Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 01, 2019
Fed Interest Cuts Rates, Causing Gold Price to See-Saw / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday, that was already the third time this year when the Fed cut interest rates. In response, the price of gold erased earlier losses. That sounds a bit fishy. What is going on?
Fed Lowers Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on October 29-30th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the third time in 2019 already:
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Thursday, October 31, 2019
Gold Juniors Decline While Senior Miners Rally – What Gives? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Do you know what mining companies did yesterday? They verified a major breakdown, confirming the extremely bearish outlook for the following months. What? The miners rallied? Oh, you mean the senior mining stocks (HUI, GDX…) – then yes, they moved a bit higher. But the junior miners (Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index) just declined after confirming breakdown below the very important rising support line, which has profound implications for the next months. Truth be told, what’s happening in the senior miners can be used to indicate the next short-term moves as well, but we’ll start today’s analysis with the big picture.
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Silver’s Three Legged Bull-Run Stool / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
A case can be made that silver's current price “stability” – believed by many to be well below where it "should" be – is the result of at least three interlocking factors.
There are certainly other considerations, but the following seem especially relevant today…
Our chosen metaphor is the three-legged stool. Take one leg away, and the stool topples. In the case of silver, the outcome is likely to be a violent price rise of epic proportions.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold bull run of 2019 peaked early September at $1566, up over 25% on the year! Which will likely have encouraged many prominent gold bugs to get carried away with various headlines of Gold heading for $5000, $10,000 and beyond. However, since it's peak the Gold price has been drifting lower at a shallow pace to it's last closing price of $1491, still up over 19% on the year. So is this a correction in a bull market or marks the end of Gold's bull run for 2019?
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Is Gold The Secret Diversifier? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Harry_Dent
It’s no secret to you that I am still more bearish on gold than bullish. And it’s no secret to me that a lot of our subscribers still like gold and feel that it is still a safe haven and a good store of value long term.Despite having argued that gold was one of the largest bubbles and a part of the larger 30-Year Commodity Cycle bubble and crash, I’ve also noted that both it and Bitcoin have weathered the crash much better than other commodities. And by the way, it has been the commodity sector that thus far has proven my view that bubbles don’t have soft landings when they finally burst .
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Silver Price Daily Reversals Powerful Lessons / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday’s session was exceptional for several reasons and the most profound ones are gold’s and silver’s sizable intraday rally, and the subsequent slide. The reversals that both metals created are practically screaming signs pointing to what’s next. The way mining stocks behaved, and how gold closed relative to its previous tops also have important implications, but let’s start today’s analysis with the former.
Silver, the less valuable (at least so far) of the most popular precious metals and many small investors’ metal of choice, reversed in a particularly meaningful way.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Powerful Lessons of Silver’s Daily Reversals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday’s session was exceptional for several reasons and the most profound ones are gold’s and silver’s sizable intraday rally, and the subsequent slide. The reversals that both metals created are practically screaming signs pointing to what’s next. The way mining stocks behaved, and how gold closed relative to its previous tops also have important implications, but let’s start today’s analysis with the former.
Silver, the less valuable (at least so far) of the most popular precious metals and many small investors’ metal of choice, reversed in a particularly meaningful way.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
GATA’s Powell: Attacks on Gold & Silver Prices Are Losing Their Impact / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee joins me and updates us on the recent developments in the gold and silver manipulation prosecutions and discusses how the price spoofing schemes by the bullion banks may be tied to trades by central banks working to keep a lid on prices.
Chris also explains why he thinks the “powers at be” are losing control of the price and how the recent positive price action in the metals markets suggests they have lost some of their influence in the markets. So be sure to stick around for a jam-packed interview with Chris Powell of GATA, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, another week, another new and expanded repo market intervention by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened twice with fresh liquidity injections. Fed officials raised their offerings for overnight repos up from $75 billion to a staggering $120 billion.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Will Central Banks Prevent Recession and Push Gold Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trade wars, geopolitical tensions and slowing economic indicators. Both the ECB and the Fed have recently cut interest rates to stimulate slowing growth, hoping to escape possible recession. Will they succeed? After all, they don’t have the most reliable record when it comes to preventing busts. Let’s get into the central flaw of central banking and what it implies for gold.
Both the ECB and the Fed have just cut interest rates to stimulate slowing growth and to escape possible recession. Will they succeed? The question is, of course, rhetorical. The recovery from the Great Recession has been the slowest postwar recovery, despite the massive monetary (and fiscal) stimulus, as the chart below shows.
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Saturday, October 26, 2019
Silver & Gold to Inform Dr. Copper and so, the Macro / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
They call copper the metal with the Ph.D. in Economics. But these days Doctor Copper is little more than a quack in that regard, taking a cue from the metals whose interplay will be critical to deciding the coming macro for 2020 and the run up to the next US election. Thus, they are the 3 Metallic Amigos, riding together but providing different signals at different times (this being nftrh.com, you will have to put up with the odd shtick from time to time).
As we have noted repeatedly, the Silver/Gold ratio takes it place alongside other indicators (like long-term Treasury yields, yield curve, TIPs ratios, inflation breakevens, etc.) of a would-be inflationary environment. When silver (more cyclical, commodity-like characteristics) rises vs. gold (more counter-cyclical, liquidity haven characteristics) it is a hint toward an inflationary macro.
A daily chart of silver/gold shows a constructive ratio at yesterday’s close and this morning in pre-market silver is +2.77% while gold is +.77%. The implication could well be an end to the current bull flag consolidation at the moving averages and the next upturn in silver/gold, the miners and possibly the inflation/reflation trades that tend to follow.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
Gold, Credit And The Coming Financial Collapse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Since 2016, the US Monetary Base has declined by about 23.68%. This is the deepest and longest decline since the Federal Reserve was formed. This should not be ignored.
