Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower.  That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy.  This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally.  That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Will Gold Shine Due to Coronavirus Infecting the Global Economy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With new cases of COVID-19 outside China rising, the chances of a pandemic and global recession have increased recently. What are the implications for the gold market?

Coronavirus Spreads Over the World

Unfortunately, the new coronavirus remains the hottest topic of the news. Although the COVID-19 epidemic has been slowing down in China since the beginning of February, it has quickly spread to several other countries. The WHO’s situation report from February 26 says that the infections of the new coronavirus has been reported in 37 countries. Actually, for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic on December 8, there have been more new cases reported from countries outside of China than from China. With so many countries, including the Western ones, struggling with the disease, the COVID-19 ceased to be Asian issue and has become a truly global issue. As world inches closer to the real pandemic, the financial markets could become even more nervous, so we could see more safe-haven flows into the gold market.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Sweden Ends Its Experiment with Negative Interest Rates. Should Gold Be Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In December, the Sveriges Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, has raised the main interest rate from -0.25 percent back to zero, ending its experiment with the negative interest rate policy, as the chart below shows.

Chart 1: Riksbank’s repo rate from January 2010 to January 2020.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold And Stocks Are Both Headed Lower, But… / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold and stocks are moving south together; but they are not correlated. Nor, are they inversely correlated, as some gold enthusiasts claim.

Reference to gold as a safe haven has some investors buying gold to hedge against a stock market crash. It is almost as if gold has become a pseudo defensive stock.

It seems investors actually expect gold’s price to go up when the stock market goes down; and vice-versa.

If that were the case, how do you explain the extended periods when both moved together; or the price action of gold relative to stocks in the past four days? Gold currently is lower in price than it was before stocks tumbled nearly 4000 points.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

South Korea Coronavirus COVID-19 WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Dow Stock Market Coronavirus Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

This video is part 4 of a series of analysis that warned of the increasing probability for a Coronavirus stocks bear market that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?. Which illustrates that the key driver for the stock market trend for much of 2020 is not going to be fundamental, or technical but rather VIRAL!.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

How Moving Averages Help You to Define Stock Market Trend / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: EWI

One way to think of a moving average is that it’s an automated trend line.

The "moving average" is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.

More than 30 years ago, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:

... a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Is This A Repeat of February 2018 Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Back in early 2018, after a dramatic rally in early January 2018, the US stock market collapsed suddenly and violently – falling nearly 12% in a matter of just 9 trading days.  Our researchers asked the question, is the current collapse similar to this type of move and could we expect a sudden market bottom to setup?

Although there are similarities between the setups of these two events, our researchers believe there are two unique differences between the selloff in 2018 and the current selloff.  We’ll attempt to cover these components and setups in detail.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

South Korea Coronavirus WARNING - R0 4.6 Outbreak Infection Rate! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Coronavirus pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 2931 infected and 17 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.

Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely more accurately reflects what to expect in terms of outbreaks in the West than China's statistics that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. In fact China's statistics are modeled on an outbreak starting Mid January rather than early December! And thus my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Stock Market Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

The Greatest Economic Depression Just Began. This Is No Drill / Economics / Great Depression II

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold rings the alarm bells on the fallout from the coronavirus. Exactly a month ago I warned that the coronavirus outbreak was going to pop the "Everything Bubble." I did something fairly subtle. I buried my main message under a whole heap of cow manure. It doesn't make a rat's ass if I was right or wrong about calling for a market crash in October or the Fed dumping piles of new crisp $100 bills onto a bonfire in September.

This time I'm going to put my message right at the top so no one can miss it. I quote from the January 27th piece, "This has the potential for being the biggest mass casualty event in world history. At the very least it will take down the financial system as the world economy grinds to a halt with efforts to contain the virus."

Friday, February 28, 2020

Stock Market Coronavirus Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

Friday, February 28, 2020

Stock Market SPX to Rise back to 3350 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: MEHABE

Global stocks tumbled to four-month lows, government debt yields sunk to unprecedented levels and crude oil extended declines as anxiety over the spread of the coronavirus surged. While climbing from the lows of the day, the six-day slide has still pushed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes down by more than 10% from all-time highs set this month, a so-called correction. The drop of as much as 10% since Friday puts the S&P on pace for its worst week since the 2008 global financial crisis. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell to the lowest since October, while the Stoxx Europe 600 also entered a correction.

Friday, February 28, 2020

Stock Performance in the Rising Coronavirus Fever / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The bulls didn’t really get their act together yesterday, and the early gains evaporated a few hours into the session. As stocks closed near their daily lows, what chances of invalidating Tuesday’s  breakdown below the important support do the buyers have?

Let’s briefly check what kind of progress the bears made yesterday on the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Friday, February 28, 2020

Stock Market SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 29, 2020, we issued this research post about a potential WaterFall selloff

Friday, February 28, 2020

Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger Stocks Bear Market 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Triggering a Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

• Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020
• QE4EVER
• As Goes January So Goes the Year
• Short-term Trend Analysis
• Long-term Trend Analysis
• ELLIOTT WAVES 
• Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
• Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
• TRADING THE DOW
• Will Trump Win US Presidential Election 2020?

TREND ANALYSIS 

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt / Politics / US Debt

By: Richard_Mills

Whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican installed in the White House this November, you can count on fiscal discipline going out the window. Neither the incumbent, President Donald J. Trump, nor the leading Democratic contender to replace him, Bernie Sanders, appears to give a hoot about shoveling more onto the enormous pile of debt that a few months ago shot past $23 trillion. 

Why does this matter? Because debt impedes economic growth . And just like a business, if a country isn’t growing, it’s dying. 

Keep that in mind as we explain how the real problem with the US economy, and what is driving gold prices ever higher, is not the coronavirus (though Covid-19 is certainly making things worse), but the 500-pound debt gorilla that is sitting on Uncle Sam’s chest, fattened by an all-you-can-eat buffet of dollar-denominated debt.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

You know that the oil markets have truly gone to the dogs when they are suddenly riskier than one of the world’s most volatile commodities: bitcoin.  

Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are synonymous with extreme bouts of volatility. However, it’s crude oil that is now earning that dubious distinction after exhibiting price swings wilder than even the leading cryptocurrency.

On February 10, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil’s one-month realized, or historical, price volatility stood at 105.3%. In contrast, bitcoin's historical volatility clocked in at 42.3%, its lowest reading since September, according to Skew Markets.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

A Digital “Fedcoin” May Be Coming… And It Would Be Terrifying / Currencies / BlockChain

By: MoneyMetals

Cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain technology that allows for de-centralized peer-to-peer transactions to take place outside the government-controlled banking system.

Backers of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin tout their privacy advantages and resistance to inflation due to their strictly limited quantities.

But what if this free-market innovation were co-opted to achieve opposite ends – centralized tracking of every transaction with no possibility of escaping digital devaluations?

That’s what some central bankers are ultimately aiming for by replacing paper cash with their own digitized, monopolized currencies.