Friday, January 15, 2016

Major Stocks Bear Market Awakening / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway.  The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation.  Unfortunately the only possible reckoning after such a record artificial stock boost is a long-overdue major bear market that is finally awakening.

Just a month ago, the stock markets looked radically different.  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee that sets monetary policy mustered the courage to hike rates, ending exactly 7 years of a record zero-interest-rate policy.  Stock traders rejoiced, interpreting the first rate hike in 9.5 years as a sign the Fed had great confidence that the US economy was improving.  So they bid stocks higher that day.

Friday, January 15, 2016

U.S. Consumers Drowning Their Sorrows At The Bar / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Month after month I watch as the MSM mouthpieces try to spin declining consumer spending in a positive light. They are practically out of excuses. They are befuddled, because month after month they report “awesome” job gains and can’t understand why all these gainfully employed Americans aren’t buying shit they don’t need like they used to. These faux journalists, spouting propaganda for their ruling class bosses, are willfully ignorant of the fact the job gains are in low paying part-time jobs and the fact that Obamacare and record high rents are sapping any discretionary income households would use to buy stuff.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Gold Price in 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

We all know that gold prices in US dollars have been in a downtrend for about 4.5 years.

We all know that gold prices rise, on average, as the underlying currency declines in value.  Gold in the US was priced under $21 per ounce when the Federal Reserve was established.  Since then the dollar has been devalued and gold has increased in price by a factor of about 50.

It is the same story around the world, whether you evaluate in terms of British pounds, euros, rubles, yen, or any other debt based fiat paper currency.

Friday, January 15, 2016

VIX Asleep as Stock Market Weakness Escalates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ashraf_Laidi

One notable reason the VIX is trading at only half the level seen in August (53.0), a time when equity indices plunged near today's levels is related to market's absorption of risk versus macro negatives.

The China devaluation of August 24 came as a complete surprise to financial markets, which were neither ready for the PBOC's FX manoeuvres, nor prepared for the dangers of rapid decline in the currency of the world's biggest buyer of commodities as they are today.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Gold Bullion Retains “Key Role Of A Major Diversifier” – Dr Gurdgiev / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

- 2015 and start 2016 “worrying” for markets
- Gold’s long term performance strong in all currencies (see table)
- “Improved performance in market for gold coins”
- “Demand for U.S. Mint issued gold coins rose 45.6% y/y in weight terms”
- “2015 the third busiest year over the last ten years”
- Gold has key role of a major diversifier in portfolios

Friday, January 15, 2016

A Huge Gap Down Awaits the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to have crossed beneath its neckline and may be challenging its September 29 low at 1871.91. A fall beneath the August 24 low at 1867.01 may release a barrage of sell orders, driving the SPX to the final support level at 1820.66 made on October 15, 2014.

Whether intentional or not, this may trap a lot of bulls in a very dicey proposition. Hoping for a bottom today is not a viable strategy. Today’s outcome was amply suggested yesterday by the Hi-Lo Index, which closed very near the bottom of its range at -698.00.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Stocks Bear Market Gaining Momentum / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Christopher_Quigley

On the 15th. of December last we noted that the Dow Transports had given a re-confirmed bear signal and accordingly we advised caution. Since then the Dow Industrials have fallen 989 points (approx). The Industrials need to break the 15,750 level for a full bear market to be re-confirmed. Based on yesterday’s price action, in all probability, this will happen sooner rather than later. (Remember our initial Dow Theory sell signal was triggered January 2015).

Friday, January 15, 2016

Re-Covering Oil and War / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The first thing that popped into our minds on Tuesday when WTI oil briefly broached $30 for its first $20 handle in many years, was that this should be triggering a Gawdawful amount of bets, $30 being such an obvious number. Which in turn would of necessity lead to a -brief- rise in prices.

Apparently even that is not so easy to see, since when prices did indeed go up after, some 3% at the ‘top’, ‘analysts’ fell over each other talking up ‘bottom’, ‘rebound’ and even ‘recovery’. We’re really addicted to that recovery idea, aren’t we? Well, sorry, but this is not about recovering, it’s about covering (wagers).

