Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Powerful Reversal and Shakeout in the Junior Gold Mining Stocks at May Lows Around $33 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Summary
- Three years ago in early 2011, I cautioned my readers to be careful to chase gold and silver higher as it was moving parabolic. Now it is oversold and ignored.
- Be careful now of parabolic rises in the S&P500 (SPY), Long term US Treasuries (TLT) and US dollar (UUP). Investors are scared and looking for liquidity.
- Silver (SLV) is trading below $17, Gold (GLD) is testing major support at $1200. The GDXJ has been outperforming and has not violated 2013 lows.
- If $1180 does not hold, gold (GLD) may test lower prices near $1050 as that is the approximate 50% retracement of the 2001-2011 bull market.
- Some smart traders are expecting a triple bottom at $1180 on gold with a bounce off current oversold levels with a small pullback in December for tax loss selling.
- Junior Gold Mining ETF (GDXJ) Makes Bullish Reversal at May Lows around $33.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Gold and Silver Price To Rally Or Not To Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Austin_Galt
Both gold and silver rallied nicely off their lows the past week. So, is this the start of something bigger or just another blip in a doom and gloomy bear market? Let's have a look at the charts to find out. We'll begin with gold.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Why Overpriced Crude Oil Failed / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Forget the Secret Deals
US-Saudi petrodollar recycling or the "Secret Deal" between the USA and Saudi Arabia dating from the early 1970s and heavily associated with Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, the US Treasury Dept and US Federal Reserve was anything but a secret deal, and public domain information on this system is easily available. Ultra basically, petrodollar recycling worked best with high oil prices. The long slump of oil prices through 1986-2002, was basically engineered, at its beginnings, by Saudi Arabia with full US support to deny revenues to Khomenei's Iran in its 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, seen by the Sunni-dominated Gulf States as holding back the Islamic revolutionary Shia of Iran. Saudi Arabia certainly did not profit from low oil prices and after the period of 1974-86, it consistently reduced its deposits of "windfall gain" petrodollars in the US Fed Reserve system.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Gold And Silver Still No End In Sight / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Miscellaneous, with a central not-so-apparent binder. Do they relate to gold and silver?
In a way, yes.
At the end of September, Yahoo ran a picture of Putin along side of Stalin. No too much in the way of suggestive association at play here by the media intent on pleasing the elites and federal government. The caption was what the two have in common, both from Russia certainly being one. What we know for sure is that neither ever won a Nobel Peace Prize, and neither has been responsible for inciting wars all across the globe and bombing other countries into submission, so Obomba is one-up on them in that regard, but his photo did not appear in the line up.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Gold and Silver Getting a Temporary Reprieve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold closed last week below $1200 for the first time but has since rebounded from support at $1180. Silver has also rebounded but only after declining in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Precious Metals endured a very rough September and became very oversold. With Gold near its daily low and the gold miners (HUI, GDX) near their December lows, a rebound was probable. Precious metals bulls need to stay patient and disciplined as we believe this is an oversold bounce in a sharp downtrend until proven otherwise.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Gold, Stocks Market Turbulence / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
This week has seen highly volatile equities (mostly down), bond yields sharply lower, the oil price hard down, and gold side-lined but recovering after a miserable month or two. On the news front, the S&P rating agency reminded us that Greece is likely to default, Germany released some horrible industrial production numbers, and the Federal Open Market Committee unexpectedly released dovish minutes. So what’s it all about?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2014
Crude Oil Price War - A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed At America / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: In 280-279 B.C., the Epirian King Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in two consecutive battles. But he suffered such a large number of casualties that his army could no longer carry on the fight.
Ever since then, the term “Pyrrhic victory” has become synonymous with winning at too high a cost.
These days some are beginning to wonder if the Saudis are marching down the same road.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
The Fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement - Started 27-9-2014 - What Gives? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
On 19th May 2014, the European Central Bank and 20 other European central banks announced the signing of the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement. This agreement, which applies as of 27 September 2014, will last for five years and the signatories have stated that they currently do not have any plans to sell significant amounts of gold.
Collectively, at the end of 2013, central banks held around 30,500 tonnes of gold, which is approximately one-fifth of all the gold ever mined. Moreover, these holdings are highly concentrated in the advanced economies of Western Europe and North America, a statement that their gold reserves remained an important reserve asset, a statement made in each of the four agreements since then.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Casey_Research
Years of a severe downturn in the gold market have left very few bulls to speak out in favor of the yellow metal. Here are some positive opinions on the future of the precious metal, from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit.
