Tuesday, February 07, 2023
SILVER CRACKUP BOOM! Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last look at the prospects for SIlver of early May 2022 warned to expect the inflationary crack up boom to eventually make it's way to the precious metals complex - The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential
Silver is at the opportune level of $22 for long-term accumulation that first targets the top of the range at $28 and then on a breakout higher to ultimately target the previous all time high of $50.
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Monday, February 06, 2023
QUALCOM QCOM Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QUALCOM - $131, EGF -13%, EGF12M -12%. PE 10.5
And last but not least is Qualcom - Qualcom has a finger in so many pies, will power META's Quest 3 headsets and beyond and for all that it trades on multiple of just 10.5, bouncing off a low of $107. EGF's are negative so I don't expect positive earnings, though in the plus side pays a 2.5% dividend. Qualcom is comparable to AMD though at near half the valuation. The stock just cleared resistance which means it could be propelled higher to $150, a rally that I would embrace to trim on. I am 112% invested and don't fret about it's long-term prospects, it will come good in the long-run regardless of any gyrations over the coming months, a good stock to accumulate on the dips.
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Monday, February 06, 2023
AMAZON AMZN Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMAZON - $97.5, EGF -61%, EGF12M -65%, PE 51
Another FAANG stock that retail investors obsess over. The problem with Amazon is that it has never been cheap! That has always been at risk of a valuation reset hence it's recent dissent into the pit of investing hell for all those who failed to read the writing only recently bottoming out at $81. If you look at the charts then you will see that Amazon is to date the only one that has become MORE EXPENSIVE as the stock price has fallen! This is a function of PRINTING SHARES coupled with Amazon being Bezos' personal piggy bank to extract funds from for his boyz toyz. The stock price has bounced to resistance so I don't see much upside. Amazon is definitely not one stock to get carried away with accumulating, I am not seeing a way for this stock to get anywhere near it's all time highs for many years!
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Monday, February 06, 2023
Apple APPL Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
APPLE - 141 EGF 5%, ,EGF12M 6%. PE 23.1
The Apple stock is weak, targeting the bottom of it's current range at $120, which if breached would then target around $106. However as the graph illustrates that whilst Apple is not cheap at X23.1, the fact that Apple is engaged in huge buy backs as illustrated by Share dilution at 80% shows that the stock gets cheaper over time even if the stock price goes nowhere, and hence acts as support under the stock price. Apple has positive EGF's courtesy of the buy backs so the stock price whilst weak is unlikely to experience a waterfall moment, instead most probable is that the stock price will continue to trade within a range for some time. I am currently 25% invested and will continue to accumulate Apple on fresh lows, i.e. sub $120, and maybe some light buying sub $128. The bottom line is that if there is one stock that could trade at NEW bear market lows then that stock is Apple.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
GOOGLE Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GOOGLE - $101, EGF -10%, EGF12M -4%. PE 20.
Google declares WAR on Microsoft GPT as founders Larry and Sergey return to lead more than 20 AI projects some of which you will have heard of, many that will be revealed over the coming months. The problem with Google is that the current CEO is a bit of a *****, a manager rather than a visionary, not aggressive enough, not when one looks at Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, hence the founders have come back to get Google back on track to turn it into the ruthless Sky net that we all love, to crush the competition so as to ensure that Google remains the primary AI company on the planet. The bottom line is that Google already has everything to out compete GPT and anything else Microsoft is cooking in attempts to out search Google Search.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
META Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
META - $143, EGF -28%, EGF12M -20%. PE 13.7
META is crawling it's way out of the pit of investing HELL after having collapsed to an unimaginably low price of just $89! A collapse that prompted crazy talk amongst the weak hands if they should SELL to buy something else, that is what capitulation looks like! At the start of 2022 the lowest I could imagine META trading to was $140, well it BLEW through that and only now has recovered to be perched just above $140. The investing herd clearly HATE the metaverse even though it IS the FUTURE! With the next big step being the release of Quest 3 later this year. Meta awaits it's killer app's which will be centered around running simulations of the real world as I covered recently.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Stocks Broke Higher, Will S&P 500 Go to 4,200? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday, as it broke above the 4,100 level and some previous local highs following the FOMC interest rate decision announcement. Recently the broad stock market’s gauge was extending its bounce from January 19 local low of 3,885.54.Stocks will likely open 0.7% higher this morning after quarterly earnings, economic data releases. So the market will extend an uptrend, and the S&P 500 may get closer to the important 4,200 level. It went the highest since late August of 2022 yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Gold and Inflation: Here's a Market Myth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
"If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then..."Back in the days of the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold could buy a Roman a well-made toga, belt and finely crafted sandals.
