Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 07, 2018
Record Gold and Silver Shorts! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold and silver were thrashed this past summer, relentlessly pounded to deep new lows. That has fueled extreme bearishness, with traders convinced the precious metals’ fundamentals are rotten. But epic all-time-record futures short selling by speculators was the real culprit. These unprecedented shorts must soon be covered with proportional buying, which is super-bullish for gold and silver prices in the coming months.
Traders generally assume fundamentals drive short-term price action, that real imbalances in supply and demand push prices to market-clearing levels. Unfortunately these core underlying dynamics are heavily distorted in gold and silver. Futures speculators who never own these precious metals are able to wield wildly-disproportional outsized influence over their prices. The main reason is extreme leverage inherent in futures.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2018
Gold Asks: If Not Recession, Then What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We are on the verge of recession. The Fed tightens and in the past it has never ended well. Yield curve is almost flat. When it inverses, it will be the end. All the bubbles will burst, pushing the global economy into another crisis. It will be more serious than all the previous cases, especially given that Trump will trigger a trade war or maybe even a conventional one.
Have you heard these gloomy prophecies? We have. Many times, probably too many times. But what if they are wrong? Let’s run our imagination wild and think what if this time is really different. We know, we know: it isn’t. But, as a counterweight for all these pessimistic narratives, let’s see what is the most rosy scenario for the world – and what does it imply for the gold market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2018
Gold Miners Setting Up for Big Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The recent rally attempt of the gold stocks fizzled out as the December 2016 lows failed to hold. Now the miners are making new lows. As they pine for the next support they figure to be even more oversold as more bulls throw in the towel. These are the conditions needed to engender a significant counter-trend rebound. While we aren’t predicting it yet, look for a bullish reversal to begin sometime in the next few weeks.
The gold stocks have lost their December 2016 support but strong support is not too far away. The breakdown in GDX below $21 projects to a measured downside target of roughly $16.50. That aligns with the next strong support level on the chart. The breakdown in GDXJ projects down to the $23-$24 area. That is very close to the next strong support level around $24-$25.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2018
Crude Oil Price Likely To Find Support In Uptrend / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70~71 ppb.
My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets. When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2018
Gold-Acquiring Foreign Powers Put Petro-Dollar in Jeopardy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s administration is playing a game of high-stakes international chess with Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, and other countries viewed as adversaries in trade and geopolitics.
It’s not necessarily the case that tariffs, sanctions, and blustering will result in a hot war. More likely, escalating strife between the U.S. and a bloc of much more populous adversaries will push them to unite more closely to undermine and ultimately dethrone King Dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2018
Are Bitcoin and Gold Bottoming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Bitcoin plunged from 7385 to 6830, or 7.5%, Wednesday in reaction to a Business Insider report that Goldman Sachs has decided to drop a year-ago decision to create a crypto-currency trading desk.
Apparently, Goldman is "uncertain" about the regulatory environment. Hmm, really? Since when has Goldman shied away from forging a new path while it influences the architecture of a new regulatory environment?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
Precious Metals Sector Now on a Long-term Sell Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
In his weekly precious metals market update, technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
Why Would You Even Think About Buying Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Gold is a relic of the past. There is no interest from the millennials for gold. The cryptocurrencies are taking demand away from gold. Central banks have been selling gold over the last few years. Interest rates do not support a rally in gold. Gold funds have been closing of late, which evidences the lack of demand for gold.
We have heard so many reasons as to why no one should buy gold. In fact, the people you speak with about gold either view it with disgust (those who own it) or complete indifference (those who do not).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
Gold and Silver’s Stormy September / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
There were only a few analyses that we started with a quote, and there were even fewer that we began by quoting a song. It may even be the first one ever.
I am the storm and I am the wonder
And the flashlights, nightmares
And sudden explosions
- Royksopp, “What Else Is There”
And you will have all the above in September. At least if you’re going to pay attention to gold, silver and mining stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Gold Price Analysis: 3 Ideas Make Tough Trading / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: WavePatternTraders
If you have been following Gold over the last few years you are probably frustrated like most Gold bulls are, essentially Gold and Gold stocks have gone nowhere for the past two years, although you could argue that the many Gold stocks have a downwards bias the past two years, but Gold is still above the Dec 2016 lows.There are a number of patterns that I am currently watching and no one idea has a strong foothold, although if any upside fails to move above $1340, then it will make a better case for Idea 3 and a large triangle has been in progress over the last 2 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 03, 2018
Super Bullish Gold and Silver Set-Up Does Not Bode Well for the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and silver and finds some positive signs. If you want to understand the great mass of investors, you don't need to spend hours reading a book written about a hundred years ago, the best way way to do it is to treat yourself to some time watching sheep. You can even make something of a vacation of it by going along to a sheep dog trial, such as the classic ones held on the English–Welsh borders in the heart of sheep country or in New Zealand. It's a fun day out and you can learn from chatting with the farmers, and more to the point, you can learn a lot about investors by watching the sheepdogs and the sheep—all you have to remember is that the sheepdogs are the Smart Money and the sheep represent the great mass of investors, the so-called Dumb Money. If you do go to the sheepdog trials on the English–Welsh borders, remember to tag on a day or two to visit nearby Hay-on-Wye, which is stuffed full of secondhand bookshops where you can find some great old books, and mercifully very few of them are written in Welsh.
