Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 13, 2013
How to Beat a Gold Shortage / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
Miguel Perez-Santalla writes:Gold is sold out! Or so you might think if you miss the true nature of coin supply...
OVER the last few years, during the great investment demand for gold and silver, we have seen sporadic shortages in bullion coins.
Many people have written about these shortages as a harbinger of things to come in precious metals more widely. One of the fads is to decry supply issues in silver and now recently gold. However, the truth of the matter is less dramatic, if not quite so simple.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
Gold’s QE3 Anomaly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s biggest psychological overhang this year has been the fate of the Fed’s third quantitative-easing campaign. Gold futures traders hang on every word of Fed officials, extrapolating them into a timeline for ending QE3. This consuming obsession fueled unprecedented selling that spawned a stunning gold anomaly. But as QE3’s nature becomes more apparent, gold is due for a massive mean reversion higher.
It probably already started. Just this week, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke aggressively backtracked on his recent timeline for slowing and then ending QE3! At a speech in Massachusetts, he said the Fed is failing on both sides of its dual mandate with unemployment too high and inflation too low. Therefore the Fed ought to keep maintaining zero interest rates and buying bonds until both areas greatly improve.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
Did Gold Start to Trade Along With the Stock Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It seems that everybody’s hanging on the Fed’s every word. Yesterday the S&P 500 index climbed above the closing record of 1,669.16 reached May 21 and closed at its record high (1,675.02) as Ben Bernanke backed sustained monetary stimulus.
The index has advanced for six straight days, the longest winning streak since March 11, and is heading toward its biggest weekly gain since Jan. 4. In this way, the S&P 500 erased losses since Bernanke first suggested the Fed might curb stimulus this year.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
Shanghai Gold, Silver Volumes Surge To Records and Premiums Rise As Night Trading Begins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: GoldCore
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,275.00, EUR 976.79 and GBP 842.70 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,280.75, EUR 981.87 and GBP 848.91 per ounce.
Gold rose $34.30 or 2.74% yesterday and closed at $1,285.40/oz. Silver surged $1.03 or 5.38% and closed at $20.18.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
Why Ben Bernanke's QE3 Comments are Bullish for Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Money_Morning
Gary Gately writes: When Ben Bernanke speaks, the gold market listens - closely.
The Federal Reserve chairman's comments late Wednesday that the central bank would continue its QE3 economic stimulus for now drove gold prices higher, and they're likely to keep rising.
That's because investors need a hedge against quantitative easing, which looks like it'll be with us for the foreseeable future, and that's good news for gold prices.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
Gold Bullion and Gold Stocks Potential Upside Price Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Obviously, we can't know if the bottom is in but I'll repost a chart which is my best argument for why we can expect a big rebound over the coming months. The chart shows all of the worst bear markets in gold stocks. At the top right I've annotated the ensuing recoveries. As you can see, D (the HUI from its 2011 top to last Friday's close) is extremely close to B and C in terms of depth and duration. B and C occurred in a secular bull market and were followed by 606% and 560% gains. D is also close to E which was followed by a 205% gain in seven months. A, the 2008 collapse was followed by a 324% gain in less than three years.
Friday, July 12, 2013
Gold Sends Signals for Financial System Breakdown on Numerous Fault Lines / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the signals of breakdown, in the financial system and the Gold market. The day is near for release of gold from under the thumb of the criminal bankers. They can no longer operate in the shadows, recently in full view. The best information coming to my desk indicates that three major Western banks are under constant threat of failure overnight, every night, forcing extraordinary measures to avoid failure. They are Deutshe Bank in Germany, Barclays in London, and Citibank in New York. Judging from the ongoing defense from prosecution and cooperation (flipped) with Interpol and distraction of resources, the most likely bank to die next is Deutsche Bank. They are caught with accounting fraud and outright financial fraud over collateral shell games, pertaining to USTreasury Bonds, other sovereign bonds in Southern Europe, and OTC derivatives linked to FOREX currency contracts. D-Bank is a dead man walking.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Leaked IMF Report Shows Dangers For US Economy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dan_Amerman
A confidential internal International Monetary Fund report was recently leaked to the Wall Street Journal, with the contents later being made public by the IMF. The contents of this report have major implications for Europe, but even greater implications for the United States.
Most of the press attention is being paid to the legalities associated with the report, and revolve around what the International Monetary Fund knew, when it knew it, and whether it properly acted within its charter at various points. However, what is being overlooked is the truly explosive information that comes in the form of what the IMF admitted (in this internal report to itself) when it came to miscalculations about "austerity", and closing budget deficits.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Up Oil Down – Fundamentals Win / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Andrew_McKillop
WTI BRENT ARBITRAGE IS A RELIC
On February 8 this year Reuters reported that east hemisphere benchmark crude Brent commanded a premium of over $23 a barrel against US benchmark WTI. As of 11 July, with WTI prices soaring past $106 a barrel to reach their highest since March 2012, the premium is down 90% to $2.15 a barrel.
