Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As President Joe Biden pushed massive new spending initiatives in his address before Congress, investors shrugged off rising inflation risk. They pushed the S&P 500 up to a new record close on Thursday.
Gold, meanwhile, continues to be capped under the $1,800 level – at least for the time being. Silver shows a slight weekly gain and trades a little over $26 per ounce.
As trading closes out for the month of April, precious metals bulls will be hoping for a more fruitful May. Although May is typically a quiet month in markets – not known for producing major crashes or price spikes – it can represent a seasonal turning point.
The old adage, “sell in May and go away” is premised on the stock market entering a seasonally weak period that typically lasts through October.
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Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started its decline without anyone’s assistance. And when the USDX takes off, that downhill tumble can only increase.
The USDX declines and the precious metals sit by idly, twiddling their thumbs. If they had the strength that’s being talked about, they should be soaring by now, or getting ready to. So, what’s their problem?
In the previous days, I discussed the signals coming from the precious metals market or for the precious metals market, as they kept on emerging, and we just received yet another round of indications. And yes, they also confirm the bearish outlook for the following weeks - or a few months.
Sunday, May 02, 2021
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.On Wednesday (Apr. 28), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy . The statement wasn’t significantly altered. The main change is that the Fed has noticed the progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, and that, in consequence, the economic outlook has improved.
Previously, the US central bank said that indicators of economic activity and employment “have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak”, while now these indicators “have strengthened”, while “the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement”. So, the Fed acknowledged the fact that the economy has significantly recovered .
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Saturday, May 01, 2021
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Although we tend to focus more on the fundamentals here at Money Metals, the technical indicators can offer important insights. Such as right now.
Many traders, investors, and momentum players will closely examine the market trend to determine if and when to enter or exit the market.
A market with a strong technical foundation can launch to dizzying heights, while a market displaying weak technicals will have a tough time putting together any sustainable upside.
The gold market has been primarily range bound for the last two months. The $1700 and $1800 levels have acted as support and resistance. Medium term, though, gold has been in a downtrend since its $2,100 high last August.
Friday, April 30, 2021
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
If you're still waiting to buy physical silver to start a stash, you're now playing financial Russian Roulette... with four rounds in the cylinder.
The chat rooms talk about buying silver and gold when they decline in price. "If silver goes down to 22, I'm all in!" "When these 'excessive' premiums drop a few dollars, I'm backing up the truck."
1) Emotion and Sentiment
Believe it or not, buying on a price drop goes against human nature.
It is a bit strange, because if you go to the store and find your favorite grass-fed beef on sale, you'll probably see how much you can stuff in the freezer. But back to the metals.
Thursday, April 29, 2021
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor discusses silver's rise and what may lie ahead.
Spot silver is trading around $26 per ounce…but you can't buy any at that price.
Instead, you'll have to pay almost 50% more.
That's right. If you want silver right now, you'll need to pay at least $35 per ounce.
If you prefer government mint coins, and you're willing to wait a month to get them, you'll have to pay upwards of $37 per 1 oz coin.
In the past year, premiums on physical silver have tripled from normal levels. Bullion dealers have been overwhelmed. Product shortages are now commonplace, with customers waiting 3 weeks or longer for shipping.
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Thursday, April 29, 2021
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Indicators are pointing to gold and mining ETFs running out of breath. They don’t seem to have what it takes to the move to the finish line.
Despite gold, silver and mining stocks’ recent corrective upswings, the precious metals are running out of steam. After bursting off of the lows – while failing to recognize that it’s a marathon and not a sprint – the precious metals’ late-week breather signals that their stamina isn’t what it used to be.
Moreover, with false breakouts and sanguine sentiment causing an adrenaline rush that’s likely to fade, the precious metals’ transformation from stalwart to sloth could leave investors feeling increasingly dejected.
Case in point: with the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) already verifying the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern – which didn’t occur until later in 2008 – the miners’ outlook is actually more bearish now than it was then.
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOOD NEWS… The rebound in gold prices from their recent low has awakened new fervor among those looking for the elusive moonshot. The ‘obvious’ signs of much higher inflation have emboldened those who are inclined to predict ever higher gold prices.
Contrastingly, the chart of GLD prices pictured below doesn’t look all that great…
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Tuesday, April 27, 2021
The Top 3 CBD Oils with Anti-Inflammatory Properties for Stopping Pain / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, April 27, 2021
Gold Stocks Upleg Accelerates / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
This young gold-stock upleg is accelerating, with fast-rising prices enticing in more capital. This sector has surged sharply to multiple major upside breakouts in recent weeks, which is starting to turn skeptics into believers. Despite their strong upside momentum being chased, gold-stock prices remain far from overbought levels warning of impending selloffs. This mounting upleg still has great room to power way higher.
Gold miners’ earnings are highly leveraged to prevailing gold prices, which drive this sector’s upleg and correction cycles. In early March as the last extended gold-stock correction was bottoming, I wrote an essay on gold’s momentum selloff. It concluded with “the gold-futures selling that ignited all this is finite, and is likely nearing exhaustion. After that, gold should rally hard.” We were positioned for a new upleg.
At that major bottoming, the trading books in our newsletters were full of fundamentally-superior gold miners’ stocks. We added and recommended them leading into that at low prices, when they were deeply out of favor. A few weeks later, I wrote another essay analyzing the latest quarterly results from the mid-tier gold miners. They are in the sweet spot for stock-price appreciation potential when gold powers higher.
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Monday, April 26, 2021
Gold's Perfect Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
US Treasuries are as much sought-out by investors in a crisis or pending crisis, but lately, Treasuries have become much less popular as a means of storing wealth.