In modern day Rome, lo and behold, a businessman can become sharply dressed via the value of that same ounce of gold.
So, yes, gold has maintained its store of value over the centuries.
However, in the relative short term -- which can last years -- gold may not be the inflation hedge that gold bugs believe it to be.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Fed Postures as States Grow Alarmed at Currency Debasement / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
By Mike Gleason: As the Federal Reserve winds down its rate hiking campaign, precious metals bulls are anticipating a favorable environment for gains ahead.
On Wednesday, Fed policymakers raised their benchmark rate by just a quarter point. Chairman Jerome Powell also delivered remarks widely interpreted by markets as dovish. He suggested the Fed was close to declaring victory over inflation.
Powell also claimed that disinflation is now taking hold. After getting his inflation forecast wrong for two years by insisting it would be “transitory,” he is now trying to take credit for predicting the supposed trend of disinflation.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
NHS GP's Forcing Patients to go Private - UK Healthcare Crisis 2023 - Delisting, Deducted / Politics / NHS
By: N_Walayat
Virtually every patient knows how difficult is is to get an appointment with their GP as patients as they tend to get kit by the brick wall that are the reception staff whose primary function is to STOP patients from getting an appointment unless they try several times. However not everyone is going to phone day after day requesting to be seen by their GP with many, especially men giving up. And so guess what happens next? The patient gets a letter from the same said reception staff informing them that they are being deleted, no deducted from the practice list because the patient has not seen their GP for the last few years. Seriously you cannot make this shit up! Prevented from seeing one's GP, where to be frank the 60 second consultations did not amount to much anyway, and then the patient giving up is informed they are being 'deducted' from the practice list because they have not seen their GP over the past couple of years. The NHS is a FAKE health service, where patients have no choice but to either go private or rely on Google for diagnoses and self treatment.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
AMD Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMD - $76.5, EGF -29%%, EGF12M -8%. PE 20.3
AMD continues to crush Intel in terms of gaining market share by means of utilising TSMC technology against which a stagnating Intel could not compete that had propelled the stock to an eye watering high of $160 only to result in an even more spectacular collapse to $55! In fact when the stock was trading at it's low I posted - "The bottom line is buying AMD today at $55 is akin to buying AMD at it's cheapest valuation EVER! Which is why I am 154% invested!" Today I am still invested to the rafters in AMD at 150%. The stock price has recovered to $76, that is a near 50% advance off it's low that could run to heavy resistance at $100. However EGF's are strongly negative. which means AMD is going to find it tough going at over $80, every dollar gained will be a battle until earnings start to grow once more, so my strategy is to trim north of $80 with a view to accumulating below $70. So for AMD earnings are definitely looking like BUY the rumour and SELL the news.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
KLAC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
KLAC - $414 EGF 20%, EGF12M -9%, PE 17.5
KLA is on of my favourite higher risk semi stocks that trades on X17.5 on a market cap of $59bn about half that of AMD so not exactly a small cap high risk stock. What sticks out is it's relentless earnings growth as the below chart illustrates. The great bear market gave us two great sub $300 opps to accumulate in a stock that today at $414 carry's a lower valuation then when it was trading at $200 barely 2 years ago! If any of the semi stocks on my list is going to blast off to new all time highs then it is going to be KLA! I trimmed on the rally which brings my exposure down to 75% so I am eager to accumulate on the stocks next dip below $400 in advance NEW ALL TIME HIGHS. EGF of 20% strongly suggests to expect KLA to beat earnings.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.
Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:
(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Here's a Strong Indication That the Stocks Bear Market Has Legs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This is what investors look for at or near a stock market low
Elliott Wave International's analysts have been observing financial markets for decades. They monitor dozens of stock market indicators, in addition to Elliott wave patterns.
No single indicator can tell the whole story of what's going on with the market, but sometimes, a single observation can carry a lot of weight.
