Sunday, February 21, 2021

US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!

Sunday, February 21, 2021

S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while the S&P 500 bull run goes on. Stocks are likely to run quite higher before meeting a serious correction.

As I argued in yesterday‘s detailed analysis of the Fed policies, their current stance won‘t bring stocks down. But it‘s taking down long-term Treasuries, exerting pressure on the dollar (top in the making called previous Monday), and fuelling commodities – albeit at very differnt pace. The divergencies I have described yesterday, center on weak gold performance – not gaining traction through the monetary inflation, instead trading way closer in sympathy with Treasury prices.

Gold has frontrunned the other commodities through the corona deflationary shock, and appears waiting for more signs of inflation. It didn‘t make a final top in Aug 2020, and a new bear market didn‘t start. It‘s my opinion that thanks to the jittery Treasury markets, we‘re seeing these dislocations, and that once the Fed focuses on the long end of the curve in earnest, that would remove the albatross from gold‘s back.

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately.  The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?

Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad

My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level.  As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

In the current market environment, little else matters other than momentum. What’s moving up gets chased higher still by investors. And what can be moved up by any means is pursued by speculators who hope to jump-start a momentum trade.

It’s all being fueled by cheap money and government “stimulus.”

The consequences?

The U.S. stock market trades at an historically high premium to GDP (the so-called “Buffett indicator”).

Speculative trading frenzies in stocks such as GameStop defy any kind of fundamental analysis.

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Great Investment Ideas For 2021 / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Submissions

Buying and selling shares can be a profitable endeavor but it may depend on the way we approach it. Although there are a lot of ways through which we can spend all our free time, I think 'minimalist investing' is among the most appealing if not the top. We, here are some ways you can make it less of a burden in 2021.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.

Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!

This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into the movement among some companies to hold Bitcoin and gold rather than cash.

Imagine your favorite company getting sued for holding too much cash.

I know, that's a big statement. But hear me out.

Corporations, pension funds and insurance companies—anyone responsible to stakeholders—could one day face class action lawsuits if they don't diversify into other reserves assets. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, especially in today's litigious-happy world.

Michael Saylor famously bought bitcoin last year to diversify and protect the buying power of MicroStrategy's surplus cash…half a billion dollars' worth. Elon Musk recently did the same for Tesla, plowing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. Before either of these was Overtstock.com. Remember them?

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to try again today, but they should be tame in expectations. While there is some chart deterioration, it‘s not nearly enough to help fuel a full on bearish onslaught in the S&P 500. There is no serious correction starting now, nothing to really take down stocks seriously for the time being.

The Fed remains active, and monetary policy hasn‘t lost its charm (effect) just yet. Commodities and asset price inflation has been in high gear for quite some time, yet it‘s not a raging problem for the Main Street as evidenced by the CPI. Food price inflation, substitution and hedonistic adjustments in its calculation, are a different cup of tea, but CPI isn‘t biting yet.

Meanwhile, the real economy recovery goes on (just check yesterday‘s Empire State Manufacturing figures for proof), even without the $1.9T stimulus and infrastructure plans. Once we see signs of strain in the job market (higher participation rate, hourly earnings and hours worked), then the real, palpable inflation story can unfold. But we‘re talking 2022, or even 2023 to get there – and the Fed will just let it overshoot to compensate for the current and prior era.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD / Currencies / Euro

By: Submissions

The strength in US long-term yields is beginning to put downward pressure on the Euro as the dollar gains traction. The exchange rate is starting to edge through a critical support level, while the exchange rate is also oversold. Medium-term momentum remains negative, pointing to a lower exchange rate on the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD weekly forex trading chart shows that the currency pair topped out in January and appears to have broken through trend line support. The daily charts show a similar picture but also show that the exchange rate is oversold an might have moved too far too fast.

Friday, February 19, 2021

The Stock Market Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Palladium was manipulated for years. It had the largest short position relative to its size, while physical demand rose inversely to decreasing supply.

In 2018, demand became so large that it overwhelmed the shorts.

Physical palladium could not meet the market's needs and prices exploded. Shorts eventually decreased their positions until they got to a more sustainable level.

For many years, the platinum/palladium ratio, shown on proprietary charts, averaged 2.4 to 1 in favor of platinum, stretched as high as 5:1 in 2009, but then collapsed for a decade into 2020, to where 1 ounce of palladium would buy 5 ounces of platinum!

Friday, February 19, 2021

Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Hi everyone, it’s me Neil Szczepanski again and I’m back to finish off telling you why I love to trade options! If you missed the first half of this article entitled “5 Reasons Why People Prefer To Trade Options Over Stocks” then click on the title to revisit it.  In this second and final installment, I will walk through how adjustments and risk management of options can help give you better control of your trades and profits.  I hope everyone enjoys the information and I look forward to helping everyone win with options trading!

REDUCE RISK

Everyone has heard a story about someone who mischaracterized or misunderstood their options trade, then having their account blow up when the underlying stock goes the wrong way. This happened recently with a Robinhood trader who woke up one morning to see his account at -$730,165. In this tragic event the kid took his life because he thought he had lost $730,165 and couldn’t reach his brokerage to understand his account. We learned later that the negative balance did not represent uncollateralized indebtedness at all, but rather his temporary balance until the stocks underlying his assigned options actually settled into his account.  In short it was a delay in processing of the options contracts in his account, and not the actual trade that went awry.  This is why it is very important that in this game of trading you get the proper training so you understand your risk. The risk is real. 

Friday, February 19, 2021

Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.

Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

March Madness is a term referring to the college basketball single-elimination tournament of 68 teams, leading up to the “Final Four,” from which the ultimate college basketball champion is determined. Most of the games take place during the last half of March, with the ultimate winner determined in early April.

But, I am seeing potential for a March Madness setup in the equity market as well.

While analyst and investor alike have been scratching their heads at the amazing market rally, we have seen since we struck the low back in March, I think many will be surprised at the next phase of the rally, which may actually be one of the strongest.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test / Personal_Finance / Land Rover

By: HGR

Just how good are Land Rover Discovery Sports MAX DEF and windscreen wipers in cleaning frozen solid snow. Find out in my latest video where in thick icy snow give the wipers a test before I hit the MAX DEF button to see how quickly it can melt ice and the wipers and shift the snow.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations / Politics / NHS

By: N_Walayat

The mainstream press has gone off on a tangent where the story being peddled by the likes of the BBC to explain the lack of uptake of vaccinations amongst Britain's Black and Asian communities being put down to ignorance, gullible brown people who are easily susceptible to fake news stories, whatsapp and twitter messages.

You want to know the real reason why black and asian ethnic minorities are reluctant to get vaccinated?

It's the same reason why if your Black or Asian you very quickly learn to be cautious of the Police, even if you are a victim of a crime, not to be trusted.

Friday, February 19, 2021

New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's 25+ analysts regularly review more than 100+ market indicators to keep subscribers ahead of major turns.

Many of those are "technical" indicators. Others are "sentiment" related.