Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Crude Oil: Why You Should Look Beyond Supply / Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

The primary regulator of the rises and falls in oil's prices is market psychology

As I write on the morning of Friday, Nov. 18, crude oil is on track for its second weekly decline.

The financial media usually finds "reasons" for a market's price action that are rooted in "market fundamentals," and this decline in oil's price was no exception.

On Thurs., Nov. 17, a CNBC headline noted:

Oil falls on easing geopolitical tension, China demand outlook

The gist of the story was that a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China would contribute to a lower demand for crude oil in the world's second largest economy; hence, the falling prices.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP, what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!

The facts are the US had a recession in 2022 that everyone is ignoring!

The US posted it's 2nd negative GDP of -0.6%, that's -2.4% year to date, what does that mean for stocks? Corporate profits Dividend by GDP graph clearly shows that we are still near the cycle peak, i.e .unlike Q4 2019 BEFORE the pandemic crash, earnings have not contracted anywhere near to signal an earnings bottom. So this metric suggests new highs in the indices are NOT likely anytime soon, especially given that GDP is FALLING. However against this we have the MAGIC of INFLATION that should support nominal stock prices as Inflation INFLATES GDP and corporate profits, case in point being the 1970's where corporate profits ROSE albeit form a 1970 trough, but the indices ended the decade little changed.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Why Silver Price 'Should Resume Upwards Path / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Clive_Maund

Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month, 1-year, and 5-year charts to tell you where he believes the future is headed for this precious metal.

When the dollar broke down over a week ago, silver joined gold in breaking higher, as we can see on its 4-month chart below, and now we are seeing a normal post-breakout reaction as the dollar rallies somewhat to relieve the extreme condition that resulted from its steep lunge.

Once the dollar’s relief rally is done, silver should resume the upward path.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.

We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.

Let’s dive in.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

US Bond Market and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.

In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopelessly in multi-trillions of dollars in debt and adding to it all the time? That is what a bond as an investment is, a call on the debt of, in this case, a supposedly high quality entity (the US government). No thank you.

Though I am not well liked in some corners of the gold promotion err, analysis business, I consider myself today to be a full on gold bug just as I did 20 years ago. Nothing has changed because gold does not change. It has remained a steady literal and figurative rock within the financial system for years, decades and centuries. It’s what confidence in risk assets – including bonds – is measured by.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Gold and Silver Post Breakout Reaction Provides Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Clive_Maund

With the breakdown of the U.S. dollar, expert Clive Maund reviews charts for gold, copper, and palladium to tell you where he believes the metals are headed and which he thinks you should buy.

The last update was prescient as it called for a major breakdown in the dollar and breakouts by gold and silver, all of which happened just days later. If this were 2010 or 2011, this update would have generated considerable interest and numerous emails, but today nothing — it was greeted with a yawn.

This means one of two things or a combination of the two – either American investors or others are now broke and have no money to invest. Hence no interest or sentiment towards the precious metals sector is now so negative after recent underperformance that there is no enthusiasm for it.

I believe that the explanation is largely the latter reason, in which case it is exceedingly bullish because the more negative the sentiment towards a sector, the more upside potential it has, and I saw an article or video confirming this a few days ago because it described the rally this month as a “bull trap.”

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Best Portable Power Station for UK Power Cuts! AWANFI Black Friday Bargain SALE Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

Power cuts are coming! Correction Power cuts are already happening in the UK with increasing frequency! Yes we can protect computers with UPS but most tend to run for more than a few minutes, just enough time to gracefully shut down systems and protect from current surges. What we need is a Power Station, a portable take anywhere power station that continues to let the juice flow over over an hour!

In steps AWANFI! After much research I settled on this compact 518watt. Is 518 watts enough? We'll depends on how much one is willing to pay, have to settle on what's practical and affordable, which is why I wrote off all of the cheaper options because they would not be able to power anything worth powering, might as well get a big power bank brick instead!

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Stock Market Winning the Day, Nibbling at 4040 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.

If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.

Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Best GPU to Buy Today! Nvidia in Trouble, RTX 4080 Disaster - 3070, 3080, 3090, 4090 / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: HGR

One things for sure, no one should buy an RTX 4080! Launched at a rip off price of $1400 and even more for Brit's being offered the cards for £1400 plus. So with With GPU prices coming down, but not evenly for all GPUs, it can be a confusing market, So what are the best Nvidia GPUs to buy right now is answered in our latest video.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Why INTEREST RATE HIKES Are INFLATIONARY! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Unfortunately I will have to leave this mostly for next time. But basically INTEREST RATE HIKES to bring INFLATION DOWN! Is NOT going to work because INTEREST RATES DO NOT CONTROL the RATE of INFLATION. So that which academics have built their whole careers on is BS! All I hear is Volcker raised rates that brought inflation down and so rinse and repeat, was it Interest rates that killed the Inflation of the 1970's? Are you sure your not lapping up the propaganda which is ECONOMICs perpetuated by the propaganda arms of Governments called central banks who's primary remit is to put up a smoke screen of misinformation so as to allow governments, to get away with printing money!

As I have voiced for well over a decade, Inflation is a function of governments PRINTING MONEY, of which QE is part of the equation i.e print money to monetize government debt, which despite all of the noise continues to this very day! Governments printing money on an epic scale for which the smoking gun is the Governments deficit spending, the US Federal Government is spending $1.4 trillion more than it earns in revenue that is PRINTING MONEY! For the UK it's about £120 billion,

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Are I-Bonds Predicting a drop in Inflation ? / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A patron commented - Interesting take on inflation: the US Treasury I-bonds (which one can invest $10k each year) will pay an annualized interest from November 1, 2022, through April 2023 of 6.89%, down from the 9.62% rate offered since May 2022. Probably an indicator that the inflation stats that are forthcoming will show we’ve peaked. https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Could Bitcoin’s Movements Indicate the Fall of Junior Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While comparing gold and bitcoin gives some idea of the patterns in the market, can the slide of junior miners be predicted by the same method?

Those of you who have been following my analyses for a while may be expecting me to write that it is based on the stock market's rally and thus only temporary, as miners will follow gold sooner rather than later. That’s their ultimate source of revenue (current or expected). While that’s true, right now there is another huge factor that’s likely contributing to the situation.

It's most likely the unfolding crypto-drama.

Remember when I previously commented on the link between juniors and cryptocurrencies? What I wrote back then was particularly important with regard to the less known (obscure?) ones with a shady background. In fact, some even call them “shitcoins.”

Thursday, November 24, 2022

FTX, The Rise and Fall of a Crypto Ponzi Scheme / Stock-Markets / Scams

By: MoneyMetals

By now, you have heard about the FTX exchange bankruptcy. But you may be justifiably desensitized. Desensitized because the frequency of crypto disasters is at least yearly.

This FTX crypto scandal is a next-level scandal reading like an over-the-top Hollywood film, a bizarre crypto con story ending badly.

FTX frontman Sam Bankman-Fried was in his twenties when he became a billionaire last year.

His daily routine is highly dysfunctional, and his personality is profoundly impaired. This contrasts with most con men who are charming and charismatic.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Winter Is About To Wake up the Natural Gas Price / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: The_Energy_Report

An unusually warm October has helped natural gas inventories, but gas prices don't seem to believe it. Oil has seen three days of heavy selling volume ending with a hammer candle stick Monday. Birchcliff, Callon, and Earthstone should benefit.

Gold stocks have started a new bull market. The question is, will the gold price confirm it?

The HUI index ran from a low of 180.41 on November 3, 2022, to a high of 224.88 on November 10, 2022, which is a +24.6% move. The gold stocks often lead to a move in gold, and the gold price did move from US$1631 to US$1775 in the same time frame.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

COVID Is Still KILLING! - UK High Excess Deaths / Politics / Coronavirus 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is silence in the MSM and that silence concerns the continuing high number of Excess deaths still taking place which is running at about 12% above the 5 year average, and not just in the UK but right across the world, for instance for Australia it is even higher at +17%. It's as though just like what QE did for the economy, it appears that the vaccines have done for the pandemic by kicking the covid deaths can down the road!

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Rambus_Chartology

Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.

I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

US Senate Report Concludes Lab Leak Origins of SARS-CoV-2 / Politics / Coronavirus 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Want to make sense of the U.S. midterms? Watch this... / ElectionOracle / US Politics

By: EWI

Hi,

Well, it happened again: Here in the U.S., election pollsters have egg on their face. In the midterm elections, a "red wave" -- Republicans winning by a landslide -- didn't come ashore.

What we got instead was a strong show for the status quo: a Senate hold for Democrats and a narrow House majority for Republicans.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.

A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.

As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.

However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.

Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.