Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Gold and the Great Stage of Fools / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Gold prices briefly traded above $1200 on Wednesday due to the legal and political troubles facing Donald Trump following the Paul Manafort guilty verdict on Tuesday. Kitco’s Jim Wykoff reports:

Wednesday saw some trader and investor anxiety as Trump is in some hot water. Two of his close associates are likely going to jail. This has added a bit of uncertainty to the world marketplace at mid-week. There is talk Trump could pardon those associates, or that he could be impeached. And the mid-term congressional elections are right around the corner.

Gold actually climbed for five straight sessions on US dollar weakness, giving some relief to gold bugs shell-shocked by the $1174 low hit on August 22 – the worst level since January 2017. The metal of kings on Wednesday finished above the psychologically important $1200 an ounce, with gold futures trading at $1202.90, though the spot price stayed under, at $1189.70. Gold had a mini-rally on Friday, hitting $1208 an ounce (at time of writing) on comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell that the central bank is committed to gradually, not suddenly, raising interest rates.
Unfortunately however, it doesn’t look like there’s much light at the end of gold’s tunnel which has seen an especially dark summer. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee held July 31 to August 1 signalled that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates next month due to what it deems solid economic growth.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

What Would Impeaching Trump Mean for Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Clint Siegner : Robert Mueller appeared to be spinning his wheels for the last year and a half. But recent prosecutions of prominent Trump campaign figures now have Democrats giddy over the possibility of being handed grounds for impeachment.

Tasked with investigating whether or not Donald Trump and people working for him colluded with the Russians during the presidential campaign, the special counsel finally got some traction last week.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

US Dollar vs. Other Currencies and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Investment advisor Jayant Bhandari, in this conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, discusses recent moves in the U.S. dollar, the role of gold, and several arbitrage opportunities he sees.

Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven and Probable. I'm your host, Maurice Jackson. Joining us is Jayant Bhandari, the host of the highly acclaimed Capitalism & Morality seminar, and a prominent, sought-after advisor to institutional investors. Today we will discuss geopolitical events between the United States and third world nations.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Silver Price Forecast 2018-2019 - These Indicators Are Predicting New All-time High Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Dow/Gold ratio is a very reliable measure for where we are on the long-term economic timetable. It allows for an accurate reading of key economic conditions that are present at a particular period of time.

With regards to silver, the period after a Dow/Gold peak is generally great conditions for silver prices. After every major Dow/Gold ratio peak over the last 100 years, silver has gone to new all-time high prices, except for the period since the 1999 Dow/Gold ratio peak (see the silver vs Dow chart below:)

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Gold And U.S. Dollar, Buffett, Trump, – Nothing Has Changed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

“Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire…” — Warren Buffett Feb2012

During that same period (1965 – 2012) the price of gold increased from $35.00 per ounce to more than $1800.00 per ounce – a whopping 5000%.  Seven years ago this month (August 2011), the price of gold peaked at $1879.00 per ounce, and has since fallen 30% to approximately $1200.00 per ounce currently. That drop in price is the inverse reflection of the U.S dollar’s temporary strength and stability, which is up by 30%. You can see that on the chart GOLD PRICES AND US DOLLAR CORRELATION below…

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Gold has Reversed. Will the Bounce Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold has been in a very strong downtrend until this past week. But thanks to this week’s bounce, gold has snapped its 6 week loss streak.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Trade Wars, the Dollar and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rob McEwen, chairman and chief owner of McEwen Mining and former CEO of Goldcorp, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the impact of trade wars on the dollar and precious metals, where he sees the growth in precious metals equities, and how he plans to qualify McEwen Mining for the S&P 500.

The Gold Report: Prices of some commodities have been falling. What are your thoughts on the current commodities market?

Rob McEwen: The commodities market has been adversely impacted by the strong dollar and the discussion of a trade war possibility, which may already be happening. With the economies of America, Europe and Asia picking up, most investors are asking, why buy gold or silver? The dollar is the key. When it starts dropping, we will see the price of gold, silver and all commodities improve.

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Golds Wyckoff Price Road Map / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: readtheticker

Applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic. (A wealth of knowledge on this subject is disclosed via the RTT Plus service found at readtheticker.com)

Question: Is there evidence to suggest a accumulation within gold.

First, we must understand gold is controlled large positions of : futures longs, futures shorts, futures calls buy and sell, futures puts buy and sells. Each of these will be large and must be positioned before a powerful move higher or lower can occur.

