Saturday, February 06, 2016
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Six months ago Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney in 'forward guidance' at the time gave his intentions to start to raise UK interest rates early 2016, that in the run up to the Fed December rate hike had galvanised many to expect a similar trailing response from the Bank of England to gradually follow the Fed towards normalisation of UK interest rates towards a target of 2.5% over 3 years i.e. by Mid 2018.
"Short-term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since around the Bank's inception three centuries ago, the same average as during the pre-crisis period when inflation was at target...
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold Price, Mining Stocks Rocket Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold and its miners’ stocks are rocketing higher as speculators and investors alike return to this left-for-dead sector. This sudden deluge of capital inflows has crowned gold stocks the best-performing sector of this young new year by far, shocking traders. And this stunning reversal of fortunes in both the metal and the companies producing it is only starting, so it’s exceedingly important to understand what’s going on.
Gold was inarguably the world’s most-hated investment in recent years. No one wanted anything to do with it, because no one felt any need for it. The world’s stock markets were relentlessly levitating, thanks to record easing by the world’s elite central banks. And with stocks seemingly destined to do nothing but rally indefinitely, there was little demand for counter-moving gold for prudent portfolio diversification.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Illusory Economic Recovery Supported by Hot Money / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sol_Palha
Is this economic recovery real? Well if you base your observations on how far the Dow has risen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and on the B.S statistics the BLS puts out, the answer would be a yes. However, if you do just a little cursory digging, you will spot that this economic recovery is nothing but a grand illusion. The following factors clearly prove that this recovery is not real. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 05, 2016
Pity the USD longs! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
An opinion by ZeroHedge on this morning’s payroll report caught my attention. They opine, “The most obvious reaction to the "great" drop in the unemployment rate and "huge miss" in payrolls is a rise (yes rise) in rate-hike odds for 2016. This appears to be why the Dollar is spiking and bonds, stocks, crude, gold and everything else is being sold...”
Unfortunately the USD retracement is losing momentum at 97.24, just above mid-Cycle support/resistance at 96.99.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold Reversal and Last Chance for Stock Market Shorts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Gold reversed this morning after making a throw-over above the ending diagonal formation. So far, the low is at 1145.68. A decline beneath 1138.00 puts it back into the formation,, while a break at 1126.88 confirms the new trend.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DeviantInvestor
Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough. This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others.
Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Is the Gold Price Manipulated? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The claim that the gold prices are manipulated is one of the most popular notions within the gold investing community. Probably, no other market (except the silver market) holds such a belief so strongly. The core argument goes as follows: an increase in price of gold signals inflation and the decline in the value of fiat currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, which undermines confidence in the contemporary monetary system. Thus, governments, central banks and their collaborators from the financial system are heavily interested in suppressing the price of gold.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold And Silver Best Performing Assets – Up 9% and 8% YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold is 3.6% higher this week and is now over 9% higher year to date. The dollar saw sharp falls this week on growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates. The gains this week were due to increasing concerns about the U.S. and global economy.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold Stocks Sector: Rubber, Meet Road / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
You may have noticed that I have written relatively little publicly about the gold sector over the last few years (we have covered it consistently in NFTRH to keep subscribers aware of the bear’s status, and protected against it). Is that strange for a writer who was probably known first and foremost as a ‘gold guy’? Not at all! It’s just that it is not desirable to get bogged down obsessing on a sector in a bear market when there are other fish to fry on the global macro landscape. But the process of finding and confirming a bottom in the gold sector is now front and center as more of the fundamentals that actually matter come into place. To those fundamentals, we need to marry the technicals.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold and Silver: Ripe for a Recovery! China May well Change the Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Peter_Zihlmann
- China lifts reading of cenbank gold holdings by 57 pct
- Gold now accounts for 1.65 pct of total forex reserves
According to Central Bank Data, China's gold reserves stood at 1,658 tonnes at the end of June of last year. This was up 57 percent from the last time reserve were adjusted more than six years ago.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Gold Price Soars on Revised FED Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jason_Hamlin
If FED backtracks from rate hikes, gold miners can go up 50%. – CNBC Feb 4th, 2016
We have been predicting for months that the FED would not be able to raise rates as aggressively as the market was expecting. Thus, we have been long gold and mining stocks believing that a reset in expectations for how fast the FED would raise rates would be bearish for the USD and bullish for gold.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
U.S. Recession 2016 has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.
