise weightless argument. While the "news event" is largely untrue, there is a sufficient amount of plausibility added to disguise the misleading [never verified] facts. In other words, psychological manipulation is the main menu of options for the elites to keep the masses "informed," while still very much uninformed.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Gold Price Rebounds but Gold Miners Struggle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Several weeks ago the entire precious metals space was extremely oversold and due for at the least, a reflex rally. Gold was down in nine of twelve weeks with Silver down in eleven of those twelve weeks. The miners experienced a nasty September and were down five consecutive weeks. With Gold rallying from $1185 to $1255, we would expect Silver and the mining stocks to rebound strongly in percentage terms. However, those markets have lagged Gold badly. The mining stocks are essentially back to their lows and Silver hasn’t fared much better. The recent stark underperformance of Silver and the mining stocks especially is a warning sign of further downside.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Bullish Silver Stealth Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

Battered silver remains deeply out of favor, recently plumbing miserable new lows after drifting sideways for most of 2014.  This metal’s relentless and oppressive weakness continues to break the wills of long-suffering contrarians.  But professional investors are taking advantage of the epically-bearish psychology plaguing silver.  They’ve been steadily accumulating positions all year long in massive stealth buying.

Silver certainly wasn’t always a loathed market pariah.  Back in early 2011, silver blasted up above $48 on widespread enthusiasm from investors and speculators.  It was one of the 2000s’ greatest bull markets, up an astounding 1105% during a 9.4-year span where the benchmark S&P 500 limped to a 20% gain.  The brave contrarians fighting the herd to buy silver low in the early 2000s greatly multiplied their wealth.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Blood in the Streets to Create the Gold Stocks Investor Opportunity of the Decade / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Casey_Research

By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst

Gold stocks staged spring and summer rallies this year, but haven’t able to sustain the momentum. Many have sold off sharply in recent weeks, along with gold. That makes this a good time to examine the book value of gold equities; are they objectively cheap now, or not?

Friday, October 24, 2014

Gold and Silver Subdued as Panic Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

For gold and silver it has been a week of two halves: first prices rallied to a peak on Tuesday, then declined to show net losses for the week on Wednesday for silver and Thursday for gold. Broadly these precious metals reflected first weakness then strength in the US dollar. And equities reversed the nervousness of the previous week after a FOMC member suggested QE would be extended, with the S&P 500 closing up 7% on Thursday from its October 15 low.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Swiss ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ Gold Initiative Campaigns Compete at Launches in Bern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

by Ronan Manly, GoldCore Consultant
Contents
- Introduction
- ‘Yes’ Campaign Launch
- Paper Decays, Gold Holds Its Value
- ‘No’ Campaign Launch - Alphabet Soup
- Unsaleable Gold Like an Unusable Fire Extinguisher?
- Swiss Electorate 5.2 Million
- Double Majority Including Cantons
- Referendas by the Dozen
- Sometimes There are Shock Results