One current observation is that many investors are still looking for reasons to be bullish, even though stocks have been in a downtrend for more than a year. In other words, they think the bear market is over.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
6 Trends to Watch in the CBD Market / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The CBD market is growing rapidly, making it challenging to stay on top of the latest trends. With consumer demand on the rise and more products than ever hitting shelves, it's essential to know what changes and innovations are happening in this exciting industry. In this post, we'll dive into key trends that entrepreneurs, retailers, and customers need to be aware of when navigating the world of CBD. From product diversification to new global regulations, these trends will provide insight into an evolving landscape, allowing you to capitalize on opportunities and make informed decisions about your journey into cannabinoids.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Intel INTC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / INTEL
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Intel - $30.3 EGF -44%, EGF12M -34%, PE 10.7
If one just looked at the PE then Intel would look cheap, but it's EGF's are horrific which is a function of placing huge bets on new Fab's that will take several years to be built and only then will we know if the bets pay off or not. In terms of Intel's battle against AMD then the spread between the two has narrowed a little but AMD still produces the better chips by some margin that only TSMC can correct for Intel. Intel remains a sleeping giant pending earnings growth, until then the best one can hope for is that it holds the current range in attempts to build a base to recover back above $40. The bottom line is that EGF of -44% and -34% are strongly pointing to another bad earnings report on the upside everyone is now conditioned to expect bad earnings from Intel so the bad news is already baked in which means it would only take a glimmer of hope to fuel a rally in this sleeping tech giant.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Lam Researtch LRCX Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LRCX - $491, EGF 16%, EGF12M -13%, PE 13.9
I have to admit to having a soft spot for Lam Research which is why I am 131% invested even after trimming, trades on just X13.9, with a positive EGF of 16%, whilst earnings will contract during 2023 hence 12M EGF of -13%. However forward EGF is more guesstimate so less important than actual EGF which is strongly bullish for the stock price that has soared off it's $300 low, well done to all those who bought any of LRCX near it's low because it's not going to see those levels again anytime soon at best could dip to just below $400 below which lies heavy support, as a prelude to an eventual breakout higher to above $500 that would propel the stock towards it's all time high of $730. The bottom line is that Lam is heading for an earnings beat.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
IBM Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBM - $142 EGF 22%, EGF12M 6%, PE 16
IBM the sleeping giant was one of the best performing stocks of 2022 and with very strong EGF's has the potential to blast off out of it's multi-year trading range towards $200 a share during 2023! A fair PE of 16 coupled with high EGF's suggest IBM really could surprise all who had written it off as a dead dividend stock, not with EGF scores of +22% and +6%! So whilst the stock price says SELL the dinosaur trading at the top of it's trading range, the fundamentals of the company say higher prices, especially if one understands what's going on under the hood in terms of Quantum Computing, AI and a library of tens of thousands of patents then the picture of IBM of the past that most hold in their mind is not the same as the IBM of today. The bottom line is that IBM is primed for a positive earnings surprise!
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Monday, January 30, 2023
ASML Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ASML - $676, EGF 7%, EGF12M 6%%, PE 40
They aren't many stocks that can get away with trading on a PE of 40 but ASMAL can, why because they are a literal monopoly that no one else can replicate, produce the EUV machines that the likes of TSMC and Intel use to make the chips. First comes industry demand for the machines that make the chips then retail demand for the chips. The EGF's speak volume for why this stock trades at a hefty premium. ASML:is on a run towards new all time highs during 2023. The bottom line is that ASML will deliver an earnings BEAT.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Tesla TSLA Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tesla
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TESLA - $143, EGF 16%, EGF12M 362%, PE 39
Tesla's PE ratio collapsed along with it's stock price to a low of $100 a share! And as expected has rebounded strongly to now well above $130 and should continue trending higher to north of $160, to eventually attempt to break back above $200 this year, but the trend will be volatile i.e. expect huge gap moves. In terms of earnings the EGF's remain strongly positive so Tesla regardless of MSM noise should continue to post positive earnings growth signs for which can be seen in the reopening of China which thus feeds the stock prices trend higher. The valuations has reset to X39 and should continue to moderate during 2023 which suggests to expect earnings to continue to grow all year. After some trimming I am currently 130% invested and I aim to continue to lighten towards being about 115% invested in this volatile AI tech giant.
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