Monday, February 21, 2022
Why the "60 / 40 Balance" May Be Hazardous to Your Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Notice the similar pattern between these two bond charts
Financial advisors have long advocated a mix of 60% stocks / 40% bonds to cushion portfolios from downturns in the stock market.
The thinking is that stocks go up in the long-term, hence, that's where investors should allocate the most. At the same time, advisors acknowledge that stock prices can sometimes go down so "less risky" bonds will provide at least some protection.
The problem with this investment strategy is that bonds can go into bear markets too. Moreover, they can do so at the same time as stocks.
Let's review what happened during the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Here's a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2021 Last Chance to Conquer the Crash:
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Saturday, February 19, 2022
Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Crypto Will Devour the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Longtime RiskHedge readers know crypto is one of the best moneymaking opportunities in the world. Cryptos like Ethereum (ETH) have outperformed even the hottest stocks by 10X in the past few years.
And we’re still only in the first inning of this opportunity. For example, did you know Apple (AAPL) is larger than the entire crypto market?
This fact alone makes my big call sound totally absurd…
Crypto will devour the stock market.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Useful Budgeting Tips for a Home Renovation / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Steve_Barker
Are you in the process of planning a home renovation? If so, you're probably trying to figure out how to fit the project into your budget. It can be tricky to stay on track when working with a limited amount of money. But don't worry, you’re in the right place! This article will guide you through some tips to consider while budgeting for your home renovation.
Look at Cost vs. Value
When planning your budget, consider both the cost and the value of each renovation project. Some projects, like a new roof or windows, offer good value for the money. Other projects, like a kitchen remodel or home addition, may be more expensive, but can also increase the value of your home. It’s crucial to weigh up the cost and benefits of each project before deciding which ones to include in your budget. Knowing the average kitchen renovation cost worldwide will help you plan your kitchen renovation project budget.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather
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Friday, February 18, 2022
2 Ways To Play The Commodity Boom In 2022 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: OilPrice_Com
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Gold: Break-Out or Fake-Out? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Michael Ballanger looks at the recent rise in the gold price in light of what is happening in the broader markets and geopolitical activity.
Before I expand upon the events of the past week that caught my increasingly illusory attention span, I wish to impart upon my readers one of the many chasms that separate the generational narratives these days. When I first entered the Hallowed Halls of Bay Street in 1977, I was trained by men and women that can only be described as “warriors” in the sense that they carried a code of conduct into battle each and every day. Notwithstanding the blue blazers and grey-flannel slacks accompanying the perfunctory buttoned-down dress shirt, there was never a day nor occasion, no matter how casual, that did not demand a jacket and tie.
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Stock Market Stumbling Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.
It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that:
(...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.
Thursday, February 17, 2022
This Rare Gas Is Now Worth 100X More Than Natural Gas / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Stock Market Mean Reversion / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Russia Ukraine Tension Blinded Gold Ignores the Real Threats: USDX and Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation.
With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market.
However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Stocks Fall as Gold and Oil Jumps Amid Tension Over Ukraine – FED / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture.
We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.”
Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting.
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Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Facebook, Microsoft… now Walmart? The Metaverse! / Companies / Metaverse
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler : The world’s largest retailer has its eyes set on the metaverse.
I’m talking about Walmart (WMT), where more than 240 million shoppers visit each week. Walmart’s not the sort of business you’d expect to dive headfirst into a brand-new tech megatrend.
But it recently revealed its massive plans for the metaverse.
On December 30, Walmart filed several new trademarks indicating its intent to sell virtual toys, sporting goods, and home decorations.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Helium Prices Are Set To Soar As Supply Shortage Looms / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: OilPrice_Com
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH MATHS / / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just remember this, for ARK or any stock to recover from a 60% drop the stock has to go up by 150%! Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
US Price Inflation Rates Shoot Above the 1980 Peak / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Americans get fed a lot of BS when it comes to price inflation. Prices in the U.S. are rising faster than they were in the late 1970s when gasoline shortages triggered an economic crisis.
Today, supply chain disruptions and exploding prices are also nearing crisis levels.
Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic rise in dishonesty amongst politicians, bankers, and the corporate press on this subject. They hide the truth on inflation for a couple of reasons.
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
US Treasury Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where’s The Beef? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I’ve been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game?
Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders’ minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets?
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Hot New Inflation Reading Spotlights Fed Failures / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Another hotter than expected inflation report jolted markets this week.
On Thursday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index report. The CPI surged 7.5% in January from a year earlier. That exceeded most forecasts and marked a new four-decade high for consumer price increases. Brian Cheung of Yahoo Finance gives his take on the situation:
Brian Cheung: Price’s (are) rising in the United States across the board by 0.6% on a month-over-month basis. If you index it over a year-over-year period, 7.5% was the growth that we had seen in the report. That is well above the Street's estimates of 7.3% and continues to ratchet up. We've seen Joe Biden talk very frequently, lately, anytime he has the podium about the impact of inflation on Americans. That's because this is becoming a huge and already is becoming a huge political issue for him. Now, of course, all eyes are not just on the White House, in Congress where they engineer fiscal policy, from the Federal Reserve as well -- where the extraordinary monetary stimulus has obviously led to some sort of demand push that is leading to inflation that is not fading as fast as Federal Reserve officials had originally hoped or messaged in the beginning of 2021. That's going to be a very interesting story as we get to that mid-March meeting where the Fed is expected to start raising rates.
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
How To Profit From The Coming Helium Wars / Companies / Investing 2022
By: OilPrice_Com
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