Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bitcoin Price Dancing around $1,000 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Needham & Co., an investment firm, has issued a new report on the potential success of three prospective Bitcoin ETF. In the report, we read:

Given elevated interest in the bitcoin ETFs that are going through the regulatory approval process we're revisting the subject with a deeper dive to take a look at the factors that may affect approval, differences between the three filings, market indicators of approval odds, and the effect of approval/disapproval on price. Overall, we maintain our estimates that the likelihood of approval is less than 25% but that, if it were approved, such an ETF would be extremely successful. That said, there are some market indicators that seem to suggest higher odds than our own estimates. Ultimately, while we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, we think the SEC is likely to disapprove out of an abundance of caution around bitcoin itself (as opposed to something specific to the filing).

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bankrupt US and Venezuelan Regimes Barring Travel to Citizenry Attempting to Flee / Politics / Social Issues

By: Jeff_Berwick

Over the past few years we have watched the situation in Venezuela continually deteriorate as the country’s socialist regime led by Nicolas Maduro has helped to hyperinflate the nation into oblivion.

For Venezuelans, this runaway inflation has come with a number of awful consequences.
The situation is especially dire in Caracas where people often have to kill and eat stray animals to survive since the bread lines which stretch blocks, oftentimes run out of food.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

All the Fake News That’s Fit to Print / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: BATR

Understanding the complex relationships that make up human endeavors permeates every aspect of society and politics. The ability to be informed about events is a basic motivation to search out news about what is exactly happening in the world we all live in. Journalism purports to report the first draft of history. In practice the press and media coverage is systemically bereft of relevant facts and completely void of objectivity. The currency of the realm is trust for all journalists. Their collective credibility is bankrupt for a very simple reason; their newscasts are based upon lies, newspeak and intentional deception.  

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Trump A New Jacksonian Era? The Fourth Turning (2) / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part One of this article I documented the populist administration of Andrew Jackson and similarities to Donald Trump's populist victory in the recent election. I'll now try to assess the chances of a Trump presidency accomplishing its populist agenda.

The Trumpian Era

"But you must remember, my fellow-citizens, that eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing. It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes." - Andrew Jackson

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Stock Market Yet Another Wall Street 'Witch's Brew' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

WITCH'S BREW: Sentiment UP, Complacency UP - but Uncertainty Also UP (Not DOWN?)

When did the distortion start occurring in the markets when increasing UNCERTAINTY can come with an increase in COMPLACENCY and SENTIMENT?

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Rubino

You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise – it shows historic, egregious overvaluation which, if history is any guide, implies a crash is close at hand.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Europe Eyes Sweeping Cash Ban: Are Gold & Silver Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

The global war on cash continues. The cabal of bankers seeking more transaction fees, busybody political leaders, and central bankers who want to experiment with negative interest rates recently threw India into turmoil by eliminating the two largest denomination bank notes.

Now they are preparing a similar assault on Europeans’ ability to transact privately and without giving bankers a cut. European Union officials just published a "Proposal for an EU Initiative on Restriction on Payments in Cash."

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

How to Easily ID Support and Resistance on Your Charts, Bank of America Example / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: EWI

See an example in the chart of Bank of America (BAC)

You've probably heard the terms "support" and "resistance." Common technical analysis terms, they are price points on a chart that can help determine when a move will pause, or even stop and reverse.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Proposed Tax Reforms Face Enormous Headwinds / Politics / Taxes

By: John_Mauldin

Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management produce a must-read quarterly letter I’ve featured multiple times in my weekly newsletter, Outside the Box (subscribe here for free).

This piece on tax reform is one of the most important pieces they’ve written in a long time.

Lacy and Van establish that proposed tax reforms will face enormous headwinds that were not there during previous tax-reform eras. This means that the benefits that Republicans think will accrue are likely to take longer to appear… and be less than expected. And that means it will take more than what is proposed right now to jump-start the economy.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Americans Will Pay For Trump’s “America First” Plan / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian says the American consumer will pay for Trump’s “America First” plan.

In a recent video interview with Mauldin Economics, Jared Dillian notes that Trump’s new “America First” trade policy is anti-free trade. Plus, given the Republican Party has been the champion of free trade for decades, Trump’s new trade policy does not sit well with many in the party.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Stock Market is Playing Pied Piper / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is approaching its next Cyclical hourly interval at 64.5 hours. I went back to see what I may have missed and the obvious item is the Wave relationship where Wave 5 seeks equality with the length of Wave 1. That occurs at 2332.13. The match does not have to be exact. A near miss or a slight overshoot can happen.

The Cycle Top support is now at 2313.50. That may be used as an advance warning of a probable trend change.

Monday, February 13, 2017

BBC Inside Out Tesco Rip off Offers - Determined to Lose Big Spend Customers! / ConsumerWatch / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At 7.30pm tonight the BBC's Inside Out programme will be broadcasting (also available on iplayer) of how Tesco customers are being ripped off as shelf advertised offers fail to convert at the checkouts due to the promotions having ended days, weeks or even months earlier! For instance 'buy 1 get 1 free', at the checkout can result in customers paying double the expected price in most of Tesco stores, as the BBC investigation showed 30 out of 50 stores tested demonstrating the issue of advertising promotions that do not convert at the checkout tills!

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Submissions

Monday, February 13, 2017

Stock Market VIX Cycles set to Explode in March/April 2017 – Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Previously, I authored a “Part 1” of this article regarding my analysis of the VIX cycles.  I sincerely hope my readers enjoyed the analysis and I hope it opened up a few questions regarding the potential moves in the US and global markets.  Today, we will delve deeper into the concept of the VIX cycle patterns that I’ve identified and use common technical analysis concepts to attempt to identify price target levels as well as support and resistance that may become important in the immediate future.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.

Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the Gold Silver Ratio Predictive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

Gold Silver Ratio

One aspect of the precious metals market today that I like is the Gold Silver Ratio.  It appears to have topped, right along with the 2016 gold bottom, and for all gold bull followers out there this is certainly a welcomed development.  Precious metals bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold.  As a result, the Gold Silver Ratio rises during bear markets and then falls during bull markets.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Stocks At Record Highs - Will Uptrend Accelerate? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, February 13, 2017

US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is This The Top Commodity Play For 2017? / Commodities / Lithium

By: OilPrice_Com

The sweetest spot in the Lithium rush is now definitively Chile: It’s the world’s biggest venue, and it’s about to explode as Tesla flips the switch on its battery gigafactory, Chinese-Korean investors prepare to drop $2 billion on a new Chilean gigafactory, and the government has a change of heart that has lithium at its core.

Against this backdrop, we’re not just looking at the new ‘Who’s Who’ of lithium. We’re beyond that. Now we’re looking at who’s going to advance to new production first, with the highest grades of low-cost lithium.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Tesco Crisis - BBC Investigation Reveals Customers Being Short Changed Due to Staff Cuts / ConsumerWatch / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

BBC Insight programme to be broadcast tonight at 7.30pm will reveal that Tesco customers are being short changed by promotions that have expired but are still being advertised on the shelves thus when customers for instance 'buy 1 get 1 free', instead end up paying double the expected price in most Tesco stores. As a Tesco shopper I have long since been aware of this issue which is why I always check the date that the offer replies to. Though this tends to be in small print so can be difficult to see with ageing eyesight. Also I have witnessed the SAME phenomena whilst shopping at Morrisons and Asda, though not on the same scale of Tesco. Still it does require the dates of every offer to be checked.