Friday, November 04, 2022
Is Crude Oil Switching into Bullish Territory Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Oil prices are trading this Friday at their highest in nearly a month, benefiting from the looming tighter supply as an effect of market speculation around potential zero-Covid policy relief in China.
Available to premium subscribers only – New trading projections on Crude Oil Futures DEC22
In addition to the reduction in the OPEC+ production target of 2 million barrels per day for the month of November, the EU embargo and the planned cap on the price of Russian oil add to the pervasive tension in the market.
In addition, the G7 member countries and Australia have agreed to set a fixed cap for the price of Russian oil rather than a variable rate in the interests of clarity, while the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the European Union by prohibiting British ships and service providers from contributing to the maritime transport of Russian oil sold above the fixed price set by the G7 and Australia.
Friday, November 04, 2022
Fed Continues Tough Talk, but Gold & Silver Show Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Precious metals investors remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s latest jumbo rate hike.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced another three-quarter point bump up on interest rates. It’s the sixth straight hike by central bankers and brings the Fed funds rate up to 4%. That’s the highest it has been since 2008.
Investors fully anticipated the Fed’s latest move but hoped it would be accompanied by a dovish statement from Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Powell threw cold water on the idea of a pause or pivot at the FOMC’s next meeting. In his remarks, he sounded less like a dove and more like a grinch who was preparing to severely punish Americans for the Fed’s past mismanagement and impose more pain to financial markets as the holiday season approaches.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The yield curve has inverted which initially saw the stock market trade to a new bear market low following which entered into a powerful bull run, as has happened virtually every time that the yield curve has inverted i.e. initial stock market dips followed by a bull run that typically extends to over a year which the current price action looks set to replicate despite the recent double dip.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Are you Cut Out for Investing in Microcap Stocks? / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
By Chris Wood : I love microcaps.As a group, they generate 24.5% higher returns than bigger stocks, based off nearly 100 years of data.
They’re largely “undiscovered” by Wall Street, which means you can gain a real “information edge” 99% of the public isn’t privy to.
And unlike big stocks, you can get in on the “ground floor”... before the most explosive growth occurs.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Fed Hawkish Interest Rate Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may have done his last 75bp rate hike on November 2nd. But another 50bp hike is likely coming in December, and then the regular 25bp variety is coming in February. Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Why PayPal (PYPL) Stock is Dying and Global Payments Inc (GPN) is a Better Fintech / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is why Paypal is a dying stock and why Global Payments Inc (GPN) is a better Fintech stock to be invested in which goes far beyond the fundamentals of P/E ratios and earnings yields and EPS as Paypal is due to release it's latest earnings report later today as this video illustrates
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Tesco Cheap Budget Fireworks 2022 for Bonfire Night - Unboxing Midnight Mania box, What's Inside / Personal_Finance / Tesco
By: Anika_Walayat
It's bonfire night soon so off we went to our local Tesco's super market to get some FIREWORKS! Tesco usually have some sort of offer on i.e. to get 2 boxes at a lower cost than single boxes. There wasn't much choice though we weren't expecting much from a small counter, anyway we bagged ourselves 2 boxes of Midnight Mania for a total of £45 with each box containing 17 fireworks which was an upgrade from what we bought last year i.e. 2 boxes of Sky Fire £35, so lets open up the box and see what we got for our money!
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022
SMASHED Bond Markets Brewing Opportunity / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus script is that when stocks fall bonds go up, instead 2022 saw that consensus view blown apart as the below chart illustrates. In fact bonds have NEVER under performed stocks during a downturn, not even during the raging inflation of the 1970's!
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022
MONEY PRINTING - How an Ugly Yellowish Machine Minted Fortunes / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
By Chris Wood : Have you ever been lucky enough to own a “tipping point” stock?
They can create extreme sums of wealth in relatively short periods of time.
The greatest tipping point stock in history handed early investors a 102,400% gain in 10 years. That turns every $1,000 invested into over $1 million.
We might never see anything quite like that again...
Wednesday, November 02, 2022
🎃 Trick or Treat Halloween Challenge - How Many Pounds of Sweets Loot Can We get ? 🎃 / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
�� Halloween Trick or Treat Challenge. Who can get the most loot of sweets and chocolates trick or treating?
Let's find out just how lucrative trick and treat was this year and who won the challenge!
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Macro changing in favor of the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process
The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).
While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Gold and Silver Believed To Be Close to Major Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
On the 1-year chart for gold shown below, we can see precisely why it has been in a quite severe downtrend from its peak last March. It is because the dollar and interest rates, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, have been in strong uptrends during this period.
A very important point to note is that while gold has dropped about $400 from its March peak, in real terms, this decline is much more serious because of the robust inflation during this period.
So if the Fed does pivot soon, that is to say, it stops raising rates and starts lowering them, or other Central Banks start raising rates, thus reducing the dollar’s appeal.
It will mean a reversal to the downside in the dollar and to the upside in gold and commodities and risk-on assets generally, and as we saw on Friday 21st, even talk of a pivot is enough to generate a recovery.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Why Gold’s Losing Streak May Soon Turn Around / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The gold market enters trading for the month of November on a losing streak. Can bulls finally turn things around?
Their first test will be to defend the line of support established from the September and October lows. Although the gold market registered a seventh consecutive monthly decline in October – marking its worst string of monthly losses in 50 years – daily prices didn't actually break down to new lows for the year.
Despite another losing month, downside selling pressure appears to be fizzling out. Gold prices have been consolidating within a narrowing range over the past several weeks and have even popped above the downtrend line today (November 1).
Monday, October 31, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Connecticut Bridge Loans: A Guide to Applying for Bridge Loans / Companies / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Connecticut bridge loans is gaining more and more attention among homeowners especially those that need quick access to funds to purchase a new house. Many people are starting to investigate the bridging loan market, and to help those who are new to this market, we’ve come up with a simple guide to help them understand bridging finance.
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Americans will vote in the midterm elections next Tuesday. The latest polling suggests that a “red wave” is building, and Republicans may win the majority both in the House and the Senate. The election results will have implications for all markets – and that includes precious metals.
Mass psychology is one factor. Confidence in U.S. institutions has been in decline for several decades. However, when we see a marginal restoration of confidence, it can impact physical market demand for bullion.
Accordingly, should Republicans win big next week, red-hot bullion demand could cool off for a period of time.
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Sentiment Speaks: Amazon Killed The Stock Market On Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
It really is entertaining watching people. Whether I am sitting outside in a public area and "people-watching" with my wife, whether I watch how people react to the market in the articles on Seeking Alpha (and that includes the writers and commenters), or whether I watch how people react even within the virtual walls of my own services, people are very interesting and their emotional responses are even more so.
We had a very interesting week this past week. And, it again outlined for me that people simply cannot overcome their emotions, especially when it comes to the stock market. So many of you are following the CPI, unemployment, GDP, etc. Yet, none of that has helped you on this rally. If anything, it has made you miss this 12% rally over the last two weeks. And, when the Amazon earnings came out, many of you were sure the market would surely drop.
Yet, as the market was developing a near term topping structure on Wednesday and Thursday, my primary analysis to the members of ElliottWaveTrader was suggesting the strong potential for a pullback before we continued higher to the 3900+ region, which was my next target for the SPX.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Can the Stock Market Hold Lows Despite Spiking Yields and Dollar Panic Buying? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold. Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal. Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping. But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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