Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in a series of 5 that conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Gold Stocks Remain in Downtrend but Uranium Stocks on the Cusp of New Bull Market / Commodities / Uranium

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold stocks failed to breakout in the spring and then brokedown to multi-year lows by September. As autumn beckons, the precious metals sector at large is very oversold and could be starting a rebound. However, the fundamentals are not yet in place for a new bull market. They will be when the Fed moves to the end of this rate hike cycle. Although gold stocks and most commodity stocks are mired in downtrends, that isn’t the case for uranium stocks which appear to be on the cusp of a new bull market.

According to Trade Tech, the spot price of uranium is $27.70/lb which is a two and a half year high. The price has begun to rise after basing for several years.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We have some good news and some bad news for both: precious metals bulls and bears. Based on new developments it’s even more likely that we are just before the huge price decline in gold, silver, and mining stocks, but at the same time it also appears likely that the final bottom will take place later than we had expected, based on the previously available information.

Let’s start with additional bearish confirmations (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). In our Monday’s analysis, we compared the price performance of gold that we saw in the recent months to what happened in 2013, right before the big $200+ plunge that took place in only 2 trading days. In today’s analysis, we will extend this analogy also to other markets. But first, let’s recall the Monday’s analysis.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Silver Looks Poised To Move Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

A key difference between silver and gold prices is the fact that silver already bottomed in 1993, whereas gold bottomed only in 1999.

This means that from 1993 to 1999 silver was actually in an uptrend, while gold was still caught in a downtrend. This little known fact might not have been so important to date; however, it might become more important as this bull market progresses.

I have put together a silver chart that touches on this issue, since it would not be possible to do this for gold, because gold has technically had only one phase, whereas silver has had two:

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Although it didn’t appear to be a breakdown, silver just closed the day (and week) at a new yearly low. Remember the day when silver moved briefly below $14? Ultimately, silver futures closed at $14.15 on that day, and they just closed at $14.14 on Friday. So little, yet so much. Breakdown confirmed by weekly closes is something very significant and yet, it’s not the most important thing that we will comment on in today’s analysis. The key details will come from the gold market. Let’s move right to it (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ben_Jardine

The stark realisation that the oil industry, with its volatile fluctuations, is an unreliable source of income for the Sultanate of Oman, has encouraged its leaders in 1988 to introduce what is commonly referred to as the ‘Omanization’ of its economy. In short, this means that through its National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification (Tanfeeth), the Omani government has decided to develop the following sectors: manufacturing, transport, logistics, and tourism. This they hope, will transform its economy from one that is less reliant on its oil reserves and expat workers, to one that is self-sufficient at its core.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Axel Merk Exclusive: Can You Sleep at Night When the Market Goes Against You?

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel reveals the one big mistake many investors are making in not rebalancing their portfolios right now, and he explains why he still sees gold as an important asset to own despite its recent weakness. Don’t miss an eye-opening interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets showed some modest strength this week, with gold bulls pushing prices above the $1,200 level on Thursday. As of this Friday recording though, gold is back below $1,200 and trades at $1,197 an ounce, flat for the week now.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rare capitulation selloff over the past month or so.  Selling cascaded to extremes as stop losses were sequentially triggered, battering this contrarian sector to exceedingly-low levels.  While very challenging psychologically, capitulations are super-bullish.  They rapidly exhaust all near-term selling potential, leaving gold stocks wildly oversold and undervalued which births major new uplegs.

Capitulations are quite rare which makes them inherently unpredictable.  The vast majority of selloffs end normally well before they snowball into capitulation-grade plummets.  But very seldomly heavy selling just continues to intensify rather than abate like usual.  The word capitulation means “the act of surrendering or giving up”.  That’s exactly what happens in these extraordinary selling events, traders stampede for the exits.

Friday, September 14, 2018

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Friday, September 14, 2018

My Goodness, What Is Happening to Platinum? / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

You may have noticed the platinum price has fallen well below gold’s price and it continues to underperform the other precious metals. What is happening in the platinum market?

We see a handful of factors driving the recent declines in platinum. For starters, it is facing the same challenges we find in the gold and silver markets.

Friday, September 14, 2018

Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the second video in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Today’s analysis is going to be different than the other ones. We usually discuss what happened on a given day, week, or month and we elaborate on what it changed and what it didn’t change in case of the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks. But not today. Today, we are going to focus on what didn’t happen. At the first sight it seems that this means that there was no new signal. That’s not the case. The three important “nothings” that we will discuss in today’s article have important implications for the following days. That is if one knows where to look.

Let’s start with the first chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

It is very difficult to let go of someone – or something – when we have invested so much time and energy in it. It is even harder when we have invested so much of ourselves in it; when the outcome is not what we expected; when our reputation is at stake.

In this particular case, that something is gold and silver.

The emotional proclamations just a few weeks ago seemed quite strong, almost being religious in their fervor. But after two thrusts of the dagger to the heart, the explanations afterwards seem a bit hollow. 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

For Gold, It's All About the Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the factors that they believe could cause a powerful rally in gold.

Positioning, sentiment and market structure favor a powerful rally in gold. The COTs released by the CME on September 7, 2018, show the gross speculative short position grew 1.3% to 213,259 contracts, just shy of the all-time record set two weeks ago. On a net basis, speculators are short 13,500 contracts, the largest short position since December, 2001. The commercial net short position collapsed into negative territory for the first time since December, 2001 at -6,525 contracts. In other words, commercials are now net LONG, a very rare occurrence historically seen only at major turning points.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Gold Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the second article in a series of 5 to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

1. Gold Price Trend 2018 Recap
2. Trend Analysis
3. Seasonal Analysis
4. US Dollar
5. Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 9th of September. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

The Downside For Oil Price Is Limited / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

More than two weeks of nearly uninterrupted price gains for crude oil ended this week, with the rally running out of steam. The question is what happens next?

Oil prices posted steep losses just as the bulls were back on the march. WTI briefly topped $70 per barrel in recent days and Brent was flirting with $80. But the rally was kneecapped by a variety of factors, and it could be challenging to break above those key pricing thresholds in the near future.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

ALERT: Gold-to-Silver Ratio Spikes to Highest Level in 27 Years! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jason_Hamlin

The gold-silver ratio has been one of the most reliable technical ‘buy’ indictors for silver, whenever the ratio climbs above 80. The gold-to-silver ratio has now spiked above 85, which is the highest level of this entire 18-year bull market! In fact, you have to go back 27 years to 1991 for the ratio to be higher than it is today. Amazingly, the ratio is currently higher than it was at the depths of the 2008-09 financial crisis (circled in the chart below).

Monday, September 10, 2018

Gold Price 2018 Trend - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this series of 5 videos I will conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018. However the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 9th of September. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.