Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Copper Is Pathological and Suffers from SAD, but It Has Value / Commodities / Copper

By: The_Gold_Report

Dr. Copper may be in a supercycle, but there are serious problems. In this interview with The Gold Report, Salman Partners' Vice President of Commodity Economics Raymond Goldie explains why even though the base metal acts pathologically and has a bad case of seasonal affective disorder, these six equities are priced below their intrinsic value.

The Gold Report: You are giving a presentation at the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Current Trends in Mining Finance Conference called Diagnosing the Doctor, which refers to assessing the supply and demand problems for Dr. Copper as a way to understand what is ailing all the mining products today. Are we in a supercycle? What is the meaning of a sustainable supercycle?

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Gold - Coming Super Bubble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Casey_Research

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist

In many of my conversations with legendary speculator Doug Casey since the crash of 2008, Doug has talked about a coming super-bubble.

Everything Doug has studied about human nature, history, and economics—from Roman times right up to the present—has him absolutely convinced that the global economy is headed for high inflation, with a very real potential for hyperinflation in the US.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Down D Wave / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Gregor_Horvat

On Gold we presented  a triangle idea few weeks back, with wave C rally up to 1380/1400 resistance area. Market sold of sharply from that levels  in March and it seems that price is ready to continue lower in April as current decline looks impulsive, labeled as wave (a). With that said, we suspect that wave D will fall down to around 1240/1270 zone after a completed sub-wave (b) that may look for a top formation in the next week or two in 1320/1360 area.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Three Variables to Consider Before Investing in Gold / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: DailyGainsLetter

George Leong writes: While there continue to be many gold bugs out there, I’m not one of them—but I do see gold as a trading opportunity.

Given what we have seen so far and looking ahead, I just don’t see gold as a buy-and-hold strategy at this time. Yes, there’s money to be made, but it’s going to be for traders only.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) must really want to buy more gold; this week it repeated yet again its forecast for gold prices in 2014 to drop to $1,050 an ounce.

That might sound contradictory at first, but not when it comes to Goldman.

Jeffrey Currie, the investment bank's head of commodities research, has repeated his $1,050 target several times since last October, when he declared gold a "slam-dunk sell" along with other precious metals.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Silver and Gold Miners Still Disappoint / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver, and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Yesterday, we emphasized that the situation in the mining stock sector was bearish. We wrote the following:

One could argue that the general stock market also declined and it was this factor that caused the decline in miners. Yes, stocks declined overall, but if the mining stocks and precious metals sector in general wasn’t weak and about to decline anyway, miners would have not responded as decisively as they did. Miners underperformed gold once again on Friday and the short positions that we opened last week are already profitable.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Silver, Gold, and What Could Go Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

Richard Russell is almost 90 years old and has seen it all. He recently stated:

“My advice, as it has been, is to move to the sidelines while holding large positions in physical silver and gold. Regardless of what the markets do, silver and gold represent eternal wealth, and the bid to sleep undisturbed at night. No amount of money is worth the loss of peace of mind. The power of gold opened the American West and populated Alaska. Men have spent their lives searching for gold. You can own gold by the simple action of swapping Federal Reserve notes for the yellow metal. I advise you to do it.” Richard Russell – April 10, 2014

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Peak Coal / Commodities / Coal

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Properties

Comments about coal are usually not complimentary. Despite our dependence on it as a source of heat for electric power generation, environmentalists wish it would go away. On the other hand, advocates like to claim we have more than 110 years of coal left – “at present rates of consumption”. Both sides are overlooking crucial points. Let’s see if we can clarify the future use of coal as a fossil fuel resource.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Understanding (and Ignoring) the Media Bandwagon Against Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: James_West

For those of us who media often refers to as “gold bugs”, the fragility of popular sentiment toward not just gold and silver, but toward all investments generally, is the biggest barrier to a sane, free and fair market. The willingness of the majority to embrace opinions parroted by mainstream media and repeated dutifully by talking heads and other erstwhile shills for U.S. dollar interests simply because they are far more numerous than negative ones, and are delivered by talking heads who manage billions, is frustrating.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

When Stock Market Bubble Crashes, Take Refuge in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

An overinflated equities market could be good news for metals and mining stocks. In this interview with The Gold Report, Morning Notes Publisher Michael Berry shares two scenarios that could follow an imminent crash and four gold companies that could be perfectly positioned to take advantage of a reset credit market.

