Thursday, April 01, 2021
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Positions in the USDX are shifting from shorts to longs, so gold investors should look closely. Why? Because it’s an inverse relationship.
We’ve discussed the negative correlation between the dollar and the precious metals many times before, but it can never be discussed enough, particularly as the situation develops and the outlook for the USD Index becomes more positive.
Once the USD Index lands some knockout punches, the precious metals will be hurting, as they tend to do when the dollar rises. Gold, silver and the miners will eventually rise, but for the medium-term, they are still in bearish territory.
Counted out, counted down and rarely counted on, investors threw in the USD Index’s towel long before the fight even began. However, after shaking the cobwebs and landing a few haymakers, the greenback’s Rocky-like comeback is proof that ‘it ain’t over till it’s over.’
Let’s look at the factors influencing rise of the USD Index as well as some of the historical patterns:
Thursday, April 01, 2021
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market
When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50. Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak. Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.
Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:
(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.
Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.
Thursday, April 01, 2021
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Precious Metals have continued to slide sideways as the US stock markets have rallied into the FOMC meeting last week. Not by coincidence, metals have continued to base/bottom near recent lows as concerns about the global debt/credit markets, central banks, and precious metal supplies continue to linger. The US Fed indicated it will do whatever is necessary to support the recovering economy. The question my research team asks in relation to the basis for a move in metals/miners is “do the global markets believe the global central banks still have control of the underlying global banking/credit markets well enough to prevent another massive rally in metals?”.
This question should be first and foremost for metals precious metals enthusiasts. Recently, there has been quite a bit of concern related to a Silver Squeeze and COMEX deliveries. Currently, there is some speculation that the Perth Mint has a very limited supply of physical metals on hand and nearly 60x that amount on their balance sheets (Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/mc18no/perth_mint_unallocated_silver_is_not_backed_by/). We’re no expert related to this lack of physical inventory, but if it is true, then a breakout rally in metals (a true metals SQUEEZE) could be just days or weeks away.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are struggling against the headwind of a rising U.S. dollar this week.
The dollar index broke out to a four-month high on Thursday. Neither a much-awaited fall in bond yields nor dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dissuaded currency traders from buying Greenbacks and selling other fiat currencies.
Commodities and precious metals markets also saw some selling.
Despite choppy trading in metals markets so far in 2021, intense demand for coins, bars, and rounds continues to strain supply chains in the bullion market. Some mints and dealers are simply unable to deliver product to their customers in a timely manner.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2021
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their desktop PC can make easy money crypto mining and here's how much I have actually made crypto mining in the background with my desktop PC over the past 3 weeks, as a real world example of what to expect if you have something like an RTX 3080 GPU in your system, all whilst continuing to work on the PC as norma with the the likes of NiceHash crypto mining in the background, where you get paid in BITCOIN and not useless obscure crypto coin, so do check out Nicehash to start crypto mining with your desktop PC.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2021
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Mills
Inflation is the rate at which prices within a basket of goods or services (called the consumer price index or CPI) rise or fall. When a currency falls, the ability of that unit of money to purchase goods and services weakens, ie., it takes more units of currency to buy the same basket of goods as before it weakened. The more a currency falls, the less you can buy with it because its purchasing power decreases. We call this devaluation/ loss of purchasing power.
Casey Research founder Doug Casey believes we often put the cart before the horse when thinking about inflation. The renowned investor, author, and speaker states,
“Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.
Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. Inflation is the work of government alone since government alone controls the creation of currency.
Indeed, governments in fiat economies can literally print paper money “out of thin air,” something impossible to do with a gold-backed currency. When the United States and most of the world was on the gold standard, dollars could be converted to gold at the US Treasury’s “gold window” @ 1 oz=US$35. However, the US government was only allowed to create as much money as could be backed by the gold in its faults. (it is often said, “the Fed can’t print gold” (or silver).
When gold goes up or down it is not inherently losing value; what has changed is the value of paper money, the fiat dollar. When you buy gold to resist inflation, ie., rising prices that eat away your savings by reducing your purchasing power, it is called a hedge against inflation.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2021
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another day, another reversal – and a positive one for stocks. Universal sectoral weakness gave way to a unison rebound amid constructive outside markets. After weeks of on and off fits over rising Treasury yields, S&P 500 ran into headwinds on their retreat, and recaptured its luster yesterday as long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) rolled over to the downside. I guess nothing boosts confidence as much a troubled 7-year Treasury auction.
