Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future.  Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal.  On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?

Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Department of Justice prosecutors charged a sixth JPMorgan executive for cheating in the precious metals markets.

Jeffrey Ruffo stands accused of racketeering and spoofing metals prices from 2008 - 2016, along with other crimes including conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

The indictment outlines nearly a decade spent coordinating with other traders in JPMorgan’s precious metals department to rig prices. The activity includes thousands of fraudulent trades placed for two purposes.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In Friday’s article, we wrote that what comes up must correct and gold has indeed shown to be in a corrective mode. We also wrote that the yellow metal was unlikely to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the previous upswing and while gold moved to this level earlier today, it didn’t break below it. At least not in any significant way – the few cents below this level doesn’t really count. Let’s take a closer look at gold’s overnight chart to see what the decline means.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Submissions

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, November 18, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just enjoyed a phenomenal quarter for gold, which soared after its first bull-market breakout in years.  Q3’19’s much-higher prevailing gold prices should’ve driven soaring earnings for the miners, due to their big inherent profits leverage to gold.  So this just-completed Q3 earnings season is the most important for this sector in a long time.  Did the gold miners’ fundamentals indeed radically improve?

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched way back in May 2006, it has an insurmountable first-mover lead.  GDX’s net assets running $11.8b this week were a staggering 40.2x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is effectively this sector’s blue-chip index.

Monday, November 18, 2019

The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Sunday, November 17, 2019

What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In a key policy shift, the ECB has recently introduced tiered system of interest rates. This news isn’t of interest only to the banks keeping their reserves at the ECB. In today’s article, you’ll learn about the new instrument of monetary policy, and find out what it implies for the gold market.

If you think that monetary policy in the United States is crazy, you are right. But in Europe, it is even stranger (and in Japan, it is really insane). As you probably remember, in September, the ECB introduced a package of measures to ease monetary policy further in the face of sluggish economic growth and subdued inflation. In particular, the Governing Council resumed quantitative easing (the bank will be purchasing €20 billion of assets monthly), eased the conditions for TLTRO operations, strengthened the forward guidance strategy, and – the crème de la crème – cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50 percent, as the chart below shows. The ECB used, of course, all these instruments already in the past. What is really new is the introduction of the tiering system. How does it work and what could be its consequences for the euro area economy and gold prices?

Sunday, November 17, 2019

DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Impeachment circus lows and stock market highs dominated the news cycle this week, and precious metals are quietly attempting a recovery.

Bulls still have some work to do to repair the technical damage inflicted on both metals during last week’s selling. Gold and silver still face some overhead resistance and the potential for concentrated short selling by financial institutions in the futures markets.

Significant price bottoms are usually reached after the commercial sellers force the speculative longs to capitulate. We certainly saw some of that last week. Whether there is one final washout ahead remains to be seen.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months. 

In Part I and Part II, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be very compelling evidence that any continue oil price decline from current levels may be setting up the global markets for a massively volatile price reversion – similar to what happened in 1929. 

Prior to the stock market collapse in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, commodity prices collapsed in 1921 and again in 1930.  This commodity price collapse was the result of over-supply and a dramatic change in investor mentality.  The shift away from tangible items and real successful investing/manufacturing and towards speculation in the housing markets and stock market.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

The gold price bottomed in late 2015 around $1,050 per ounce. It has since advanced to a high of $1,555 in early September, followed by a pullback to the current price of $1,470. Gold is in a well-defined uptrend channel with higher lows and recently higher highs. The breakout above $1,360 this summer was significant and we have seen follow-through buying. The $420 move in the price of gold from the bottom in late 2015 represents a gain of 40% in just under four years.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

1. Gold’s annual returns 2000 to present

In the February edition of this newsletter, we ran an article under the headline:  Will 2019 be the year of the big breakout for gold? Though we would not characterize gold’s move to the upside so far this year as ‘the big breakout,’ 2019 has been the best year for gold since 2010 even with the recent correction taken into account.  Back in September when the price gold reached $1550 per ounce – up almost 22% on the year – 2019 was looking more like a breakout year. Now with the move back to the $1460 level, the market mood has become more restrained. As it is, gold is up 15 of the last 19 years and still up 14.45% so far this year.

