Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.
Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 21, 2018
Gold’s Near-term Downside Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The price of gold moved considerably lower in the past several weeks, despite the pause that we saw in the final part of the previous week. The yellow metal moved below $1,300 and confirmed this move by several daily closes below it. Moreover, gold confirmed the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line that’s based on the daily closing prices of December 2016 and December 2017 lows. Consequently, gold’s likely to move lower and the question is how low can gold decline in the near term.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 20, 2018
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, reflect on market factors that are driving current fluctuations in the gold price.
For nearly four months now, gold has been pressured lower by a rising dollar; the inverse correlation has been almost exact. Gold has dropped 5.2% from its January 25, 2018 close of $1,362 to its May 16 close of $1,291.50. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has risen 5.4% from this year’s low close of 88.50 on February 15, 2018, to its close on May 16 at 93.26. In the past few days, shorts have jumped in to press their luck, judging from the increase in CME open interest while the price is falling.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks are still largely grinding sideways, mired in a bearish sentiment wasteland. Traders tend to assume low stock prices must be righteous, reflecting weak fundamentals rather than poor psychology. But once a quarter earnings seasons’ bright fundamental sunlight parts the obscuring fogs of popular sentiment. The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’18 results prove they remain deeply undervalued.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To Harry Meghan Royal Wedding? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV)
– Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world
– Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous
– Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere
– Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products
– Peak gold: We tell Beijing’s largest TV network that Welsh gold is limited but so too is gold everywhere
Friday, May 18, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We cannot value gold. It does not generate any cash flows, which we could discount. But it doesn’t mean that the price of gold changes randomly. Market sentiment is powerful in the precious metals market – but the same applies to other markets (after all, humans are emotional creatures). However, it does not operate in a void. Actually, there are some important fundamental drivers at work. Just like in the cosmos. It seems to be empty space – but gravity works there. Similarly, the precious metal market seems to be very emotional and without any logic, but when you look closely, you will discover important forces in action. What are they?
Friday, May 18, 2018
Natural Gas Flashes Buy Signal with Cycles Confirming / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been following the energy sector quite intensely with Oil and Natural Gas making an impressive move. A little known seasonal pattern in Natural Gas has setup recently and we have alerted our members to this play which is already up over 16%. Our advanced price modeling systems and Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles have recently triggered another buy entry point which we share in this article but first look at the seasonal chart showing the month which Natural Gas is generally strong.
Friday, May 18, 2018
We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In Gold GLD ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down. And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex.
Moreover, as I am reading out there in the blog-world, it seems many are turning quite negative with gold breaking below its 200DMA. Clearly, this is EXACTLY what we want to see to strike a bottom in the complex.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
GOLD Bullish Opportunity – Unrivaled for years to come! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
Hello everyone,
Well, the headlines were piling on strong today with doomsday predictions for GOLD and pie in the sky predictions for Crude oil!
Of course this is perfect timing as usual because;
Extreme sentiments always appear at the end of a trend,
when people tend give in to the unrelenting price move, which has already happened!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The first four months of 2018 were positive for the gold market. The price of the yellow metal has gained about 2 percent in that period. As one can see in the chart below, the rally started in mid-December.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Gold Price No More Subtleness – It’s Show Time! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
On May 1st, we knew that the precious metals sector was starting a 2-week rally based on cyclical turning points, apex-based reversals, and True Seasonality for May. The rally is over, the profits cashed in… And growing once again thanks to the new short position. What’s in store for the rest of the month and the next few ones? Something epic.
Let’s start todays’ analysis with the two most important short-term reasons due to which the outlook for the precious metals sector just became very bearish.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Silver’s Long Consolidation Looks Like a Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
The primary trend for gold and silver over the past year and a half has been the absence of any clear direction in prices. Metals markets have been stuck in consolidation mode. Yet for silver, in particular, that consolidation has formed a clear and potentially powerful pattern.
The silver market’s consolidation has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Prices are now nearing the apex of that triangle. The pattern cannot hold much longer – it must soon break in one direction or the other. And when it does, the move that follows should be sudden and sharp in one direction or the other.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Key Gold Correlation Is Back! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s back. The crucial correlation returned to the gold market. Does it herald important shifts in trends?
Real Interest Rates Are Back in Town
One of the biggest developments in the gold market during the first four months of 2018 was the breakdown of the traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and the price of bullion. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold was uncorrelated or even moved in tandem with long-term, inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury yields in Q1 2018.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
The Coming Copper Crunch / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Copper had one of it best years ever in 2017, rising 27% on the back of supply disruptions and steady demand from China, by far the largest copper consumer.
Commodities analysts are usually wrong about copper supply, always predicting a glut in the market for the ubiquitous metal used in everything from piping for plumbing to wiring in houses, to components of electric vehicles. What they fail to account for is the inevitable stoppages at the major copper mines due mostly to strikes and weather problems.
In 2017 however they were right. In January last year a collection of analysts - BMI, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and TD - were all bullish on copper, saying that after a terrible 2015 and 2016, it would be the strongest performing metal of 2017 with predictions of up to $6,200 a tonne come mid-year. By the end of 2017 copper futures trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were at their highest in four years, $7,236.50 a tonne or $3.28 a pound. Copper wasn’t the best performing metal of 2017 (that would be cobalt) but it was third behind palladium.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
The Missing Link for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities.
Monday, May 14, 2018
Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
Craig, it's been entirely too long. Thanks for joining us again, and how are you my friend?
Craig Hemke: Oh, Mike, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me back on. I'm a little more grayer, more wrinkles, all that kind of stuff in the last time since we've spoken, but that's what these markets will do to you, that's for sure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2018
Precious Metals and Miners NUGT – The Sleeping Giant Trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Throughout this year, many analysts have focused on the price of Gold, Platinum & Silver markets for insight to the fear levels that exist in the global markets. Demand for Gold and Silver have been near historically high levels for the past 12+ months and the ratio of Gold to Silver has continued to show that Silver is extremely undervalued in relative value to Gold. We’ve highlighted these facts in previous articles to our readers.
The recent news regarding economic and political concerns regarding a wide range of Emerging Markets and established economies, we believe, has continued to drive upward price pressures in the precious metals markets. We feel the Metals & Miners are setting up a unique opportunity for patient and skilled traders/investors. Possibly, the opportunity of a lifetime if our analysis is correct.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2018
The Truth About Gold That Neither Bugs Nor Bulls Want to Admit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about Gold as an investment.
Gold is one of the most divisive asset classes on the planet. Stock-centric investors such as Warren Buffett think it’s a worthless “pet rock” that fails to appreciate in value. Gold bugs, on the other hand, revere the precious metal with an almost religious-like ferocity.
Both of these views are misguided particularly when you apply them to a framework that involves TIME.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2018
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Silver the poor mans gold has so far failed to show any spark of life this year, opening the 2018 at $17.20, and then briefly rallying to a February peak of $17.60 before turning and remaining negative for the year, under performing Gold which has managed to remain positive for the year as both precious metals have effectively flat lined since their February highs, with Silver remaining stuck within a tight trading range of between $16.90 and $16.10 which is a far cry from the bullish expectations of many Silver bugs at the start of the year.