The Gold Report: Mike, you've been watching the stock market and, by extension, the precious metals markets very closely for signs of a larger equity market blow-off that could send gold higher. What makes you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ are in a bubble? What are the signs that a crash might be imminent?

Monday, April 14, 2014

Silver Price Ultimate Rally: When Paper Assets Collapse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Hubert_Moolman

The relationship between the Dow and silver has been very consistent during the last 100 years. After each of the major Dow peaks (real, not necessarily nominal peaks), we eventually had a major bottom in silver. Below, is a 100-year inflation-adjusted Dow chart:

Monday, April 14, 2014

Fourth Reversals in The Gold and Silver Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this Weekend Report I would like to look under the hood of some of the precious metals stocks indexes to see what is really taking place. We'll look at a bunch of PM stocks to get a feel for where we are in the short, intermediate and long term pictures. When one just observes an index you really don't get to see, in detail, the stocks that make up that index that could be showing some important clues to the overall big picture. For instance, there are just three or four of the biggest of the big cap precious metals stocks that account for a large percentage move for say the HUI. There are many more stocks in the index but they don't carry as much weight.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Gold and Silver Flight To Safety / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

The miners continued to get pounded along with tech momentum stocks as this week turned out badly for equities overall.

Gold is still outperforming silver, and has the taste of a minor 'flight to safety' in the price action.

The Comex warehouses continue to be a foggy snoozer, and stopped contracts are a formidable percentage of the deliverable gold category.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

For the past year, we have been saying that the charts for gold and silver are likely bottoming in a normal manner, and it takes time for a this kind of formation to complete itself. It remains the case, to date.

What is likely to cause a sharp price reversal to the upside for gold and silver? If both were allowed to simply adjust to inflation, you would see a fairly substantial rally. Given that will not be the case, what will be a/the catalyst for a precious metal [PM] change in trend?

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jason_Hamlin

Gold bugs have been forecasting a dollar collapse for years. They have been correct about the gold price, which has advanced nearly 400% in the past 12 years versus a gain of just 64% for the S&P 500. They were also correct about the dollar during the first phase of the gold bull market (2001-2008), when the USD index fell from 120 to around 72.

Friday, April 11, 2014

GDX Gold Stocks Benchmark / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

The American GDX Gold Miners ETF is slowly becoming the de-facto standard for measuring gold-stock performance.  Nearing its eighth birthday, GDX has even usurped the venerable HUI gold-stock index as this sector’s metric of choice in many circles.  While GDX has advantages and disadvantages compared to the traditional HUI, it is an excellent gold-stock benchmark.  But it still falls far short of individual stock picking.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Better Tone to Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Gold and silver prices gained modestly over the week, during which the latest FOMC minutes were released. These were generally read to be more dovish compared with the previous month.

FOMC members appear from the minutes to be confused. The previous month’s conclusion, that if it wasn’t for the weather the economy is improving and so interest rates will increase a little earlier than expected, is replaced with renewed anxiety about the outlook now the weather has improved. And who can blame them: after QE1, 2 and 3, some iffy numbers like unemployment have fallen, but where’s the price inflation? The overriding concern for all central bankers is still the prospect of deflation.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Gold and Bail-ins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

I am often asked whether or not western governments are likely to confiscate gold, and my answer has invariably been on the lines of "unlikely at the moment, because so few people own gold". However given low stock levels in western vaults and that bail-ins are on the agenda the answer to the question should be reconsidered.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Silver Price Finally Outperforms – How Bullish Is That? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion the speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver, and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

We sent out 2 Gold & Silver Trading Alerts yesterday and the situation at this time remains just as we described it in the second of them. Consequently, we will mostly quote it, illustrate the phenomena mentioned, and add more comments when necessary. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Friday, April 11, 2014

Does the Gold Price reflect true gold Demand and Supply? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

In short, no it doesn't! We will look at why not, in this article.

The Gold Fix

Despite the furore surrounding the Gold Fix [unfairly, we believe] it is a singularly determined attempt amongst commodities to set a twice daily price that does reflect demand and supply of gold, at those moments. To understand this we have to see what happens at the Fixing sessions.