Friday, January 15, 2016

Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows.

Friday, January 15, 2016

The Bond Bubble Has Begun Bursting / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The bursting of the bond bubble has begun.

As I’ve outlined previously the primary concern for Central Banks is the bond bubble. CNBC and other financial media focus on stocks because the asset class is more volatile and so makes for better content, but the foundation of the financial system is bonds. And bonds are THE focus for Central Banks.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Stock Market Flippity Flop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jesse

Stocks were in rally mode today, in an attempt to dampen fear and encourage confidence.

While they were most likely short term oversold, the 'rally' was all artifice, and had the feel of the kind of forced cheeriness in the big household during times of plague.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Brazillian Bovespa Stock Market Set To Rally / Stock-Markets / Brazil

By: Austin_Galt

The Brazillian stock index, the Bovespa, has generally been trading exactly as outlined back in May 2015 and I believe we now have the final low at hand with today's low of 38459.

Let's analyse the technicals using the daily and monthly charts.

Friday, January 15, 2016

War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.

The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the Middle East. First, the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out Iranian diplomatic personnel. Tehran banned Saudi goods from entering Iran. Worst of all, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in Yemen.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

The American Dream is Dying But it Can be Revived / Economics / US Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long follow-up to their discussion last month of the puzzle of the falling US Civilian Labor Participation Rate. In this session they tackle the issues associated with "Universal Basic Income" which the public narrative has begun to 'offer up' as a solution.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Retracement May be Winding Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The recent moves in SPX have added clarity to the Wave formation. On the left you can see the “best fit” of the Elliott Waves to the decline. The impulse ended at 1886.40, as originally proposed. The rest is a corrective retracement of that decline. Thus far, it has retraced 27.4% of the decline. It may go as high as the Wave [iv] peak at 1950.33, but may be finished already.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Dow Down Nearly 1,500 Points This Year While Obama Claims U.S. Economy Is Great / Economics / US Economy

By: Jeff_Berwick

America, the individual triumph of  millions of individuals through the generations  has now become the “United State” and like any fascist or communist dictatorship, lies have increased as  freedom  has decreased. Many huddled around their TV sets (although in decreasing numbers – which is the real hope!) and heard a concentrated dose of untruths last night from the Great Leader for the “State of the Union”.

I didn’t watch.  Politicians make me sick to my stomach and the sight of an entire throng of welfare-recipients (Congress) cheering for minutes on end for a man who has never held a real job in his life as he reads from his teleprompter is too much of a chore.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Rally with No Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX completed a Wave (b) of [ii] at 1878.93. Wave (b)s are erratic and do not obey trendlines and necklines as a general rule. While this Wave (b) did break the neckline, it didn’t stay beneath due to the necessity of Wave (c) to finish the correction and relieve the oversold condition. So my anticipation of a pop this morning was correct, but not in the way I had anticipated.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Stock Market Analysts are Now Bearish... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Head & Shoulders neckline has now been crossed. As soon as it is retested from beneath, we may see a much larger decline in speed and distance. There is a lot of open space between the neckline and the next support.

The analyst community have thrown in the towel, as ZeroHedge reports, “Something has definitely changed in the market: while for the past seven years (a period largely coincident with an easy, ZIRPing or QEing Fed) every day would be greeted with numerous research pieces, all urging traders to buy the dip, and to otherwise stay invested in stocks, now all the equity firms have turned their back on the S&P, and first Goldman, then JPM, then UBS, then every other equity trader has urged clients not only not to BTFD any more, but to STFR.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Market Forecasts 2016: An About-Face for the Fed and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Peter_Schiff

Synopsis: The Federal Reserve's December interest rate hike was actually the end of the Fed's tightening cycle that began with the first taper talk several years ago. The Fed will be forced to restart QE and lower interest rates again (maybe even into negative territory) when it becomes clear the US economy is sliding back into recession. When that happens, investors who have been selling gold on expectations of economic health will have to reverse their bets and begin buying as gold rallies.