Monday, September 03, 2018
Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major silver miners’ stocks have been thrashed, pummeled to brutal multi-year lows. They suffered serious collateral damage as silver plunged on gold’s breakdown, driven by crazy-extreme all-time-record silver-futures short selling. All this technical carnage left investors reeling, devastating sentiment. The silver miners’ recently-reported Q2’18 results reveal whether their anomalous plunge was justified fundamentally.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 02, 2018
Gold is the Sun, and an Anchor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The ‘Gold as Inflation Hedge’ Canard
On the one hand you have the sons of Harvey & Erb, who called gold to $800/oz. and caused a stir in the gold “community”. Per Campbell Harvey in this video with Kitco’s Daniella (dig the flowing golden locks of hair)…
“Gold is just too volatile” to be an effective inflation hedge.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 01, 2018
Upside Targets for Gold, Gold Stocks & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
After a vicious selloff precious metals have stabilized. Its not a surprise given the breadth and sentiment extremes we noted and had predicted earlier. Although recent gains have met some resistance, the immediate path of least resistance should be higher. Let’s take a look at the key support and resistance levels for the metals and the miners.
Gold has retreated after hitting $1220/oz a few days ago. That was the first area of resistance for this rebound. The next resistance level would be around $1235. If Gold can surpass $1235 then look for a move up to $1260. There is very strong resistance above $1260 while $1180 should be strong support.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 01, 2018
Silver DSLV 3X Short ETF Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today DSLV 3 X short silver etf, is breaking out from a possible bearish falling wedge. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 150 shares at the market at 34.74 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the 50 day ema which is currently at 30.06. ZSL is a 2 X leveraged etf if you don’t want all the leverage. DSLV can be pretty volatile so take small bites. A backtest to the top rail would come into play around the 34.15 area for a slightly lower risk entry point.
Friday, August 31, 2018
Are Silver and Gold 'at the Flood'? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
There is a tide in the affairs of men...
Thus, begins one of the most famous quotes ever uttered, taken from Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar. Brutus, talking to Cassius, says, "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..."
A flood tide takes place at the very crest in the water's height. Once the "tide turns," there is no stopping its ebb until, much later, it reaches an extended, even a minus low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2018
The Final Gold Bull Market Confirmation Is Very Close / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
We are getting very close to what I believe is the final confirmation of the coming multi-year gold bull market. Although it is very clear that gold is going higher from around these levels, a move pass the $1375 area would be that final confirmation, based on the update of this previously shown comparison:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2018
Eleven Reasons Why I Am Super Bullish On Gold and Silver. / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Peter_Degraaf
The Ducks are Lining Up!
This chart is courtesy Real Investment Advice.com and borrowed from a recent article: ‘Wicksell’s Elegant Model’. The brown areas in the chart highlight the periods when ‘real rates’ were and are negative. Gold tends to perform best during those periods.
Friday, August 31, 2018
How to Invest in The Farming and Agriculture Industries / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Dylan_Moran
Agriculture is always a solid choice to invest. People always need to eat no matter the current economic outlook. This is why many people consider agricultural investments to be recession proof. The good news is that you don’t actually have to own a farm to invest in them. Here is a look at how to invest in farms, all without having to actually own one.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Preparing for THE Gold Price Bottom - Buy-and-Hold on Steroids / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
All investors start their adventure in the capital markets with dreams of immediate wealth, luxurious cars, yachts, holidays in five-star hotels and making all the people around happy in a million ways. Virtually all investors have to lose a lot of money before they learn hubris and realistic expectations. Some give up investing completely, others become very conservative and claim that you can only count on long-term buy-and-hold types of investments.
Some of the people who survive the first – unavoidable – losses never give up their initial dreams and continually seek ways to make them come true. Are they doomed to fail spectacularly over and over again? Skeptics will say that searching for the Holy Grail of speculation has no sense and that the market is simply a complicated tool to drain naive investors of their capital. Enthusiasts, on the contrary, will try to convince you not to listen to the skeptics since you shouldn’t “blame the floor if you can’t dance.”
Read full article... Read full article...