Thursday, January 19, 2023

Gold Price Is Up $300 Since November – So What?! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD HEADLINES – UP $300

Advisors and marketers are ecstatic:…

“Nothing will be able to stop gold when it breaks to a new all-time high”  or “On the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5000”  are two examples of recent exclamations about prospects for higher gold prices. The euphoria can be contagious.

I’m sure that makes gold bulls feel optimistic. After all, they have been passengers on an amusement ride that wasn’t what they expected. After being strapped in for a rocket launch, they found themselves on a roller coaster that was in the midst of a downward descent.

Thursday, January 19, 2023

Why Oil Prices Fell in the Face of "Supply Shock" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Looking back on 2022, one of the biggest fears about oil was that prices would skyrocket even more than they did due to a disruption in supply from Russia.

Of course, Russia has been a major world supplier of oil, but after Russia invaded Ukraine, many global financial institutions refused to back transactions involving Russian oil.

Thursday, January 19, 2023

Stock Market Changing Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis.

The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions -  no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results).That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics!

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Stocks Analysis Bonanza Trend Forecasts - GOOG, QCOM, ASML.... / Companies / Investing 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Analysis of 10 stocks as requested by Patrons to see where they stand in terms of trend and future prospects as many are still trading at deep discounts to their highs. Plus a bonus 11th stock, plus a deep look and trend forecast for the Bitcoin price for 2023 made right at the peak of the crisis of confidence in the crypto markets following the SCAM that is FTX and SBernieF.

First briefly, the S&P spent the last 10 days consolidating it's recent advance taking the S&P down to a low of 3900 as it chopped away at bullish positions and accumulated bearish positions which as I voiced in the comments was sowing the seeds for a break above 4000 to target 4100 which happened Tuesday, Though despite seasonal expectations for a santa rally, this rally is HATED by most for one only needs to go over to twitter to see why where tweeters correctly point out there is a weight of both technical and fundamental evidence against the rally such recession blah blah blah, hawkish Fed blah blah blah, and even if the market does go a little higher there is the impending doom of the 200 day moving average blah blah blah. All of this is PERFECT for the rally to fire it's BOOSTER rockets and propel this market well beyond anyone's expectations as I wrote in my last analysis that I would not be surprise if when the dust settles the S&P is trading north of 4300!

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

State of the Global Stock and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: EWI

Hi,

FACT: Most mainstream market pundits were BULLISH THE WORLD at the start of 2022.

FACT: CASH outperformed stocks AND bonds AND cryptos AND gold AND real estate in 2022.

Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Magnite - MGNI Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Investing 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Monday, January 16, 2023

Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

Monday, January 16, 2023

Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Gary_Tanashian

Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say about that on November 10th:

Q4-Q1 plan engages

For the purposes of this week’s public article, we’ll leave aside the mad science (macro indicators) that NFTRH subscribers were subjected to in support of the bull thesis along the way and also leave aside the individual equities and portfolio strategy shaped by the indicators. But the macro stuff is going to be ever more important going forward. These indicators are, shall we say, absolutely fascinating in their guidance for the balance of 2023.

Here we simplify and just look at two broad market leaders. Copper and gold, copper miners and gold miners. While I am bullish on gold and by extension very bullish on the gold miners, which will fundamentally leverage the 2023 macro, to this point the Q1, 2023 rally is as expected and it literally includes the world.

Sunday, January 15, 2023

Roblox - RBLX Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Gaming

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Sunday, January 15, 2023

Stock Market Q1 and Q2 Pull Back Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Donald_W_Dony

This report is our fifth article since September about the maturing bull market and the multiple road signs that are developing.

One of the signs of a maturing economy is the rise in inflation. As the economy continues to expand, there is ongoing pressure for goods and services. Employment is usually at a record high and consumer spending continues to rise (as they both are now).

Saturday, January 14, 2023

Western Digital - WDC Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Saturday, January 14, 2023

Tesla - TSLA Discounting the Future - Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Auto Sector

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Saturday, January 14, 2023

Gold Buying Only Starting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has powered higher smartly over the past couple months, achieving big gains.  But this gold buying is only starting, implying this young upleg still has a long way to run yet.  Speculators’ gold-futures buying remains modest, while much-larger identifiable investment buying hasn’t even begun.  Traders will have to increasingly chase gold’s upside momentum to restore normal portfolio allocations, really amplifying its gains.

Gold has been on a tear lately, blasting higher to major technical breakouts.  Between late September to midweek, the yellow metal surged up 15.7% in 3.5 months!  Nearly all those big gains accrued since early November alone, when gold carved a deep double-bottom.  During this young upleg’s rapid ascent, gold shattered its downtrend resistance and 200-day moving average.  Now it is flashing a potent buy signal.

A powerful Golden Cross is occurring in gold, with its 50dma crossing back above its 200dma from below!  This is one of the most-effective and most-bullish indicators in all of technical analysis, arguing this young gold upleg is only getting started.  More importantly, gold’s supply-and-demand fundamentals align with and corroborate this rosy outlook.  Impressively the great majority of usual gold-upleg-driving buying remains!

Thursday, January 12, 2023

Baidu - BIDU China Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / China Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Alibaba - BABA 9988 Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / China Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

The Perfect Storm For Stock Market Investors To Lose Big In 2023 Is Upon Us, Unless… / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last week I rang the bell telling investors and traders to wake up and smell the hot coffee because 2023 is going to be a life-changing year, and likely, not for the better.

The 30,000-foot view of where we are in the stock market cycle is shown on my gauge.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Canadian Military Unprepared for Russia Arctic WAR / Politics / Canada

By: Richard_Mills

“The world is getting more dangerous every day and we need to be ready for it,” General Wayne Eyre, Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff told a House of Commons committee in October.

Canada’s top soldier was, of course, referring to the war in Ukraine, which has caused a re-think among NATO about the vulnerability of member countries, especially those bordering Russia.

There’s also the ongoing tensions between the Chinese and US navies over the South China Sea; a possible invasion of Taiwan, a United States ally that China considers a renegade Chinese province which must be re-united with the Motherland; an increasingly belligerent Iran, which has still not taken responsibility for shooting down a Ukrainian airliner three years ago, killing all 176 on board including 138 with ties to Canada; Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and its denial of basic human rights; and Arctic sovereignty in the era of disappearing polar ice — a matter of pressing concern to Canada, one of eight Arctic nations.

Gen. Eyre told the committee the West was “already at war with China and Russia” and that the two global powers were out to remake the world in their own image.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Stock Market Dialing Back Fears / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.

Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!

Monday, January 09, 2023

Tencent - TCHEY Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / China Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Monday, January 09, 2023

Gold’s Nasty Divorce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold’s nasty divorce from the U.S. dollar was finalized in August 1971 when President Richard Nixon suspended any further convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold by non-U.S. citizens. That action removed any remaining links between the dollar and gold.

Without convertibility, any official price for gold became meaningless. At that time, the official U.S. dollar price of gold was raised from $40.00 oz to $42.50; but nobody paid much attention.

The U.S. dollar price of gold began a decade-long march that saw a twenty-fold increase culminating in an intra-day high of $843 oz. in January 1980. Gold had finally broken free of its tether.