David Tice, founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, believes we are heading for a “global currency reset” that will reduce the role of the dollar in global trade. Central banks, he says, don’t possess all the gold they claim to, and the unwinding of the paper gold market probably isn’t far down the road—it could even ignite the next major crisis.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
In part I, Phase III-Dead Ahead, we established the macro case for the final phase of the gold stock bear market. As the bear market progresses the economies key constraint remains the level of debt, specifically the size and composition of the national balance sheet which has baked in the cake a deflationary outcome. It is this wave of deflation that will drive the final phase of this bear market to unimagined lows. The good news, however is when it's finally over the precious metals will transition into the next bull market. We will examine this process and the sign posts along the way as we complete phase III of the bear market and transition into the beginning of the next bull market in the precious metals.
Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Gold; a Simpleton’s View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Gary_Tanashian
First off, if you have an interest in the price of gold and have not already done so, I highly recommend you check out Steve Hochberg’s 2-part Elliott Wave video presentation on gold (disclosure: free sign up to Club EWI brings a small commission to yours truly 
). With all his zigs, zags, waves and patterns he ends up at the same place I do with my simple version. I may use less cluttered methods, but I find this stuff very interesting.
With markets at a key juncture, the US dollar over bought (but bullish), the precious metals, commodities and increasingly, global markets over sold but bearish and US stocks acting as if October 2014 could at least recall memories of October 2008, I want to try to weave all this together around the simplistic monthly chart of gold, which is the asset that would provide liquidity for asset market refugees if the macro really were to get very negative.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Ebola and Global Recession Risks Send Stocks Sliding / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Hardly a day goes by without a headline on the spread of the deadly Ebola virus in West Africa and now in Spain and in the U.S. With more than 3,500 deaths and about 8,000 reported cases, it is one of the most severe disease outbreaks in recent years.
Wednesday, October 08, 2014
The Gold Bug is Set to Bite Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: EWI
Since hitting a record high of $1921.50 per ounce in September 2011, gold prices have erased 30% in value. By the end of day on October 3, 2014, gold prices were circling the drain of a 15-month low.
After such devastation, the global community of gold analysts, advisors and investors finds itself scattered as an anthill colony after being stepped on by a giant bear paw. This recent Forbes article captures the divisiveness among gold watchers:
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Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Gold and the S&P 500 Index: Sum and Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
The US national debt in 1989 was about $2.8 Trillion. Twenty Five years later, in 2014, that debt had increased by a factor of about 6.3 to $17.8 Trillion.
For many decades the US piled on more debt, increased the currency in circulation much more rapidly than the economy grew, and of course, caused consumer prices to increase substantially. Naturally the S&P 500 Index increased, as did the price of gold, since each dollar was worth less.
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Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Huge Reversal in USD and Gold - Finally! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The precious metals market finally rallied yesterday. Gold moved lower in the first hours of the session, getting very close to the Dec. 2013 low, but it rallied before the session was over, finally closing over $16 higher. Is the final bottom in?
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Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Silver “Particularly Cheap” as “Blood On The Commodity Streets” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
With few exceptions, commodity prices have fallen sharply in recent months, to their lowest levels in over a year.
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Why NED Davis is Dead Wrong About Gold Price Falling to $660 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jason_Hamlin
John LaForge, commodities strategist at Ned Davis Research says gold is going to $660 an ounce.
In an appearance on CNBC on Thursday, LaForge said that the end of the current “supercycle” for gold could push the precious metal down to $660 an ounce, or about 40% lower than where it is currently trading.
LaForge said that in the 1980s, the price of gold fell about 65% from peak-to-trough as the precious metal endured a 20-year bear market. And after hitting $1900 an ounce in 2011, gold should see a similar peak-to-trough decline in the current cycle.
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Monday, October 06, 2014
Gold Price Support At $1,180/oz and $1,161/oz, Then At $1,000/oz / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Gold had a torrid September and suffered further losses last week of 2.2%.
Gold in U.S. Dollars, 5 Years (Thomson Reuters)
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Monday, October 06, 2014
Long-term Forecast for Commodity Prices and Mining Industry Funding / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Dr_Volkmar_G_Hable
Rising global scarcity of resources – metals, minerals and energy – that an ever-increasing human population uses every day to sustain its unsustainable lifestyle, has been the most important topic since the burst of the dotcom bubble in 2000. The reason is simple: we live on a planet with a distinctly finite resource base and a rapidly growing population.For over the last twelve years supply has struggled to keep pace with demand. Yet we experience a collective breakdown among junior miners of epic historical proportions. Confused investors have been questioning their portfolio strategies and have withdrawn their money from “value in the ground” to re-invest it into scarily overvalued internet companies with questionable earnings and even more precarious business models built on promises of more bites and bytes. Today’s situation displays eerie similarities to the business and economic developments leading up to year 2000 and the events we remember all too well. I am considering a new article with the title “50 shades of investor insanity”.
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Sunday, October 05, 2014
CRB Heading into its Three Year Cycle Low / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Toby_Connor
Now that oil has made a lower intermediate low warning bells are ringing that the commodity complex has more than likely begun the move down into its three-year cycle low. That bottom isn’t due until May or June of next year at the earliest.