While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Steve_Barker
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Wednesday, March 31, 2021
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: S_N_Chatterjee
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Is Silver the New Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold this year. It’s possible, but investors shouldn’t count on improving economic conditions and industrial demand.Silver has recently become a hot investment theme. For months, if not years, some analysts claimed that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Then, at the beginning of 2021, Reddit revolutionaries tried to trigger a short squeeze in silver. Although that attempt failed, silver has, so far, clearly been outperforming gold this year , as the chart below shows. So, is silver now a better investment than gold?
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Have Commodities Peaked? We Doubt It / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While everyone was paying attention to the FOMC, Gold & Silver, and the Treasury Yields, it appears the recent commodity rally trend took a big hit on Thursday, March 18, 2021. Our guess is that the FOMC statement did nothing to support the continued commodity price rally as the US Fed continued with near-zero interest rates and economic support through 2023. The rally in commodities was likely based on expectations of a much stronger economic recovery as the COVID vaccines take the pressure off economic shutdowns and further restrictive economic conditions, but that may not be the case.
Commodities Rollover May Be Misleading Traders
The rollover in commodities suggests the markets are reacting to renewed expectations, post-FOMC. They may continue to consolidate near support (near $16.30) before attempting to move higher as traders digest the Fed comments and fall back into economic recovery expectations. Any move below $16.00 as seen on the chart below may likely prompt a consolidation phase within historical support channels (see the Weekly DBC chart below).
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
An Ultimate Guide for Cryptocurrency Trading in Australia / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
The Different Types of Crowdfunding / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Helicopter Money Vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, looks at the Fed's actions and what they augur for gold. This week Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the "Innovation Summit" hosted by the Bank for International Settlements.
During his talk, he dissed Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies saying they were "…highly volatile and therefore not really useful stores of value, and they're not backed by anything."
OK, let me get this straight.
At its latest FOMC meeting the Fed promised near-zero interest with no rate hikes until 2023, and its $120 billion monthly asset purchases see no sign of abating.
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Stock Market Risk-off Is Back Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the sectoral reaction to still retreating yields, is worrying. Yesterday‘s session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:
(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise.
Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn‘t work yesterday or the day before, and that‘s short-term concerning for the stock market bull health – as in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn‘t though over by a long shot – all we‘re going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation – I still stand by my year end call for $SPX at 4200.
It‘s commodities that are under the greatest pressure now, and the copper and oil signals doesn‘t bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-Nov 2020 sharp gains – they are no longer frontrunning inflation expectations. This has also consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.
Monday, March 29, 2021
Building 7 Desktop PC Systems in 14 Hours for Charity in 2001 for Shipment to Cuba / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Once upon a time when 2001 was supposed to become a Space Oddessy reality Pentium class cpu computers were deemed to be the gold standard in desktop PC systems, and in that time those who had the knowledge and skill to rapidly assemble such machines were in high premium demand. And so I gave up my time to a local charity that asked me to build 7 working machines from a collection of donated parts, old machines and components that I had bought so that they could be shipped off to a collective in Cuba who were in much need of desktops given the trade blockade that Cuba was under from the US, so that this developing nation could start to join the information age.
Here's the video I made during my 14 hour ordeal, vowing NEVER AGAIN would I agree to build more than 1 computer in any one day, still this was for charity where the container ship was destined to leave Britain's shores for Cuba virtually as soon as the 7 or 8 machines were built and transported off to port during the morning.
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Powell and Yellen Sound Upbeat. Don’t They Like Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Both Powell and Yellen testified before Congress. They sounded upbeat on the U.S. economy, but gold’s reaction was weak.What a combo! Both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified before Congress this week. They spoke about the economic response to the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Great Lockdown .
In his prepared remarks , Powell sounded rather hawkish , as he noted that “the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening.” As well, during the Q&A session, the Fed Chair seemed to be very confident about the economy and the central bank’s monetary policy . In particular, Powell told senators that 2021 was “going to be a very, very strong year in the most likely case.”
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