Although it took a while for oil traders to adjust their minds to reality, they did adjust – downwards.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Price Cycles A Low About NOW? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: DeviantInvestor
Background: Gold prices peaked in September 2011 and have dropped over one-third in the past 22 months. Sentiment by almost any measure is currently terrible. Few in the US are interested in gold (although gold is selling well in China), most have lost money (on paper) if they bought in the last two years, and the emotional pain seems considerable. It reminds me of the S&P, gold, and silver crashes in 2008-9.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Jumps Nearly $50, Correction Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds note the interesting action in gold today following the non-news from the FOMC minutes from June 18 that the Bernanke Fed is not quite ready to tighten.
(See FOMC Minutes and Economic Projections: Dissent in Both Directions; Confused?)
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Traders Urged to 'Buy Dips' as Gold Price Eases Back Bernanke Jump / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
WHOLESALE prices for gold retreated from an overnight surge to nearly $1300 per ounce in London trade Thursday morning, while world stock markets ticked higher with major government bonds and commodities.
Gold's earlier 4.0% jump came after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed that the US central bank will maintain its "highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future [because it] is what's needed."
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Major Cycle Turn Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The higher retracement in gold prompted me to re-examine the Cycles Model. In doing so, I discovered that the red Master Cycle completed 235 days on June 28. In it were 4 Trading Cycles, averaging 58.5 days each and 5 Primary Cycles, averaging 47 days each. One of the ways to determine whether this is correct is that the lesser cycles will stretch or shrink to fit the Master Cycle, which we can see in the chart.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Gold Surges $50 As Brinks Sees 55% Decline In Gold Inventories / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: GoldCore
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,280.75, EUR 981.87 and GBP 848.91 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,252.25, EUR 977.02 and GBP 840.78 per ounce.
Gold climbed $2.70 or 0.22% yesterday and closed at $1,251.10/oz. Silver fell $0.07 or 0.36% and closed at $19.15 prior to some sparks that were seen in after hours and Asian trading.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Inside the White Hot Chinese Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jan_Skoyles
In the next part of our on-going look at the global gold market we now turn our attention to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. An exchange which has received more interest of late, than any other in the world of gold and silver.
Previously we have looked at the global gold market, COMEX, and more recently the London Gold Market. The next logical focus of our investigations is the Shanghai Gold Exchange. We also have a great infographic providing you with the top figures.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Crude Oil Myths and Why WTI Is a Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The Cushing Myth
"Going along with 'drill, drill, drill' is now 'ship, ship, ship,' " said John Kilduff, energy analyst with Again Capital.” The bottleneck has been addressed in Cushing [Okla]. We're seeing those inventories plunge. We're seeing it from all the rail movement. It's having an impact, as are the pipeline reversals."
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
The Switch in Gold Offered Rates / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
Dead for almost a decade, gold offered rates are suddenly headline news...
The Markets in physical gold and silver can look very odd places at first glance. The price drop this year has been so aggressive, it's only making them odder.
Take the market for gold lending, for instance. Few people understand the difference between leasing and forward swaps. Nor should they care, not as a rule. Even if you really haven't got anything better to worry about, the two forms of gold lending look very similar net-net.
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Thursday, July 11, 2013
Something's Got to Give in the Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: The_Gold_Report
These are scary times for precious metal investors. Resource equities are in the tank and, adding insult to injury, the gold price took a precipitous fall just days before summer, notoriously one of the slowest seasons for precious metals. Heiko Ihle, an analyst with Euro Pacific Capital in Connecticut, tells The Gold Report that something has to give. And soon. Ihle sets out a likely scenario and highlights some miners that are able to produce profitably at current metals prices.
The Gold Report: Heiko, in late June gold had its biggest weekly drop in two years. What's your take on that?
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Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Palladium Showing Great Relative Strength Versus Gold in 2013 / Commodities / Palladium
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Precious metals and oil (DBO) seem to have reversed higher last week on the military coup in Egypt. Bernanke is scheduled to speak and the markets may already be pricing in some dovish statement to alleviate fears of tapering which could cause some short covering and bargain hunting. Prices of platinum (PTM) and palladium (PALL) continue to outperform other metals such as gold (GLD), silver (SLV) and copper (JJC) over the past 9 months. For many months, I have been warning my readers about the growing risks to platinum and palladium supply as labor strikes intensify in South Africa.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Rising Borrowing Costs Nudge Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Adrian_Ash
WHOLESALE prices for gold rose 1.1% in Asian and London trade Wednesday morning, nearing yesterday's 1-week highs at $1260 per ounce as the rate for leasing and borrowing gold rose further.
Silver prices rose 1.8% from an overnight low at $19.05 per ounce.
Equity markets slipped while commodities rose with major government bond prices, nudging 10-year US Treasury yields further back from Monday's 2.73% – their highest level since August 2011.