Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 09, 2020
Copper, the Most Critical Metal / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
In 2018, before the trade war between the US and China put the boots to copper demand, and covid-19 mine closures/ abandoned expansion plans crimped supply, we made a bold prediction: that copper supply is NOT going to be able to keep up with demand in the long-term. Here’s what we wrote, in The coming copper crunch:
Even with expansions at existing mines and the ramp-up of the relatively few new copper mines like Cobre Panama, Radomiro Tomic and Toquepalain, it will not be enough to meet the onslaught of demand that is coming from China as it continues to modernize and urbanize, and electric vehicles, which use three times as much copper as regular ones. In 2016 Chinese automakers sold 28 million cars. If China follows through on its promise to go 100% electric, that would mean 2,380,000,000 kilograms of copper. At the current production rate of 20 million tonnes a year, that’s 119 years worth of copper! Just to produce enough copper for electric cars in China.
Do we expect 100% EV penetration? No. But the shift to electrification of our transportation system is real, it’s not going to go away or stop. Because it’s as real as the shift from wood to coal to fossil fuels and now to lithium. That means massive new copper supplies are needed just for Chinese EVs, whatever the EV penetration eventually turns out to be. And remember there’s the rest of the world to supply for EVs, charging infrastructure, and all of copper’s other uses.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2020
Gold Wave Forecast – Is Gold Going To $3750 Or Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Watching Gold fall to recent lows over the past few weeks has been heartbreaking for Goldbugs. We know the real value of Precious Metals has continued to be under-appreciated over the past 24+ months – even though Gold has rallied from $1165 to over $2085 (an incredible 79%). The recent 15% decline in Gold has shaken some investors away from the longer-term opportunities, so we wanted to share our research and highlight some simple Elliot Wave structures with you.
My research team and I believe the recent downward price trend in Gold is an ideal setup for an Intermediate Wave 4 pullback of a broader Wave 3 advance. In other words, we believe Gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above. But, we’ll focus on right now and what we believe is setting up from a Technical Analysis perspective.
The first thing to remember about Elliot Wave Analysis is that we must consider the broad market trends, the intermediate market trends, and the short term wave formations. With almost all types of Technical Analysis, we focus on different time perspectives of price trends and setups to help us better determine opportunities and outcomes.
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Monday, December 07, 2020
What Does Biden Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
America has elected a new President. It was a close race, but Joe Biden eventually won and he will be inaugurated and take office in the White House on January 20. The price of gold rose initially in the aftermath of the elections, only to plunge on the news regarding Pfizer’s vaccine breakthrough, as the chart below shows. This is what we know.But what’s next for the price of gold? What does a Biden presidency mean for the yellow metal? To answer these vital questions, we will analyze the agenda of the President-elect. On the official Biden-Harris Presidential Transition website , we found that the new administration has four priorities: COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equity, and climate change.
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Monday, December 07, 2020
Gold Returns Above $1,800. Has It Bottomed Out? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold returned to above $1,800. Is the correction over?As the chart below shows, the price of gold rebounded, jumping from $1,763 to $1,811 on Tuesday (December 1) and increased further on Wednesday. As a reminder, the price of gold corrected more than 6 percent in November and almost 15 percent from its peak in August. Now, the key question is whether the worst is behind the gold bulls.
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Saturday, December 05, 2020
Gold, Silver and Copper - The 3 Metallic Amigos and Their Messages / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Metals Ratios Continue to Indicate Inflation
And that is welcome for monetary and fiscal policymakers of course, since inflation is the only trick they have up their sleeve to bail this mess out once again. And this is no comment on COVID-19. The economy was slowly decelerating last year well before this guy showed up (I like the picture, okay?)…
The yield curve bottomed and turned up in August of 2019 as manufacturing was slipping, long-term yields were tanking and other economic signals were fraying in the wake of the trade war. So please, no convenient COVID excuses.
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Platinum Begins A New Rally – Gold & Silver Will Follow / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My researcher team and I have highlighted a number of recent articles about Gold and Silver and how we believed the longer-term price activity and technical analysis supported a broad market advance in Precious Metals over the next 5+ years. If not, check out Part I and Part II of our recent Gold and Silver research and price predictions.
Today, we are seeing further evidence that metals are on the move – in Platinum. Platinum has been trading below $1000 for quite a while and this is roughly HALF the price level of Gold. Typically, Platinum rallies before Gold rallies in a traditional trending phase. Platinum rallies because it is used in industrial and other fields – thus it rallies in an advanced market rally phase. Gold begins to rally when a certain level of fear enters the markets or the markets enter a depreciation phase.
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Don't Let the Silver (and Gold) Bull Shake You Off! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a measure of large investor interest, are experiencing outflows as opposed to an almost interrupted inflow over the last few months.
Mining stocks which either look for or produce these metals have been moving sideways, testing the "mettle" of even perma-bulls.
Many investors see these as negative signs. But I view it as a Mr. Market's last big effort to "shake the tree," causing as many people as possible to fall off the galloping bull and head for cover.
As David Morgan has so aptly – and during times like this, often said, "A precious metals' bull run (especially that of silver) will either wear you out our scare you out!
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Friday, December 04, 2020
Stronger Risk Appetite Sends Gold below $1,800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold plunged below $1,800. Will these declines finally end?November doesn’t look like a good month for gold. The declines in the precious metals market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal dropped to $1,779 on Friday (November 27).
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Wednesday, December 02, 2020
Gold & the USDX: Correlations / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s crunch time for gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), as they find themselves at a crossroads. As of Wednesday, the USDX is holding its lows but wants to move up, thus invalidating its breakdown. And gold? Well, gold did gain a bit today, but it’s essentially jumping up in an elevator that’s moving down – it just doesn’t have enough steam to break out.
