Saturday, December 24, 2022

What type of trader or investor are you? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Trading and investing are much more complex and challenging than most people think. While countless books have been written about how to trade and invest, most skip over what I consider to be the foundation and most important area – You!

The Brutal Truth

The financial markets are driven by fear and greed. Most individuals find this costly as they get sucked into large news-driven moves in the market that often quickly reverse direction. Or they fall in love with a stock or commodity and decide they can’t sell even when it’s pulling their entire account balance down, causing serious financial harm.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Why the Fed Intertest Rates Pivot will Happen Faster than People Think / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

Most market participants see the Fed’s tightening policy as similar to what Paul Volcker’s Fed did in the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation necessitated a cycle of rate hikes that brought the federal funds rate to 20%. Volcker succeeded in taming inflation but the price was the 1982 recession, considered one of the longest and worst in economic history.

There is one crucial difference between 1982 and 2022, and that is the debt. According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three times higher, at 120%.

This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal government must pay on its debt.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Santa's Grotto UK Cost of Living Crisis Christmas 2022 - 60% INFLATION! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Eliza_Walayat

Nurses, postmen, railwaymen and many others are striking for higher pay due to the raging cost of living crisis as workers pay do not match the prices in the shop, FAKE inflation indices of 10% when real inflation is 20%! Even Santa has hiked his Grotto price by 60%! Making Christmas that bit more painful for many families - BAD SANTA!

Friday, December 23, 2022

TESLA MARGIN CALL PANIC - Margin Debt Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over leveraged investors in Tesla are learning a painful lesson right now as they are getting kicked out of their positions right at the bottom!

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.

Friday, December 23, 2022

Will Tesla Die Next? / Companies / Self Driving Cars

By: Submissions

Elon releases the “Twitter Files”… TSLA is a buy below $200… Our EV play in Disruption Investor hits an all-time high...

1. Elon Musk dropped a bombshell on the internet earlier this month by announcing the release of the so-called “Twitter files.”

Musk, who recently bought Twitter and took it private, tapped independent journalist Matt Taibbi to share the dirty details.

Friday, December 23, 2022

NFT Insanity: No One Should Be This Stupid! / Currencies / NFTs

By: MoneyMetals

Do you remember a man named Vignesh Sundaresan? You don't? Here's a clue. Maybe you remember him from his moniker "MetaKovan."

Still lost?

Vignesh Sundaresan is a co-founder of bitcoin ATM provider Bitaccess. But he's most famous as the "crypto whale" who bought digital art in the from of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) at Christie's auction for $69.3 million.

Friday, December 23, 2022

The Breakout That’s REALLY Important for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Since the gold market now shows parallels to 2008 and 2013, what can we expect if the correction has just ended?

The USDX's Breakout

The changes that we saw on the charts yesterday were not enough to change anything that I described yesterday, so those comments remain up-to-date. Also, what I covered during yesterday’s live event (I combined the live market analysis with the presentation about the top 3 gold trading techniques – you can see the recording here) remains up-to-date at the moment of writing these words.

Friday, December 23, 2022

Central Banks Wary of U.S. Are Loading Up on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got some superficially good news on the economy this week. But it turned out to be bad news for markets.

Although they’ve bounced back a little today, equities and precious metals markets sold off on Thursday following government data showing that the economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter. GDP was revised upward to a 3.2% annual pace from July through September.

Of course, a lot has happened since then, including additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It will be well into next year before the full impact of higher borrowing costs get reflected in the economy.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

CHANGE the Way You Think About Profit and Loss / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

From the comments section many patrons appear eager to trim holdings. However, this is a dangerous game and mindset to have one of selling on a few percent gain on fears that that smaller profit will evaporate into a loss.

Think about it?

If you follow this investing mindset what kind of portfolio will you end up with?

You will have a portfolio where you have sold all of your winners and are only left holding losers!

This is probably down to the way humans are hardwired to avoid pain, i.e. eat the food now rather than it be stolen or lost in the future.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

The Definitive Guide to FTX’s Crypto Collapse / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Everything you need to know about FTX’s collapse in plain English... What it means for crypto... Is Coinbase next?... And what all crypto investors need to do right now...

Is crypto dead?

That’s the question many folks around the Thanksgiving table were asking following crypto exchange FTX’s collapse.

I’ve been following the fallout from FTX’s collapse closely in my premium RiskHedge Venture service. But this analysis is too important to only share with a fraction of our readers. So today, let’s look at what really caused FTX’s downfall… what it means for crypto prices… and how to position yourself for the rebound.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

TESCO Budget 6foot Artificial Christmas TREE, Any Good? - How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

Is TESCO Budget 6foot Christmas tree any Good? Lets find out as we try to beat the cost of living INFLATION CRISIS by grabbing one at our local Tesco store at a club card discount, how much did it cost £15 discounted from £25. Lets see if it looks as good as picture on the box, and how hard is to setup.