It was another disastrous factory orders report this month.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
How Pension Plans are Responding to Financial Repression / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Gordon_T_Long
In this 35 minute video, Chief Executive of CREATE-Research, Amin Rajan discusses investing in the age of financial repression as well as key points for risk mitigation with FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long. CREATE-Research is a a network of prominent researchers undertaking high level advisory assignments for governments, global banks, fund managers, multinational companies and international bodies such as the EU, OECD and ILO. In 1998 Amin was awarded the Aspen Institute's Prize in leadership. It is a subject on which he has done extensive research involving some of today's outstanding business leaders. In two resulting publications, he has developed a close link between leadership and the emerging business models.
Friday, February 05, 2016
End of the Fed: It Can’t Do Any of the Things It’s Supposed to Do / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Jeff_Berwick
[The following is by TDV’s Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos]
Janet Yellen has been in the news with her often-stated determination to create price inflation.
Why Fed officials are so scared to death of the deflation we all look for at the shopping mall each weekend is anybody’s guess. Ours is that it keeps the crony banking system and its inflated bureaucracy afloat – on a sea of green, like in a yellow submarine.
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Friday, February 05, 2016
Senior Gold Producer Goldcorp Takes Large Stake in Nevada's Gold Standard Ventures / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
When Gold Standard Ventures announced on February 1 that Goldcorp would be investing CA$16.1 million for 9.9% of the junior's shares, industry watchers took notice. In this analysis written exclusively for Streetwise Reports, Thibaut Lepouttre, editor of Caesars Report, speculates on why the major acted when and where it did, and what it might mean for the future.
Friday, February 05, 2016
Tips for Smart Oil and Natural Gas Investing 2016 / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: The_Energy_Report
In today's tough price environment where most oil and gas juniors are losing money, a strong balance sheet is the key to survival, says Brian Bagnell. Access to liquidity will also help these companies hold on until prices rise again. Bagnell, a research analyst for Macquarie Capital Markets, tells The Energy Report he expects a gradual turnaround to begin late this year, and gives his tips on identifying companies that can weather the storm.
The Energy Report: Brian, is there a production cost for North American oil and gas producers at which most juniors can no longer afford to operate?
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Friday, February 05, 2016
As the Stock Market Turns... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX rallied to the Broadening trendline, then began impulsing down. The wackiness may be over and the puzzle appears solved. This may actually be a point 7 (an extra zigzag) within what is normally referred to as a five point reversal. All moves within the Broadening formation are corrective, which makes the outcome confusing and uncertain…until it is over.
Thursday, February 04, 2016
South Africa Economy from Hero to Zero / Economics / Africa
By: AnyOption
On 19 November 2015, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hike interest rates by 25-basis points from 6% to 6.25%. The forecast for the next interest-rate meeting on 28 January 2016 was 25-basis points, for an overall interest rate of 6.5%. The SARB surprised everyone when it hiked interest rates by 0.5% to the prevailing interest rate of 6.75%. This bold initiative is one of the more drastic steps that can be taken by the authorities when currencies are depreciating rapidly. This is a way to arrest further declines in the value of the ZAR on the international stage.
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Thursday, February 04, 2016
Another Corporate Giant Is Leaving the U.S. – What This Means for You / Companies / Corporate News
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno
Try getting in shape for a marathon on an all-McDonald’s diet...
You wouldn’t be surprised to come in dead last. After all, you didn’t put in much effort. Actually, you went out of your way to make yourself less competitive. So you would expect to lose.
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Thursday, February 04, 2016
Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession? / Economics / Currency War
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am entertaining the notion of a "Job Gain Recession".
A chart of year-over-year nonfarm employment shows that's nearly what happened in the 1970 and 1980 recessions.
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