Friday, November 15, 2019

What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019.  Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is expected to target $25 to $30 in February~April 2020.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Gold and Silver Capitulation Time / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

With gold and silver prices having tumbled, sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines how he will weather the storm.

"People everywhere are being fed propaganda, lies and false stimuli of all kinds, but deep in their hearts, deep in their instincts, they know something is wrong."—G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island

My usual weekend missive was mildly delayed for a very good reason; I spent most of Friday evening and Saturday morning formulating this wonderfully verbose theory on why the Fed's sudden shift from "quantitative tightening" to "massive stimulus" had such a negative effect on yields, with an associated and very sharp spillover into my beloved precious metals.

Having read it over several dozen times, I then began mulling over the various charts that I post from time to time and quickly decided to "bin it," because my readers no longer wish to hear about the COT report or the "cartel" or the "egregious open interest" or "fraudulent bullion banks." I can't state this forcefully enough: We have all seen this before way too many times.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

The Case for a Silver Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yes, you read that right. Despite all the bearish developments that we described in the previous analyses, and despite myriads of bearish factors that remain in place for the following months, it seems that the white metal is about to rally. Gold, and mining stocks could move higher as well, and we’ll move to that shortly. For now, let’s talk silver.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Currently, commodity prices are the cheapest they’ve been in over 40 years compared to equity prices.  US Equities have continued to rise over the past 7+ years due to a number of external processes.  QE1, 2, 3, and Fed Debt Purchases Share Buy-Backs and creative credit facilities.  Only recently have investors really started to pile into the US stock market (see charts below). Global investors were very cautious throughout the rally from 2011 to 2016.  In fact, the amount of capital invested within the US money market accounts was relatively flat throughout that entire time.

It was only after the 2016 US presidential election that investors really began to have confidence in the global economy and started piling into the US stock market and money market accounts.  This was also after the time that Oil began to collapse (2014~16) as well as the deflation of Emerging Markets rallies.  With all this new money having entered the global markets and equities being extremely overbought currently, what would happen is Oil collapsed below $40 and the global economic outlook soured headed into the 2020 US presidential election?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

The EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The prevailing wisdom that sees explosive and long-term potential for U.S. shale may rest on some faulty and overly-optimistic assumptions, according to a new report.

Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), along with those from its Paris-based counterpart, the International Energy Agency (IEA), are often cited as the gold standard for energy outlooks. Businesses and governments often refer to these forecasts for long-term investments and policy planning.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Our summary of the current situation in the precious metals is not going to differ much from what we wrote yesterday, and the reason is simple. The decline in gold, silver, and miners is developing just as we’ve been expecting it to. Most importantly, gold has just confirmed its breakdown and everything that we reported on gold’s outlook and price targets just got a huge confirmation.

Let’s take a look at what gold, silver, and mining stocks did in the last couple of days.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09.  The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.

We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19.  Our intent was to highlight the new price high similarities as well as the price rotation similarities between the two critical peaks in market price. We are terming the current market a “Zombie-land” because it appears global investors are somewhat brain-dead as to the total risks that are setting up in the global markets right now. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Gold Price Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

The metals market is an extremely emotional one. The highs and lows you see with metals traders are evident at each of the extremes. I think we are now approaching another extreme.

Several months ago, back in early June, I notified those willing to listen that gold was preparing to “take off like a rocket-ship.” To my members of ElliottWaveTrader.net, I outlined my expectations for a strong rally to the 137 region, followed by a continued move to the 143/45 region before we see a larger consolidation. Thus far, the market has been reacting as generally expected.