Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).
The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
The Notre Dame Fire: Lessons for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Monday’s fire of Notre Dame Cathedral shocked the world. Since then, the French, the Catholics, and the architecture and art lovers hadn’t been talking about anything else. The precious metals community was less disturbed – even though it turns out that gold investors can actually learn a lot from the Notre Dame’s fire.
We have visited Paris for the first time only a month ago. Maybe this is why the images of Notre Dame being consumed by fire have aroused our emotions, even though we are not connoisseurs of architecture. Luckily, the cathedral has survived and the scale of damages is not as grave as it first seemed.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Gold Market Key Message from IMF / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the IMF, during which the latter organization released its fresh World Economic Outlook, has just ended. What are the takeaways for the gold market?
Stagnation or Acceleration after the Slowdown?
In Thursday’s Gold News Monitor, we pointed out that the IMF significantly cut outlook for the Eurozone’s economic growth this year from 1.6 to 1.3 percent. But what about other economies? The IMF forecasts now 2.3 percent rise in the American GDP, 0.2 percentage point slower than it was projected in January. Global growth is now projected to be 3.3 percent, a downward revision from the 3.5 percent forecasted three months earlier. After such cuts in world economic outlook, gold should shine, shouldn’t it?
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The big picture fundamentals for precious metals have been trending more bullish in recent months as expectations for the Federal Reserve went from a few rate hikes in 2019 to an expectation of a rate cut within the next 12 months. That is aligned with the peak in the 2-year yield and growing concerns over slowing growth globally.
However, that doesn’t preclude a temporary improvement in the economy and markets. China is stimulating again. Global equities have recovered and the S&P 500 is on the cusp of a new high.
All of this means a Fed rate cut in the next 12 months is less likely. Not unlikely but less likely.
Precious Metals have been trading on Fed rate expectations for a while. Higher highs in equities and some stabilization in the economy will chip away at expectations for a rate cut and as a result, some bearish price action is showing up in the precious metals sector.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Three Rules for Making a Winning Investment in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The questions first-time precious metals buyers ask most often are "what should I buy?" and "how do I get started?" We have covered these questions many times over the years, but they are worth reconsidering from time to time.
The very first rule of precious metals investing is to avoid collectible coins and buy low-premium bullion (non-collectible) products instead. Well, to be precise, it is actually those many shady rare coin dealers one needs to avoid.
The dealers to avoid are usually the ones heavily marketing on TV and radio using celebrity spokesmen, looking for inexperienced buyers. They know what buttons to push. The ads talk a lot about real issues – concerns such as the massive federal debt and the potential for U.S. dollar depreciation to wipe out savings and wealth.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a big surprise. The dovish surprise. In March, Powell doubled down on its accommodative stance. Does he know something we are not aware of? We invite you to read our today’s article about the recent Fed’s U-turn and find out whether it will support the gold prices.
Three months can make a big difference! In December 2018, the Fed raised the federal funds rate and signaled another two hikes in 2019 and further one in 2020. Powell also reaffirmed that the Fed would continue to unwind its balance sheet, by up to $50 billion per month, and he sounded very hawkish. But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting at the end of January, he sounded much softer, announcing that the Fed would pause its interest rate hikes and end its balance sheet normalization this year. But in March, Powell doubled down on its dovish stance, signaling no hikes in 2019 and just one hike in 2020. The FOMC also announced that the quantitative tightening will end in September, after tapering its pace in May. What caused the Fed’s U-turn?
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase. In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span. Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change. But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.
This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me to update us on some of the best value propositions he sees in the markets. He also reveals why he’s very bullish on the metals right now and why he expects the next leg higher to happen in the blink of an eye. Don’t miss another wonderful conversation with the man the Mining Journal named America’s Best Fund Manager, Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets are struggling to gain ground as gold prices continue to oscillate around the $1,300 level. For a 7th straight week, gold traded into or out of $1,300 per ounce. Earlier in the week, gold climbed above that key level but got pulled back below it Thursday on heavy selling.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
Palladium, Darling of the PGEs, Shifting into High Gear / Commodities / Palladium
By: Richard_Mills
The platinum group elements (PGEs) consist of six metallic elements found in the Periodic Table: iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), palladium (Pd), platinum (Pt), rhodium (Rh) and ruthenium (Ru). Platinum and palladium are the most well-known of the PGEs due to their industrial applications in diesel and gasoline engines. The market for palladium has become especially interesting of late, with the price of the silvery-white metal gaining 18% in 2018, an otherwise down year for metals. Scaling an uncharted $1,600 per ounce in March, palladium is up 70% from a year ago.
We’ll get into the reasons for that in this article, and much more, as we dig deep into the world of PGEs.
Characteristics
PGEs share similar physical and chemical properties, and they usually occur together in the same orebodies. The similarities include a resistance to corrosion, high melting points, and catalytic qualities, meaning they speed up chemical reactions without themselves being chemically altered.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
MMT is a spectacularly Dem idea / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Economists are good for one thing, and that is creating theories. The trouble is, those theories are often wrong. This is why economics is often called “the dismal science”. Such is the case with the latest economic soup-de-jour, Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.
In this article we take a deep dive into MMT: What is it? Who’s behind it or against it, whether it could work, and what it would mean for gold.
What is MMT?
