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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, August 17, 2008

How Low Will Gold Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Alex_Wallenwein

That's a silly question.

Gold doesn't go anywhere. What "goes" up or down are the dollar figures we have all been trained to attach to it - but we all know, for a fact, how illusory those are.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Gold and the Economy: Facts and Theories / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen we understand “what” is happening (the facts) then we might have a stab at “why” it is happening (the theories). In turn, this might throw some light on what we might expect to unfold in the foreseeable future.

We live in a cynical world and from a cynical perspective it is noteworthy that all I am reading with regard to the gold price is theories.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Gold Breaks Long-term Bull Market Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Merv_Burak

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell I guess this past week will be remembered for both gold and silver, with silver declining twice as fast as gold. Stocks also took a bounding but they have been taking a bounding for some time now. What next? That's really the $64 question.

GOLD: LONG TERM
Here we are with that long term P&F chart. While surfing the ‘net I came across another analyst who uses a 2 unit reversal P&F chart for gold with $15 units (very rare). This analyst drew the trend line as one would normally draw on the normal bar charts, i.e. touching the lows of major reaction points. Although I have used this method on occasion, and it is a valid method of drawing a P&F trend line, I usually prefer the 45 degree lines for a variety of reasons. However, here is how the trend lines would have looked if drawn touching the lows. Not bad, eh!

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Commodities

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Gold and Silver Crushed by Unwinding US Dollar Shorts / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat's happening with gold should be no real surprise. Although I have stated many times that gold is money and gold should do well in deflation, and we are in deflation (see The Future Is Frugality and Implications of the Slowing Global Economy for the deflation case), in the initial stages of deflation, leverage in everything is reduced by force.

There are thousands of hedge funds, pension plans, and individuals over-leveraged in a massive bet against the US dollar and US assets in general. Many themes of the past 7 years are now being unwound. And one would expect leverage to be forced out in deflation as credit simply dries up. I call this the great unwind.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 16, 2008

US Dollar Seismic Shift Hits Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA month or so ago, we told subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. Long term, the USD has big trouble on the horizon, but we mentioned the USD has 9 lives, even though the US is running terrible deficits, trade and fiscal.

 The Euro had strengthened so much since 2002, and the USD took such a hit, that gold and commodities became hot sectors that attracted lots of money for years. Right now, we are witnessing a big chunk of that speculator/investor froth coming out of gold and commodities. Oil is still relatively resistant. The perception that the USD can recover in a meaningful way is now out.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Review: Profit from the Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: David_Shvartsman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAre we nearing the end of the Oil Age?

Is the end of a cheap fossil fuel era at hand? How will we make the transition from a world dependent on hydrocarbon energy to one powered by a mix of hydrocarbons and renewable energy, and can we profit from this coming shift?

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Commodities

Friday, August 15, 2008

Gold Approaching Short-term Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The hourly pattern argues that in and around the 77.00 area, the downleg in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) from its 7/15 high "achieved" the look of completion. If that is the case, then in the hours directly ahead the GLD should reverse sharply, fill today's gap-down open at 79.20, and close above the top of the gap to signal that a very significant near-term low has been established. Beyond the gap, the GLD must hurlde and sustain 82.00 to confirm a more substantial upside reversal.

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Commodities

Friday, August 15, 2008

Crude Oil Demand Destruction Overdone? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMuch ado has been made of ‘demand destruction', an economic term that refers to declining demand for a good due to high prices. The past month or so the mainstream US press has latched onto demand destruction as a reason for the decline in oil prices much in the same way they blamed speculators for high oil prices just a few weeks earlier.

Also, when talking about demand destruction, they will refer to US numbers only; conveniently forgetting the rest of the world. The mindset here is still that the US is the top dog and the rest of the globe is irrelevant. So let's indulge them in their narrow-mindedness for a minute and look only at US consumption as presented by the Energy Information Administration.

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Commodities

Friday, August 15, 2008

Epic Gold Stocks Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe precious-metals stocks did not take kindly to gold's steep selloff this week. On Monday the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunged 6.0% at the climax of what can only be described as a crash. In this event's final 3 days, the HUI bled 13.1% of its value. In less than a month, it had plummeted 33.1% by the time the dust settled!

Although the HUI has a well-deserved reputation for extreme volatility, this selloff was still exceptional. Typically, sharp HUI declines emerge after major uplegs from high levels. But as you'll see in these charts, the HUI wasn't high technically when this heavy selling started battering it as August dawned. In fact it was already pretty beaten-up pre-crash , under both its summer support and 200-day moving average.

