Thursday, August 04, 2022
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raymond_Matison
According to Webster’s dictionary, the definition of prognosis is a forecast, or a prediction of a probable course of a disease in an individual, and the chances of recovery. In this article, we apply this definition of prognosis to our inanimate, yet seemingly “living and breathing” economy, and project its chances of recovery.
The world is filled with intelligent and highly experienced economists, and thousands of financial market observers who can give us a lucid and convincing interpretation of our economy and health of our financial markets. As a result, you can find widely recognized professionals who will diagnose and predict the direction of our economy and financial health as to support our own personally biased view of reality – regardless of what that may be. But independent of our own personally preferred views, what is the most probable reality we are likely to experience? What is the real economic and financial prognosis?
Government agencies and media are increasingly filled with unjustifiably adjusted and manipulated economic data, directed and misdirected propaganda, and outright lies, such that it is nearly impossible to judge the real strength or direction of the economy and the health of our financial markets. Since small and developing nations are quickly learning these “tricks of the trade”, international media and government agencies are universally now also dispensing politically favorable rhetoric rather than truth. So what measures can we review to accurately evaluate the health of our economy?
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Wednesday, August 03, 2022
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US Housing market variables are in a state of flux for we have the consequences of Quantitative Tightening with the Fed having started to sell $15 billion of Mortgage Backed securities per month, US teetering on the brink of recession given that Q1 saw -1.4% with Q2 also expected to be weak, a coin flip between +0.2 and -0.2 or worse and thus hey presto the RECESSION has ARRIVED! Brewing Financial Crisis 2.0 that I I flagged some 10 months ago where the reverse repo market of $1 trillion has now doubled to $2 trillion which implies increasing counter party risk where we wont know what the banking crime syndicate has exactly been upto in the housing market until banks start failing. Interest rate hikes of 0.75% when the Fed Chairman said 0.75% was off the table which means US rates are probably going to go a lot higher tham most can imagine today, consensus is 3.25% to 3.5%, reality could be north of 5%, so a lot of variables are in a state of flux which means instead of seeing clarity with more data I am seeing confusion!
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Wednesday, August 03, 2022
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
With last week’s second 75 basis-point rate hike, the Federal Reserve now claims it has achieved a “neutral” monetary policy stance. That would mean, in theory, that interest rates are neither stimulating nor restraining the economy.
"Now that we're at neutral, as the process goes on, at some point, it will be appropriate to slow down,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said.
Powell was effectively telling markets he intends to pivot away from inflation fighting.
Yet inflation, even when measured by the Fed's own preferred gauge, continues to run hot.
Wednesday, August 03, 2022
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Despite gold’s latest move higher, its outlook remains bearish. If its 2012-2013 pattern is to repeat, it means gold is now preparing for a big fall.
Patience Advised
Gold moved higher on Friday, so you might be wondering if this changed anything regarding the outlook. In short, it didn’t.
Let’s take a closer look at what happened.
Sunday, July 31, 2022
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: EWI
This suggests "a burgeoning slowdown in economic activity"
It may seem strange to bring up deflation when surveys show that inflation is the public's number one worry.
But who would have thought that inflation would become a big issue, say, just two years ago?
Right -- a relatively small percentage of people. The point is: Things can unexpectedly change -- fast.
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Sunday, July 31, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been thrashed in recent months, crushed as heavy futures selling slammed gold. That obliterated any residual sector bullishness, leaving gold stocks wildly-oversold and deeply-out-of-favor. But having weathered a rough early summer, the battered miners and their metal are trudging back into their traditional strong season. That begins with robust autumn rallies really accelerating in August.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively-steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. Starting in late summers, Asian farmers begin to reap their harvests. As they figure out how much surplus income was generated from all their hard work during the growing season, they wisely plow some of their savings into gold. Asian harvest is followed by India’s famous wedding season.
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Sunday, July 31, 2022
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Fed continues to bring the big guns, raising rates another 75 bp (0.75%) on July 27, 2022. Even though they stated the economy is softening, current Inflation and CPI data suggest otherwise. The US Fed may be forced into another 75~100 bp rate increase next month if the US economy continues to show strong CPI and Inflation trends. There is only one other time in recent history like the current market environment – 1998~2004.
The DOT COM Bubble was unique in the sense that excess capital flowed into technology/internet companies’ hand-over-fist. It seemed all you had to do was register a URL, come up with some crazy business plan, and go talk to investors/VC. It was not a crisis like the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis event. The DOT COM Bubble was a process of unwinding/consolidating excess capital away from a euphoric speculative phase in the markets.
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Friday, July 29, 2022
What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This clip from March 2009 illustrates what it's like at a market bottom, that had analysts stating at Dow 6490 that the Dow was nowhere near a bottom which was at least another 20% to 25% further below.
AT THE BOTTOM
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Friday, July 29, 2022
How to lock in a Guaranteed 9.6% return from Uncle Sam With I Bonds / Personal_Finance / Inflation
By: Submissions
By Chris ReillyDo you want to turn inflation to your advantage?
Be a financial winner while everyone else is losing to inflation?
Today, I’ll show you a little-known investment that can do exactly this for a part of your portfolio.
Best of all… it’s guaranteed by the US government.