While it’s been the traditional view that when the US Dollar declines, gold increases in price, we find that's not always the case when comparing historical patterns. And just to watch the price of gold itself when making a buying decision is not enough. One needs to pay attention to the price of gold in relation to moves in the USDX – that helps to indicate the bottom.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2020
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Although the apparent results of the 2020 election are still being contested, members of the global ruling elite are already looking forward to a post-Trump era in American politics – and a post-vaccine world economy.
They have encapsulated their policy agenda for 2021 and beyond into two words: “Great Reset.”
The notion of a Great Reset comes directly from the World Economic Forum.
Saturday, November 28, 2020
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
The last time I wrote a title like the above was on June 19th; and wouldn’t you know that the correction ended the very next trading day? The consolidation breakout on Monday, June 22 created the gap you will see as a downside objective on the daily chart of HUI below.
Gold Sector Correction is Maturing (6.19.20)
That was a routine correction as gold and the gold miners were still part of one big relief party as central banks flooded the markets with liquidity to meet the deflationary crisis of the virus-ridden spring.
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Saturday, November 28, 2020
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold plunged to $1,800. What does this imply for the gold market?Whoa! Tuesday, November 24 wasn’t too good for gold. The price of the yellow metal plunged then from $1,840 to $1,800. Actually, November was an awful month for gold prices, which dropped from a local peak of $1,941, or more than 7 percent.
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Friday, November 27, 2020
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Responsible homeowners and landlords insure their property against fires, floods and violent storms. Sensible motorists insure their vehicles against inadvertent fender benders and costly collisions. Prudent investors own precious metals to protect financial assets from currency debasement, stock market meltdowns and economic collapse.
Reducing risk and avoiding financial loss is the purpose of insurance. Precious metals is the insurance plan that everyone needs – especially now. Like insurance, precious metals safeguard financial assets, reducing risk and loss. This is because gold is the most negatively correlated asset to financial assets.
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Thursday, November 26, 2020
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It might have been tempting to think that the recent move lower in the U.S. Dollar Index would serve to push gold higher, as it usually does according to the traditional pattern. But these are extraordinary times and there are too many external factors weighing negatively on the price of the yellow metal.
As if the previous vaccine announcements weren’t enough, the latest vaccine trials from AstraZeneca further propelled positive news. And as Trump reluctantly gave Joe Biden the green light towards a transition to the White House, what more can the precious metals do but capitulate? The risky assets train is leaving the station and investors are climbing on board. There simply is no clear catalyst for gold to rally and it can only go further down from here before bottoming.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Biden the Silver Bull / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes Biden could become silver's best friend. It may seem like an unlikely match.
But there are some big reasons why Biden could become silver's best friend.
The main force behind this thesis is that we can expect stimulus. A lot of stimulus.
More specifically, Biden is likely to do his utmost to bring on more general support for the economy through increased borrowing, further expanding the deficit and national debt.
He has also made it clear that he's a big proponent of a Green New Deal, which is a mega effort to migrate the economy towards renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the charts for commodities like soybeans and the components used in handheld electronic devices, and reflects on what they say about the future prospects of those who hold mortgages and invest in precious metals.
As I peruse my favorite website in search of technical patterns for various commodities and stocks, I am reminded of the soon-to-be-immortal words of former stock salesman and current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, when he announced a major shift in policy related to "inflation targeting." As the Gregorian-like chant of "Bye-bye 2%" echoes throughout the room, a second memory appears of a quote that I lifted from the pages of Yale Hirsch's timeless "Stock Trader's Almanac," where it is said that "Inflation is like toothpaste; once out of the tube, it is impossible to get it back in."
Rather than applying my obsessive-compulsive personality disorder to the same old charts of first gold and silver, then the senior and junior miners, and ending with virtually everything that is in my personal portfolio, I decided this morning to change it up. They say that "sometimes a change is better than a rest," so as the Powell-esque mantra resonated in the background, I thought of food prices and how my trusty government agencies are constantly feeding me information about how "subdued" the inflation rates are thanks to the mercurial talents of the central bankers.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Vaccines are coming. But so is the debt crisis. What does it imply for gold?
COVID-19 cases are still rising at an alarming rate in the United States. As the chart below shows, the rolling 7-day average of new daily infections stays above 160,000.
Monday, November 23, 2020
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When making decisions regarding the gold mining stocks sector, some will choose to follow price actions while others will use indicator tools. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) is one such tool, essentially being a gauge of overbought and oversold conditions for the gold mining sector with readings plotted on a range between 0 and 100. Anything below 30 suggests oversold conditions while readings above 70 indicate an overbought situation, with a buy or sell signal being triggered when the index reaches an extreme level and then reverses. Because gold stocks move in tune with gold or silver, the index can be useful in determining the direction of the entire precious metals sector as well as acting like a crystal ball when comparing historical patterns.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system is showing some interesting future trends for both Gold and Silver. The rally in precious metals has really just started if our ADL system is accurately predicting future price trends.
Over the past two years, we’ve highlighted a number of ADL research posts that have proven to be incredibly insightful regarding future market price trends. The ADL predictive modeling system is unique in that it maps out price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to correlate future price characteristics into highly probable outcomes. The result is a clear picture of what the ADL system believes is the most likely outcome based on the selected price bar.
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
It was only after he entered politics that President Donald Trump began to fully grasp the bias, dishonesty, and fakeness that runs throughout the so-called mainstream media.
But gold bugs and sound money advocates have long known to distrust the reporting of establishment news sources.
Journalists’ anti-gold and anti-Trump biases converged this week as the Senate took up President Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board.
Shelton, a fierce Fed critic and past supporter of a gold standard, drew intense opposition from Senate Democrats. She also faced opposition from Republicans Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney.
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