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Commodities

Friday, August 15, 2008

Precious Metals Bloodbath as Gold Crashes through $800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Both gold and silver gave back the previous day's gains yesterday on the COMEX. Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $808.30, down $17.20 and silver was down 58 cents to $14.23. Gold continued to fall in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $782.80/783.40 per ounce (1100 GMT).

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Commodities

Friday, August 15, 2008

Gold Collapses as Speculators Panic / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD sank yet again at the London opening on Friday, falling 2.6% to touch a nine-month low as US crude oil prices dropped 1.3% to trade below $114 per barrel.

Western European stock prices rose meantime in early trade, averaging 0.8% gains despite this week's clear signals of economic recession ahead.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2008

DIG Proshares Ultra Long Gas & Oil ETF Carving Out New Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The natural gas inventory data did not have much of an impact on the ProShares Ultra Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG), which appears to be carving out a new trading range between 84.00 and 80.50, after emerging yesterday from a lower trading range between 76.00 and 80.00. The higher range represents the next phase of the basing attempt that has been in progress for the past week. A sustained hurdle of 84.50/70 is needed to trigger additional upside potential off of the base into the 89.00-90.00 target zone. Conversely, a breach of 80.50/00 near-term support will begin to compromise the efficacy of the developing base pattern.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2008

British Gold Sovereigns -The Preserve of Collectors, Savers and Smart Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold as Essential Diversification and Financial Insurance
Gold bullion remains an essential diversification and essential financial insurance to have in all properly diversified portfolios. Besides the ever more important factors of inflation hedging and financial insurance, gold is likely to continue to outperform other asset classes and to provide significant returns to gold buyers.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Gold Bounces as Euro-zone Slumps towards Recession  / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE SPOT PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD added to Wednesday's sharp bounce early in Asia and London Thursday morning, nearing the Wall Street open almost 4.4% above the week's low at $836 per ounce.

Crude oil traded back above $116 per barrel – up more than $3 from its three-month lows of Tuesday – while base metals also rose sharply.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Gold Fell Sharply in Dollars but not in Euros and Pounds / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $825.50, up $15.80 and silver was up 37 cents to $14.81. Gold continued to rise in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $831.80/832.40 per ounce (1200 GMT).

The much anticipated bounce in gold occurred yesterday and continued overnight as the dollar weakened and oil prices firmed again.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Precious Metals Stocks on Major Buy Alert / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you take a stroll around the financial district of any big city such as London, New York or Tokyo, you will walk past countless well dressed and groomed men, in smart suits and ties with tidily coiffured hair and neatly clipped nails, and if you listen to their conversations you will observe that many of them speak softly in measured tones. The image conveyed is one of poise and professionalism. Yet beneath the veneer of civility and reasonableness there frequently lurks a seething cauldron of greed, lust - and fear, a fact which many women are instinctively aware of and which business women are able to turn to their advantage.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Crude Oil Spike Fails to Break Above Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Very interesting situation developing in nearby crude. Let's notice that the post DOE data spike propelled prices to $115.69 (so far), which hurdled the August resistance line at $114.80, benefiting our earlier ProShares Ultra-Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG) position. But it failed to hurdle the prior rally peak at $115.95 established yesterday.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Strong US Dollar Drives Gold Lower / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back all of a 1.5% rally late-morning in London on Wednesday, dropping below $815 per ounce in thin but frantic trade as the US Dollar continued to rally against pretty much everything.

Crude oil ticked back above $113 per barrel – down almost 25% from its top of early July ahead of today's much-anticipated US inventory stockpiles report – while base metals continued to slide.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Gold Oversold at Seasonal Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold finished trading in New York on Friday at $809.70, down $11.80 and silver was down 3 cents to $14.44. Gold rose in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $821.10/821.60 per ounce (1000 GMT).

Gold's recent merciless sell off continued yesterday. But, the dollar's incredible five day surge appeared to come to an end yesterday, with a sell off on Wall Street (on concerns about financials and slowing global growth) stopping it in its tracks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Gold Extremely Oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

In most recent Trading Thoughts we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery. That is, until Russia decided to crush Georgia militarily. Russian army does not move into invasion mode without some prior preparations. Someone knew what was to happen. Massive amount of money flowed, at a $1.4+ trillion annual rate, into U.S. debt in less than a week.

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