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly this video is an excerpt of my mega-analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023, that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a patron from supporting my work for just 4 bucks for month, lock it in now as it is set to rise to 5 bucks per month in the new year.

Monday, December 19, 2022

AI Tech Stocks TRAVELLING THROUGH TIME AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Many analysts refer to what happened decades ago to try and imply to expect similar today, what is it that they are blind to that ensures the past is not a good measure of the future? What they miss is the exponential nature of the trend we are upon! We are RACING THROUGH TIME AT AN ACCLERATING PACE! What not so long ago took decades now has been compressed into years! What not so long ago took years now takes months! That is the exponential AI mega-trend in a nutshell and it is ACCELERATING! Go back a thousand years and nothing much change for most folks for centuries! Go back 100 years and the changes would be measured in terms of decades! Go back 50 years and changes were measured in years! Today the pace of change is in the months! And yes it will become in the weeks! So how are we to capitalise on this exponential trend? By investing in the stocks that are making the trend become manifest, holding on with both hands as they whip through time at an exponential rate, clinging on as we watch those who SELL fall behind waiting for a dip to get back on board.

Monday, December 19, 2022

TESCO Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2022 - How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

Bargain Christmas last minute shopping at TESCO, can we get a 6 foot tree for half price? Find out as with cost of living crisis belts tight here we show how you can get your christmas decorations shop done for Under £20! All thanks to likes of TESCO.

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Stocks and the US Presidential Election Cycle  / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 analysis -

So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!

So far so good, what next? We'll for 8 straight decades stock market indices such as the Dow and S&P have headed higher after the ,mid-terms with the average gain being 15%.

Sunday, December 18, 2022

2023: Preparing for tectonic shifts in the world economy  / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Colossal structural shifts are taking place in the global economy, as evidenced by the huge challenges during the ongoing year. In 2023, China seeks recovery, but the West – the US, the Eurozone and the UK, and Japan - will cope with recession and the specter of a debt crisis.

In a recent Foreign Affairs commentary, Mohamed A. El-Erian warned that we are not facing just extraordinarily challenging business-cycle fluctuations, but structural and secular long-term pressures. As a result, “the global economy may never be the same.”

In reality, the “old normal” has been history since 2008 and the consequent debt crises. During the past decade, world economy has been driven by geopolitical agendas, not by economic priorities. And the results have been predictable: catastrophic.

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Best Student Budget Laptop 2023 - AMD OLED 5600H, 5800H REAL Customer Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

After much research weighing up the pros and cons, specs and price we finally settled on the ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED as the best budget Student laptop a 512gb SSD, 16gb Ram, Ryzen laptop comes in two variations, the 5600H or the 5800H. Wait there's more! The SCREEN is truly fantastic! OLED 2.8k! WOW on a budget laptop that currently costs £515 for the 5600h (Amazon link) or less than £600 for the 5800h, for those who want the 2 extra cores, and a slightly more powerful IGPU.

Find out as we setup and use the laptop for the first time of why this could be the budget laptop for 2023, given the price drops in anticipation of Ryzen 7000 mobile CPUs.. Real review after extensive reseach.

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings Analysis / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not satisfied with seasonal swings I've continued last years near term years seasonal analysis by comparing the year on year change which suggests that the market IS at BOTTOM and thus due a rally into Mid October for a higher low retest into early November, though October should end higher than where it began, where an early November low sets the scene for a powerful rally into at at least Christmas, 2023 bull into September, down into October start.

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Michael_Pento

The cornerstones in my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model are changes made to fiscal and monetary policies. Those are the two most determinant factors in any fiat-currency and debt-based monetary system.

Monetary policies have been ratcheting up tightly since March of this year when the Fed began to move away from its zero-interest rate policy; and Quantitative Tightening ramped up to $95 billion per month in September. Rate hikes will continue throughout the first quarter of next year, just as the extreme pace of balance sheet reduction continues to roll on. The rapid increase in the Fed Funds Rate has depressed the demand for new loans. It has also led to the net percentage of banks tightening lending standards to soar from -32.4% in Q3 of 2021, to a positive 39.1% in Q4 of this year. In a debt-based monetary system, money is created when new loans are produced. To this point, what is happening now is that the amount of fed credit (base money supply) is being destroyed at a record pace, just as banks are slamming the door shut on new loans due to the eroding economy. Hence, the M2 money supply has crashed from a humongous growth rate of 26.7% in February of 2021, to a year-over-year pace that is now shrinking.

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Stock Market Another Fail Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the December 06, 2022, Market Minute titled "Recap of key market structure going into Q1" The benchmark equity index (S&P 500) has made another failed attempt to rise. In mid-December, the index reached the downward sloping trend at 4070 at immediately retreated.

This is the fourth failed attempt to cross the line.