The last time there was a decline close to this magnitude,there was a sharp deflationary recession. That was the one that occurred from 1920 to 1921.
Below, is a long-term chart of the Monetary base that goes back to 1918:
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Gold, the Shining Star Among Commodities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold is the most effective commodity investment, yet it is under-invested, the WGC reports. What makes it special and deserving of our focus? And how to translate that focus into an appropriate allocation within one’s portfolio?
Gold is Unique Commodity. Or… Maybe Not?
Gold is often included into commodities. It seems natural, gold is a metal, after all. And just like other raw materials, it is used in the production of manufactured goods. But gold is much more than that. According to the recent report published by World Gold Council, there are six features which differentiate gold from other commodities:
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Divergence of Gold And Bitcoin – Which Represents A True Safe-Haven? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, Mark Zuckerberg appeared before the US Congress to discuss his new Libra project and to attempt to calm concerns related to his new global alternate currency project. It appears this project is putting global political leaders in a particularly powerful position of either accepting the Libra project as a viable future solution and implementing new laws and regulations in support of it or to shelve the idea while they consider the local and global risks associated with a project that creates a new class of global currency. (Source: https://www.bloomberg.com)
We believe the risks associated with a massive corporate and international backed Crypto/Alternate currency are far too great, at this time, for the US government to attempt to consider with only 12+ months to go before the US Presidential elections. This is almost like opening Pandora’s Box in terms of total global risks and outcomes. It becomes almost impossible for the US government, Federal Reserve or any other global central bank to be able to protect its citizens from the risks associated with any type of technology collapse, fraud, hacking or any other unknown risks associated with such an idea.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Gold’s Seasonal Outlook for Q4 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“What is the best predictor of future behavior? Past behavior.” And while this certainly does not always hold, there is a lesson to be learned from this adage for gold investors. Yup, a saying about behavior might be important for the precious metals market. The basic idea is that behavior can be understood as history here. And so, the best predictor of future developments could be past developments. In other words, past developments might hold some indications as to the fluctuations in the market.
In particular, market patterns might repeat over time. It might just as well be the case that investors behave in a similar manner during specific times in the year. One classic example is the period after New Year – it has been argued that the investors are optimistic at the beginning of the year and that markets could rally then. Another one are the summer doldrums – the old saying is “sell in May and go away” - meaning that people tend to tune out during the summer holidays more than at other times throughout the year. New Year and the summer do not move throughout the year. But Thanksgiving does – it is not always on the same day. The same goes for the market. Some influences could be difficult to pinpoint. The one we focus on is the expiration of derivatives. Futures contracts and options do not always expire on the same day in the month. And so to account for them is slightly more complicated. Even more so if you would like to combine classic seasonal patterns with the expiration of derivatives.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Duel Between Johnson and Parliament. Will Gold Win? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Boris Johnson struggles to push the Brexit agreement through the British Parliament. For it can bite back! Who wins this battle? One could hope that gold, but this is not so certain…
Johnson’s Struggle, Explained
On Thursday, the breaking news came out that the EU and the UK reached agreement on Brexit. The agreement scrapped the Irish backstop that had formed the bulk of the opposition to the former proposals. Naive who believed that it would change something! We have to admit that we thought for a while that finally the Brexit saga was coming to an end.
But the British government still has a long way to go! On Saturday, the Parliament voted for a change to the sequencing of the ratification of the deal. It means that they withheld support on Johnson’s Brexit deal until all the necessary legislation is passed. In this way, the lawmakers forced the prime minister to write a letter to the EU requesting a delay until January 31.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Making Money Trading Oil: A Slippery Investment or Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Gold Prices Stand to Rally on Brexit Delay / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
With the odds of a Brexit deal by the October 31 deadline declining, gold bulls may stand to benefit.
The price of gold has been in a narrow range over the past session with support at $1479 drawing buyers while the shiny metal continues to struggle to rally above the psychological $1500 level.
Gold prices have been held higher by a weaker dollar as of late while at the same time suppressed by positive developments in the US-China trade war and progress in Brexit. But that could change quickly.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Yes, Gold “Just Sits There” and That’s Quite a Feat / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig famously referred to gold as a “Pet Rock” in 2015. He was blasted by people who understand that gold is no passing fad, and it serves some very important roles in an investment portfolio.
The valuable roles played by gold have been well covered here. It’s a hedge against both inflation and deflation, it represents true diversification for portfolios stuffed with conventional securities, and it is a way of protecting wealth during tumultuous times.
But Jason Zweig, Warren Buffett and other notable gold critics who complain about the metal “just sitting there” fail to understand the flaw in their basic assertion.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Gold Price Has Not Corrected Enough / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Precious Metals enjoyed a very strong move this past summer. Both Gold and gold stocks broke past multi-year resistance and showed the kind of positive momentum that has been lacking for years.
But strong momentum coupled with major technical resistance set in, along with a temporary shift in fundamentals, thus creating a roadblock and a correction. The precious metals complex has corrected some but our work argues they’ve not corrected enough.
First, let’s take a look at Gold and gold sentiment.
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Saturday, October 19, 2019
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
What’s In Play Now
It has been about 2 months since the gold stock sector, as represented by the HUI index, topped out. The ensuing correction has been a whipsaw affair of ups and downs, but smoothing that volatility out we find an ongoing correction in time and price that has not been too difficult to manage.
The pattern that some would call a “complex H&S” (TA-speak for a freakish pattern with too many shoulders) held a key lower high on the recent bounce to the daily chart’s SMA 50 (blue line). The neckline has been tested (and held) twice since it was created in September and the negative RSI divergence that began last summer has been guiding Huey downward.
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