You’ll want to act on this soon. Because inflation just keeps getting worse.
On July 13, the government released the latest numbers...
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Friday, July 29, 2022
All You Need to Know About the Increase in Building Insurance Premiums for Flats / Housing-Market / Insurance
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
If you’ve not heard about the cost of living crisis, then you must have been living under a rock. Expenses are going up while wages are going down and the consequences can be felt across the country. Whether it’s the eye-watering cost of filling up your car or the hike in the bill when you finish your food shop, rising costs are affecting everyone.
Insurance premiums are just one of the casualties.
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Friday, July 29, 2022
The Challenges on the Horizon for UK Landlords / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Climate change – it’s a phrase we’ve heard all too often in recent months, years, and decades. The UK government has begun to action aspects of its manifesto towards tackling the problem and as a result, there are stricter regulations coming into play that will begin to effect landlords across the country. With such changes in the not-too-distant future, many landlords might already start worrying about the cost. Fortunately, companies like Propp specialise in finding the best finance for any given property, especially short-term funding agreements that will assist in covering the costs incurred of getting a property to the standard it needs to be to meet upcoming laws and policies.
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Tuesday, July 26, 2022
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021
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Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Claiming and Calculating The Research and Development Tax Credit / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The Die Steuergutschrift Für Forschung Und Entwicklung was established in 1981 to encourage research and development (R&D) in the United States. This tax credit works as a dollar-for-dollar offset against a taxpayer's liability for federal income tax and, in some cases, payroll tax.
Because most states offer a credit analogous to the federal one, the total possible benefit, which includes both the federal and state credits, is often somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of qualified expenditures. Businesses operating in practically every sector of the economy reported R&D credits totaling more than an estimated $18 billion in the previous year.
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Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Stock Market Bearish Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.
Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers.
Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Social Media Tips and Writing an Effective Call to Action / Companies / Social Media
By: Steve_Barker
Worldwide, there are about 4.14 billion social media users! While that large number might seem exciting, various companies are fighting for their attention.
Many people will scroll on by ads, marketing posts, and other promotional activities if they're not attention-grabbing. But how can you stand out from the crowd? Read this guide on how to write a call to action on social media, plus tips to succeed!
Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Has Rishi Sunak Succeeded in Buying His Way Into No 10 - Fake Tory Leadership Contest / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
It looks increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak's Billionaire father in law has managed to buy his son in law the Keys to No 10. Whilst we won't know the true cost of all of the behind the scenes shenanigans, it probably runs in the tens of millions. For India like most developing nations is politically corrupt where the Rich dictate who gets info office and so will give birth to the Sunak Premiership as his battle with Liz Truss is pure smoke and mirrors exercise to convince the electorate that there actually is a leaderships contest when it has all already been bought and paid for by daddy in law.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,
Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Gold Will Come Out Stronger from the Economic Hurricane / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recession calls are getting louder. If history is any guide, the bust is coming. Good news for gold!
An economic hurricane is coming. Brace yourselves! This is at least what Jamie Dimon suggested last month. To be precise, he said: “Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way. We just don’t know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy.” When JP Morgan Chase’s CEO is painting such a gloomy picture, you know that something serious is going to happen!
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Do Fed Rate Decisions Affect The Price Patterns For Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders are focused on Gold as price has contracted over the past 5+ weeks, and the $1700 level is being retested. This prompted my team and I to do some research related to the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate increases and how Gold has previously reacted to rising and falling interest rates.
Exploring Price Patterns Between Gold and Fed Rate Decisions
I knew from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 event that Gold initially moves downward as extreme selling pressures drive almost all assets lower. Yet, in both cases, Gold quickly rebounded and began to move higher within 5+ weeks after setting up a bottom.
I started my research by outlining “Normal Fed Activity” and “Extended QE Fed Activity” to see if I could identify any difference in how Gold reacted to fear and uncertainty in these phases. My thinking was that Gold would react more muted in a price range in Normal Fed Activity phases because crisis events and economic uncertainty are more muted overall. When the Fed enters an expansive QE phase, this activity is associated with a US/Global economy that requires extraordinary measures to prompt expected normal capital functions.
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Expert Says the Stock Market Tide Has Gone Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Expert Michael Ballanger reviews the current market cycle, Elon Musk's impact on the stock market, and reveals the stock he says has a positive outlook amidst the chaotic backdrop of summer 2022.
As a sexagenarian market philosopher soon to become a septuagenarian market philosopher, I am finding myself somewhat embarrassed when younger people (other than family) ask me my opinion on something. I usually try to reply to their inquiry in the manner in which my father (RCAF WWII navigator William Roland Ballanger) used to advise me in the very early days of my hockey career when some youngster would come up for an autograph or a simple “Hi Mike” to which I would always stop, bend down to his height, extend my hand, and say, “Hello to you, and what would your name be?” at which point he (or she) would look up to their parent(s) for guidance and then (almost always) tell me.
At this point in the encounter, I would offer the beaming youngster my hand and as we shook, I would say, “It is a great pleasure to meet you, and thank you for saying hello.”
That behavior came from RCAF Navigator W.R. Ballanger who recounted the story from his life that dwelled in the realm of geopolitical nonsense in the days after the Nazi's threw a historically successful and prosperous German society into total ruin and starvation.
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