Modern Monetary Theory is a new way of approaching the US federal budget that is both unconventional and absurd. It posits that rather than obsessing about how large the debt has grown (over $2 trillion) and the ongoing annual deficits that fuel debt, we should focus on spending, specifically, how the government can target certain spending programs that will cause minimal inflation. Fiscal policy on steroids is, according to its proponents, to be the new engine of US growth and prosperity.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
The 'Silver Lines' of Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: EWI
How to turn a simple chart into a near-term road map
On February 20, Variety Magazine's "Film News Roundup" announced a new thriller coming to theaters near you: "The Silver Bear."
Funny enough, that same day, another kind of thriller was playing out in the theater of finance; its name, the Silver Bull!
The chart below captures the action: Since the start of 2019, silver prices had been on a tear, soaring to $14, $14.50, $15, $15.50 and then $16 per ounce in late February in a white-hot winning streak that has outperformed even gold.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
Gold Stocks Bull Market Breakout Potential / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has faded from interest in the past couple months, overshadowed by the monster stock-market rally. But gold has been consolidating high, quietly basing before its next challenge to major $1350 bull-market resistance. A decisive breakout above will really catch investors’ attention, greatly improving sentiment and driving major capital inflows. With gold-futures speculators not very long yet, plenty of buying power exists.
Last August gold was pummeled to a 19.3-month low near $1174 by extreme all-time-record short selling in gold futures. The speculators trading these derivatives command a wildly-disproportional influence on short-term gold price action, especially when investors aren’t buying. Gold-futures trading bullies gold’s price around considerably to majorly, which can really distort psychology surrounding the gold market.
The main reason is the incredible leverage inherent in gold futures. This week the maintenance margin required to trade a single 100-troy-ounce gold-futures contract is just $3400. That’s the minimum cash traders have to keep in their accounts. Yet at the recent $1300 gold price, each contract controls gold worth $130,000. So gold-futures speculators are legally allowed to run extreme leverage up to 38.2x!
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Friday, April 12, 2019
Natural Gas Continues To Offer Opportunities for Longs / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, April has been a pretty consistent upside opportunity in Natural Gas for over 20 years. Over the past 24+ years, the upside opportunity in Natural Gas has been accurate over 68% of the time with the average upside potential ranging from $0.60 to $0.85. With Natural Gas sitting down near recent lows and seeing as though we are still fairly early in the month of April, our researchers believe the opportunity still exists for some quick profits in UNG with an upside move from below $23.95 to a target level of $26 to $28 (roughly +9 to +18%).
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
Gold and Silver Still on the Road to a Low Risk Setup / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…
Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.
The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
The Gold Market Right After Super Wednesday / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Super Wednesday is behind us! The masters of monetary policy have revealed their cards. The Fed released the fresh minutes, the ECB held its monetary policy meeting, while the Brexit was postponed again. How will all these play out in the gold market?
Minutes Show Patience among the FOMC Members
The minutes from the pivotal FOMC meeting show that the Fed saw the first-quarter economic slowdown as transitory and that the real GDP growth would bounce back solidly in the second quarter. Although the yield curve inverted for a while, the central bankers noted that the unusually low level of term premiums in longer-term interest rates has made the yield curve a less reliable economic indicator.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
Sprout-less Gold now Tier 1 Capital / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Gold is often criticized by Wall Street as being kind of a useless investment.
Institutional investors tend to prefer investments that are thought to contain the potential for growth, growth = sprouts. An investment has to produce a growing revenue stream - if it doesn’t grow it doesn’t compound. Gold is rejected as an investment because it doesn’t produce sprouts, meaning the steady income and systematic growth so sought after by institutional investors just isn’t there.
But gold performs two jobs that fiat currencies, or any other financial innovation, cannot do; gold acts as a safe haven in times of turmoil. Indeed, gold’s status as store of value, as money, the only currency available when yours is worthless, has come into play with respect to the drama that has been unfolding in Venezuela over the last couple of years. Hyperinflation and shortages of basic foods and medicine have led to a political crisis.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
This Leading Indicator Looks Bullish for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
There are more than a handful of things I can cite as leading indicators for the Gold price.
Ratios such as Gold against the stock market and Gold against foreign currencies are generally good leading indicators. The gold stocks and Silver can function as leading indicators at times.
Yhe yield curve and bonds can also be leading indicators.
But there is one thing I’ve never mentioned, nor written about. It makes sense in the current context though. That’s Platinum.
Platinum has a brief but clear history as a leading indicator for Gold.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices jumped to five-month highs this week, pushed higher by a bullish cocktail of supply outages, geopolitical unrest and a sputtering shale sector.
The most recent factor is the sudden eruption of the long simmering feud in Libya between rival factions. The attack on Tripoli by the Libyan National Army (LNA), a militia led by Khalifa Haftar, led to a spike in oil prices on Monday as the market priced in the possibility of supply outages.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
In The Event Of A Fiat Currency Collapse Would Gold Rocket? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Bob_Kirtley
One of the reasons given for allocating a portion of one’s investment assets to the precious metals sector such as physical gold is that gold can be considered as an insurance policy against the devaluation of paper money. On my office wall I have framed various bank notes from an 'inflationary' period of time which include the following:
2,000,000 marks, Germany 1923
100,000,000 Pengos, Hungry 1946
5,000,000 Kwanza, Angola 1995
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
The Inverted Yield Curve as a Harbinger of Higher Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
During the course of the past few weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices. In the chart above, please note the upward surges in the price of gold in the five-year periods following the two most recent yield inversions in 2000 and 2006. The first occurred with gold trading in the $300 range. It subsequently rose to the $600-650 level in 2006. The second occurred with gold priced in the $600-650 range. It subsequently rose to over $1900 per ounce in 2011 – its all-time high.