1) The sharp sell off during 2013/14/15 allowed the shorts to profit, short covering occurred late 2015/16/17. The short trade from the 2011 high is done! This is good news for bulls as these positions are mostly cleared.

Friday, August 24, 2018

Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2018 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners’ stocks have been thrashed in August, plummeting to brutal multi-year lows.  Such carnage naturally left sentiment far more bearish than usual in this forsaken contrarian sector.  But these extremely-battered gold-stock prices certainly aren’t justified fundamentally.  Junior gold miners’ collective results from their just-completed Q2’18 earnings season prove their stock prices need to mean revert way higher.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

Friday, August 24, 2018

A Saudi-Iran Oil War Could Break Up OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

When OPEC and Russia shook on increasing crude oil production by a million barrels daily to stop the oil price climb that had begun getting uncomfortable for consumers from Asia to the United States, there was no sign of what was to come just two months later: slowing demand in Asia, ample supply, and a brewing price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Gold Bullion Bank Charades and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Recently, I gave an inside look into the competitive and honest market in which precious metals dealers operate. It’s a market based on supply and demand for actual physical metal in the form of coins, bars, or rounds.

However, the futures market – where global spot silver and gold prices are set – is another story.

The supply and demand for actual physical bars is pretty much irrelevant when exchanging paper contracts.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Is The 50-year Gold Mining Bear Market Coming To An End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks is in a 50-year bear market when measured in gold. This (very) roughly means that on average, it has been more economical to buy gold rather than to mine it.

Interestingly, South African gold mining production peaked two years after, in 1970, as if to confirm that mining was getting rather uneconomical.

There are a peculiar set of reasons why gold mining was so uneconomical, and this I address in my other publications.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Gold Stocks Crash! Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week GDX and GDXJ were down almost 12% at their lows on Thursday. Since then, they’ve recovered but only a tiny fraction of recent losses.

The crash did result in the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition while trading around long-term support at their December 2016 lows. It was the perfect setup for shorts to cover. That combination often results in at least a relief rally.

While a rally is underway, where it goes from here remains to be seen.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe.  With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the US Dollar strengthens.  It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade.  Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane.  For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range.  Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Gold COT Data at Extreme Levels, which suggests Recovery Should Start Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Just Take The Metals Out Back And Shoot Them! / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, does my title appropriately capture the sentiment about metals right now?

While the title may seem a bit extreme to some of you, many are leaving the metals for dead, and others have already written their obituaries.

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Historical Repetition in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Arena / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on the potential for a historical reprise of market events of 2015-2016, as well as on how algobots and bankers affect the precious metals markets.

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. – Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

I decided that before I sat down to write the weekly recap and outlook for the gold and silver markets that I would go to a few of the great commentary sites such as Streetwise, 321Gold, Goldseek and Gold-Eagle and read what the other "experts" are saying about the precious metals markets before I attack the keyboard. Earlier in the week, I had been working on a Western Uranium Corp. story and was astounded how stress-free it was writing about an energy deal as opposed to a sound money deal. After perusing perhaps two hundred paragraphs from some pretty smart guys and gals, it occurred to me that we are all looking at the same data and the same charts and reading the same headlines in an effort to sound original in our assessment of the metals

Monday, August 20, 2018

Why Silver Could Replace The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver used to be a significant part of the monetary base in many countries. You could find it as part of monetary reserves together with gold, as well as coinage in circulation.

Over the years that silver was demonetized (at least from the 1870s to roughly the 1960s), significant amounts of silver coins (official currency coins) were melted down and sold on the markets, together with silver bars (used as reserves). This brought us to today, where the amount of silver that is part of the monetary base is basically immaterial.

Monday, August 20, 2018

What the Copper and Gold Crash Means for Commodities and Stocks / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you probably know, commodity prices have been falling significantly over the past few months on Trump’s trade war, which has caused the U.S. Dollar to rise.

This has some bearish investors afraid of a few things:

1. “Contagion” from commodities and emerging markets to the U.S. stock market
2. An economic slowdown, because commodity prices are “supposed to” reflect economic data. Conventional thinking states that falling commodity prices = falling demand, which signals a slowdown in the economy.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

You be the judge...

Let's cut right to the chart below. The shaded triangle highlights the dramatic price action in crude oil prices on August 15, when crude plummeted 3% to its lowest level in over nine weeks.