The reason is simple: T-bills don’t offer a good return, and neither do other sovereign debt instruments. Although US Treasury yields have been climbing, owing partly to expectations of inflation, in recent weeks this trend has reversed, amid renewed concerns about the pandemic.
On Tuesday, the World Health Organization warned that global infections were reaching their highest levels, prompting many fund managers to rotate money into safe-haven bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 1.5% while the 30-year yield was reduced to 2.26%.
Looking at the 10-year chart, we see the yield starting to climb in January, reaching as high as 1.74% on March 19 before falling from 1.69% at the start of April to the current 1.5 %.
Subtract 2.6% inflation and the real yield is negative 1.1%.
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Monday, April 26, 2021
Biden’s ‘Green Reset’ Could Be Great for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As top officials around the world convene this week for a “climate summit,” President Joe Biden’s administration is planning the most radical expansion of government’s role in the economy since FDR’s New Deal.
The objective is nothing short of transitioning the entire U.S. and world economy to “clean energy” – as determined and directed by central planners.
Vice President Kamala Harris vowed, “We are not going to take it slow. We are not going to take it one step at a time. We are going to take one giant leap.”
First it was a Green New Deal, then it was a Great Reset. Now, apparently, it is a Giant Leap.
Saturday, April 24, 2021
Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted during the day, the sellling doesn‘t appear to be over. Friday‘s:
(…) selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far.
While VIX rose yesterday, it finished only a little above 17 – the tide in stocks hasn‘t turned to fear even temporarily in the least, and the current consolidation would still be one to be bought.
That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields moved higher yesterday, and defensives including tech or Down Jones Industrial Average rightly felt the pressure more than value stocks.
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Several economic indicators have surprised us on the positive side. Nevertheless, the price of gold has rebounded.Finally! The price of gold has been rising recently . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to above $1,770 on Friday (Mar. 16). This could be a promising start to the second quarter of 2021, which looks better than the first.
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Gold Price Next Key Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Gold rallied last week toward the top of a down-trending channel that has been in force since prices peaked last summer.
A breakout attempt in early January failed. The gold market subsequently slumped to a potential double-bottom low in March around $1,675/oz.
The $1,800 level now looms as a critical technical juncture.
The recent bounce could either fail around there… or gather the strength to finally break out of the multi-month corrective phase.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?
Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.
Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.
With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
As the third most-consumed metal on the planet, behind iron ore and aluminum, copper is all around us. Found naturally in the Earth’s crust, copper was among the first metals used by early humans, dating back to the 8th century, BC.
Three thousand years later homo sapiens figured out how to smelt copper from its ore, and to alloy it with tin to create bronze. Bronze was useful for tools and weapons, making it one of the most important inventions in the history of civilization.
The Copper Age
Nothing happens without copper; as it turns out, not even civilization itself. Beginning around 5,000 BC, the “Chalcolithic” (from the Greek “khalkos” for copper and “lithos” for stone) or Copper Age was a transitionary period between the Neolithic (Stone Age) and the Bronze Age.
It was during this time that copper was introduced as a material that could be worked into metal, paving the way towards the use of bronze later on.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The S&P 500 went back to relentless rallying on Friday, yet the selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far – and they‘re unlikely to get upset. Whatever consolidation comes, would be a sideways one – one to be bought.
That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields can go up or down, yet the sectoral adjustments to the downside aren‘t largely there, and that extends beyond the recently discussed financials. It concerns tech specifically, as the sector appears at a turning point – it defended gains:
(…) without too much help from the behemoths, and value stocks surged. …. Retail sales outdoing expectations and unemployment claims dropping sharply – the economic recovery is doing fine, manufacturing expands, and inflation doesn‘t yet bite. We‘re still in the reflationary stage where economic growth is higher than the rate of inflation or its expectations.
Gold loved the TLT upswing and Powell‘s assurances about not selling bonds back into the market in rememberance of eating a humble pie after the Dec 2018 hissy fit in the stock market (isn‘t this the third mandate actually, the cynics might ask). I called for the sharp gains across the precious metals board sending my open position(s) even more into the black.
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This second part of our research article related to the new Bullish price phase in Precious Metals and Miners will continue to explore the potential range and targets for higher price trends.
In the first part of this article, I discussed how precious metals have started moving higher in somewhat of a stealth mode – not really drawing a lot of attention from traders. While other commodities and market sectors continue to rally, Gold and Silver have recently been setting up a new momentum base over the past few weeks. If our research is correct, we may soon see a stronger bullish price rally in precious metals which may drive miners 3x to 5x higher as Miners have greater Alpha than precious metals.
Are The Stars Aligning For A Big Market Shift Focusing On Gold & Silver?
Another key factor is that we’ve recently shifted away from an appreciation cycle phase and into a depreciation cycle phase. This new Depreciation cycle phase suggests the US Dollar may enter a decidedly downward overall trend while the US stock market may continue to move higher with increased volatility and extended price rotation ranges. Additionally, this new Depreciation cycle phase clearly suggests precious metals will begin an upward price trend that may last well into 2027~2028 or longer.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data. Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.
All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets. After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns. Will the markets just continue to push higher and higher? Or are the market nearing some type of intermediate-term peak after rallying from November 2020? Only time will tell…
The recent move in Gold and Silver prices suggests traders and investors are starting to act more aggressively to hedge against downside market risks. My research team and I believe these upside trends may confirm an upside breakout trend in Precious Metals and Miners within 2 to 4+ weeks. You may find some of our earlier research articles related to metals, including our April 15th price targets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and our research from March 26th where we explore an impending miners breakout rally.
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