Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, July 15, 2013

The Psychology of Investing in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Submissions

Simon Popple writes: Like all things in life, when investing having a high IQ is largely beneficial. It helps you to source the right information, analyse it and “know what to do”. Quite simple. But there’s a big difference between “knowing it right” and “doing it right.”

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold versus the money supply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In a recent article I introduced the concept of allowing for the increased quantity of aboveground gold and the expansion of the quantity of dollar currency over time when trying to value gold. The purpose of this article is to explain why such an obvious adjustment is rarely contemplated and why it should be applied.

The reason no one adjusts the dollar quantity is we want to think of the dollar as having a constant value when we buy assets or goods. We describe prices of goods as rising or falling, and never the currency falling or rising. When we construct an index of house prices or stocks we do not take into account the debasement of the currency.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold Price Could Turn Bearish This Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: ForexPros

Gold recovered nicely over the last two weeks; this was expected on account of the completed five wave decline in black wave 3. If our count is correct, then the current pull-back is corrective wave 4, part of a larger incomplete decline in wave 5) of C. Note that now we can already count three legs up from the lows, which means that market could turn bearish very soon, ideally from around the 1300-1310 resistance area. However, only price can confirm a downtrend, which means a minor impulse down back to 1200. If this occurs, we will look for a decline in the 5th wave towards 1100 level or even lower. For now, the critical region stands at 1336 as wave 4 cannot trade into a wave one territory.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold Price Dead Cat Bounce – Fade The Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Gold prices have enjoyed a welcome bounce from $1200 to $1280 recently, which has some perma-bulls bringing out the famous “this is the bottom” LP yet again, a record which has been played so many times this year it must be getting close to wearing out. Whilst this minor bounce in gold is to be expected with Bernanke cooling the markets aggressive tapering expectations, a major rally is not sustainable since the Fed is not embarking on any new quantitative easing in the foreseeable future.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Is the Inflationary Phase Finally Here? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Toby_Connor

Last year I correctly spotted the three year cycle low in the CRB. I must admit the retest of that bottom has taken much longer and been far deeper than I thought it would be. However, I think the retest is over. It looks like the CRB has put in its final yearly cycle low for 2013, and that low has held above the 2012 trough.

As I have noted in the chart below, we did see a positive divergence at this year's bottom as the dollar made a marginal new high but commodities failed to confirm that new high by breaking their 2012 three year cycle low.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Gold Prices Search for That Illusive Ignition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Let me start by stating that I am a gold and silver bull and that the precious metals sector has been very good to me. However, any stock or commodity doesn’t not go up or down in a straight uninterrupted line. There are bear phases in a bull market just as there are bullish rallies in a bear market. Gold prices are in a long term bull market despite being in a bear phase at the moment. With that being our starting point then being short rather than long in the near term, makes sense to me.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Gold And Silver – Knowledge Is Not Of Value. Using It Is / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Do markets send messages? Absolutely, and they are there for anyone and everyone to see as they develop. Most people like to read news about increased demand for gold and silver, record purchases for silver eagles, etc, etc, etc. The headlines over the past several months have teemed with such information, raising expectations, but not raising the price either of gold or silver.

More recently, there is “news” about market bottoms, eminent turnarounds, a renewal of where gold and silver can reach, [once the central bankers deplete their gold stocks; once the COMEX fails, and more etcs]. Seems like not as many are paying attention to the most reliable and obvious source of all, the market price itself.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Abelications of Abenomics on Uranium and Nuclear Power / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: Richard_Mills

There's a three year downward trend in Chinese imports underway. The chart below, from Nomura Global Economics, shows the trend quite clearly.

China's exports and imports declined again in June. Exports fell 3.1 percent yoy - the most since the global financial crisis in 2008 - while imports dropped 0.7 percent. The poor June report follows a May collapse in export gains - fake invoices had inflated data for the first four months of the year, the bogus data enabled exporters to evade currency controls and bring extra money into the country. Trade growth might come in below the government's target of eight percent for the year.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

How to Beat a Gold Shortage / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

Miguel Perez-Santalla writes:Gold is sold out! Or so you might think if you miss the true nature of coin supply...

OVER the last few years, during the great investment demand for gold and silver, we have seen sporadic shortages in bullion coins.

Many people have written about these shortages as a harbinger of things to come in precious metals more widely. One of the fads is to decry supply issues in silver and now recently gold. However, the truth of the matter is less dramatic, if not quite so simple.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold’s QE3 Anomaly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s biggest psychological overhang this year has been the fate of the Fed’s third quantitative-easing campaign.  Gold futures traders hang on every word of Fed officials, extrapolating them into a timeline for ending QE3.  This consuming obsession fueled unprecedented selling that spawned a stunning gold anomaly.  But as QE3’s nature becomes more apparent, gold is due for a massive mean reversion higher.

