Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 18, 2018
GOLD Bullish Opportunity – Unrivaled for years to come! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
Hello everyone,
Well, the headlines were piling on strong today with doomsday predictions for GOLD and pie in the sky predictions for Crude oil!
Of course this is perfect timing as usual because;
Extreme sentiments always appear at the end of a trend,
when people tend give in to the unrelenting price move, which has already happened!
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Friday, May 18, 2018
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The first four months of 2018 were positive for the gold market. The price of the yellow metal has gained about 2 percent in that period. As one can see in the chart below, the rally started in mid-December.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
Gold Price No More Subtleness – It’s Show Time! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
On May 1st, we knew that the precious metals sector was starting a 2-week rally based on cyclical turning points, apex-based reversals, and True Seasonality for May. The rally is over, the profits cashed in… And growing once again thanks to the new short position. What’s in store for the rest of the month and the next few ones? Something epic.
Let’s start todays’ analysis with the two most important short-term reasons due to which the outlook for the precious metals sector just became very bearish.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
Silver’s Long Consolidation Looks Like a Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
The primary trend for gold and silver over the past year and a half has been the absence of any clear direction in prices. Metals markets have been stuck in consolidation mode. Yet for silver, in particular, that consolidation has formed a clear and potentially powerful pattern.
The silver market’s consolidation has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Prices are now nearing the apex of that triangle. The pattern cannot hold much longer – it must soon break in one direction or the other. And when it does, the move that follows should be sudden and sharp in one direction or the other.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Key Gold Correlation Is Back! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s back. The crucial correlation returned to the gold market. Does it herald important shifts in trends?
Real Interest Rates Are Back in Town
One of the biggest developments in the gold market during the first four months of 2018 was the breakdown of the traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and the price of bullion. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold was uncorrelated or even moved in tandem with long-term, inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury yields in Q1 2018.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
The Coming Copper Crunch / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Copper had one of it best years ever in 2017, rising 27% on the back of supply disruptions and steady demand from China, by far the largest copper consumer.
Commodities analysts are usually wrong about copper supply, always predicting a glut in the market for the ubiquitous metal used in everything from piping for plumbing to wiring in houses, to components of electric vehicles. What they fail to account for is the inevitable stoppages at the major copper mines due mostly to strikes and weather problems.
In 2017 however they were right. In January last year a collection of analysts - BMI, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and TD - were all bullish on copper, saying that after a terrible 2015 and 2016, it would be the strongest performing metal of 2017 with predictions of up to $6,200 a tonne come mid-year. By the end of 2017 copper futures trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were at their highest in four years, $7,236.50 a tonne or $3.28 a pound. Copper wasn’t the best performing metal of 2017 (that would be cobalt) but it was third behind palladium.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2018
The Missing Link for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities.
Monday, May 14, 2018
Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
Craig, it's been entirely too long. Thanks for joining us again, and how are you my friend?
Craig Hemke: Oh, Mike, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me back on. I'm a little more grayer, more wrinkles, all that kind of stuff in the last time since we've spoken, but that's what these markets will do to you, that's for sure.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
Precious Metals and Miners NUGT – The Sleeping Giant Trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Throughout this year, many analysts have focused on the price of Gold, Platinum & Silver markets for insight to the fear levels that exist in the global markets. Demand for Gold and Silver have been near historically high levels for the past 12+ months and the ratio of Gold to Silver has continued to show that Silver is extremely undervalued in relative value to Gold. We’ve highlighted these facts in previous articles to our readers.
The recent news regarding economic and political concerns regarding a wide range of Emerging Markets and established economies, we believe, has continued to drive upward price pressures in the precious metals markets. We feel the Metals & Miners are setting up a unique opportunity for patient and skilled traders/investors. Possibly, the opportunity of a lifetime if our analysis is correct.
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Sunday, May 13, 2018
The Truth About Gold That Neither Bugs Nor Bulls Want to Admit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about Gold as an investment.
Gold is one of the most divisive asset classes on the planet. Stock-centric investors such as Warren Buffett think it’s a worthless “pet rock” that fails to appreciate in value. Gold bugs, on the other hand, revere the precious metal with an almost religious-like ferocity.
Both of these views are misguided particularly when you apply them to a framework that involves TIME.
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Sunday, May 13, 2018
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Silver the poor mans gold has so far failed to show any spark of life this year, opening the 2018 at $17.20, and then briefly rallying to a February peak of $17.60 before turning and remaining negative for the year, under performing Gold which has managed to remain positive for the year as both precious metals have effectively flat lined since their February highs, with Silver remaining stuck within a tight trading range of between $16.90 and $16.10 which is a far cry from the bullish expectations of many Silver bugs at the start of the year.
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.
- By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not. The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
- The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Friday, May 11, 2018
Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Science_Investing
From A Technical Analysis PerspectiveCrude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
The Precious Metals Conundrum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published on Sun May 6, 2018 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: A sideways correction lasting a year and a half certainly does a lot to sour investors on a market. And, even though we have not dropped below 20 in GDX this entire time and the GLD has been consolidating just under its breakout region for months, the bearishness and frustration in the complex is palpable. In fact, I have even seen people calling for sub $1000 gold again, and we have not even broken a single support level yet. For me, this is a head scratcher.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Gold GLD Update…All Aboard ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
This first chart is a daily line chart for GLD which shows it has completed 5 reversal points so far and is working on the all important 6th reversal point back up to the top rail. This is where the bulls need to step up to the plate.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
A Bottom in GOLD and a Top in CRUDE! / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Enda_Glynn
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.
Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Supercycle May Be Setting Up for Higher Commodity Demand / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: The_Gold_Report
Conditions may be in place for increased demand and increased prices for a number of commodities. In this interview with Streetwise Reports, Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, discusses the commodity supercycle and the factors behind it, why some commodities may get more of a boost than others, and ways investors can profit.
The Gold Report: Frank, thank you for joining us today. Let's talk about the commodity supercycle. Would you explain what the supercycle is?
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Tuesday, May 08, 2018
Gold’s Fundamentals are Not Bullish…Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it’s due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold to a new high). Few would say the fundamentals are not in place. No one can know for certain but Gold’s fundamentals have not improved over the past year and are not where they need to be to support a breakout.
Tuesday, May 08, 2018
From Trumped Equities to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite misguided economic policies and rising geopolitical tensions, the long market expansion has prevailed. But times may be changing. With the Trump fiscal policies and rearmament, America is taking more debt than in decades, even though its sovereign debt now exceeds $21.2 trillion, or 106 percent of the GDP. As fiscal stimulus kicks in (read: Trump’s tax cuts), the deficit will widen.
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