It probably already started.  Just this week, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke aggressively backtracked on his recent timeline for slowing and then ending QE3!  At a speech in Massachusetts, he said the Fed is failing on both sides of its dual mandate with unemployment too high and inflation too low.  Therefore the Fed ought to keep maintaining zero interest rates and buying bonds until both areas greatly improve.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Did Gold Start to Trade Along With the Stock Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It seems that everybody’s hanging on the Fed’s every word. Yesterday the S&P 500 index climbed above the closing record of 1,669.16 reached May 21 and closed at its record high (1,675.02) as Ben Bernanke backed sustained monetary stimulus.

The index has advanced for six straight days, the longest winning streak since March 11, and is heading toward its biggest weekly gain since Jan. 4. In this way, the S&P 500 erased losses since Bernanke first suggested the Fed might curb stimulus this year. 

Friday, July 12, 2013

Shanghai Gold, Silver Volumes Surge To Records and Premiums Rise As Night Trading Begins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,275.00, EUR 976.79 and GBP 842.70 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,280.75, EUR 981.87 and GBP 848.91 per ounce.

Gold rose $34.30 or 2.74% yesterday and closed at $1,285.40/oz. Silver surged $1.03 or 5.38% and closed at $20.18.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Why Ben Bernanke's QE3 Comments are Bullish for Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Money_Morning

Gary Gately writes: When Ben Bernanke speaks, the gold market listens - closely.

The Federal Reserve chairman's comments late Wednesday that the central bank would continue its QE3 economic stimulus for now drove gold prices higher, and they're likely to keep rising.

That's because investors need a hedge against quantitative easing, which looks like it'll be with us for the foreseeable future, and that's good news for gold prices.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold Bullion and Gold Stocks Potential Upside Price Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Obviously, we can't know if the bottom is in but I'll repost a chart which is my best argument for why we can expect a big rebound over the coming months. The chart shows all of the worst bear markets in gold stocks. At the top right I've annotated the ensuing recoveries. As you can see, D (the HUI from its 2011 top to last Friday's close) is extremely close to B and C in terms of depth and duration. B and C occurred in a secular bull market and were followed by 606% and 560% gains. D is also close to E which was followed by a 205% gain in seven months. A, the 2008 collapse was followed by a 324% gain in less than three years.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold Sends Signals for Financial System Breakdown on Numerous Fault Lines / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the signals of breakdown, in the financial system and the Gold market. The day is near for release of gold from under the thumb of the criminal bankers. They can no longer operate in the shadows, recently in full view. The best information coming to my desk indicates that three major Western banks are under constant threat of failure overnight, every night, forcing extraordinary measures to avoid failure. They are Deutshe Bank in Germany, Barclays in London, and Citibank in New York. Judging from the ongoing defense from prosecution and cooperation (flipped) with Interpol and distraction of resources, the most likely bank to die next is Deutsche Bank. They are caught with accounting fraud and outright financial fraud over collateral shell games, pertaining to USTreasury Bonds, other sovereign bonds in Southern Europe, and OTC derivatives linked to FOREX currency contracts. D-Bank is a dead man walking.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Leaked IMF Report Shows Dangers For US Economy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dan_Amerman

A confidential internal International Monetary Fund report was recently leaked to the Wall Street Journal, with the contents later being made public by the IMF. The contents of this report have major implications for Europe, but even greater implications for the United States.

Most of the press attention is being paid to the legalities associated with the report, and revolve around what the International Monetary Fund knew, when it knew it, and whether it properly acted within its charter at various points.  However, what is being overlooked is the truly explosive information that comes in the form of what the IMF admitted (in this internal report to itself) when it came to miscalculations about "austerity", and closing budget deficits.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Gold Up Oil Down – Fundamentals Win / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Andrew_McKillop

WTI BRENT ARBITRAGE IS A RELIC
On February 8 this year Reuters reported that east hemisphere benchmark crude Brent commanded a premium of over $23 a barrel against US benchmark WTI. As of 11 July, with WTI prices soaring past $106 a barrel to reach their highest since March 2012, the premium is down 90% to $2.15 a barrel.

 Although it took a while for oil traders to adjust their minds to reality, they did adjust – downwards.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Gold Price Cycles A Low About NOW? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Background: Gold prices peaked in September 2011 and have dropped over one-third in the past 22 months. Sentiment by almost any measure is currently terrible. Few in the US are interested in gold (although gold is selling well in China), most have lost money (on paper) if they bought in the last two years, and the emotional pain seems considerable. It reminds me of the S&P, gold, and silver crashes in 2008-9.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Gold Jumps Nearly $50, Correction Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Mike_Shedlock

Inquiring minds note the interesting action in gold today following the non-news from the FOMC minutes from June 18 that the Bernanke Fed is not quite ready to tighten.

(See FOMC Minutes and Economic Projections: Dissent in Both Directions; Confused?)

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Gold Traders Urged to 'Buy Dips' as Gold Price Eases Back Bernanke Jump / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

WHOLESALE prices for gold retreated from an overnight surge to nearly $1300 per ounce in London trade Thursday morning, while world stock markets ticked higher with major government bonds and commodities.

Gold's earlier 4.0% jump came after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed that the US central bank will maintain its "highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future [because it] is what's needed."