Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Is the Gold Bull Market Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Before we are swamped with emails from gold bulls saying that there is no way the bull market is over, let us state that we are not saying the bull market is over right now, we are merely asking the question and discussing when it would be appropriate to call the end of gold’s run.

Nothing goes up forever. Even the most hardened gold bulls must admit that there will be a time that the yellow metal’s bull market will end, just as it did in 1980 and just like all great bull markets in financial markets. Therefore the purpose of this article is to put forward arguments as to when gold’s run could be over.

Monday, February 11, 2013

High Crude Oil Prices And The Threat Of Market Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

WHY DOES THE IEA WANT HIGH PRICED OIL?
The IEA, which is the "oil and energy watchdog agency" of the OECD group of countries still consuming about 50% of world total oil production and importing over 60% of world total export supplies of oil, is now actively promoting high-priced oil. It forecasts year average prices around $175 per barrel by 2017. It also militates for extreme high carbon taxes on all fossil energy, which for oil would mean a new and additional carbon tax for consumers of about $500 per tonne of CO2 emitted, that is $215 per barrel or $5 per US gallon.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Silver Rally Appears to be Fizziling Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

In the last update we called a bottom in silver the day after it put in a high-volume bull hammer early in January, and while it did reverse as expected, the short-term uptrend that developed has since stalled out in recent weeks and it now looks like it is about to reverse to the downside again.

On silver�s 6-month chart we can see how the price has advanced out of the intermediate base area that formed late in December and early in January, and also how the advance has fizzled out so that another top area appears to have developed, and with the price on the uptrend line it looks like it will break below it soon, or immediately, and in so doing reverse to the downside again. The advance out of the base was anemic and the price has fallen way short of making it to the upper boundary of the larger downtrend channel, which is an ominous sign. There is still an outside chance that it could now do so � although the latest COTs offer no comfort for bulls here.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Gold And Silver $1600 And $28 Buy Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

If Venezuela were any guide, we would have to say buy gold and silver, right here, right now!  [VENEZUELA DEVALUES FROM 4.30 TO 6.30 BOLIVARS] For those of you who hold Bernanke Bux, aka fiat paper, pay close attention.  Those Venezuelan citizens who held paper Bolivars took a 46% hit on their purchasing power. Those citizens there who held gold and silver saw an equivalent 46% jump in their holdings.  If you think it cannot happen here, you are wrong.  It already has.

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Silver Coin Dealers and the New Premium Paradigm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The local silver coin dealer may prove to be the ultimate silver price indicator.

The lower the managed paper price of silver, the more physical metal is reduced due to increased demand.  Furthermore, the higher the demand for silver, the higher the physical premium moves.

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Silver Coin Clipping in the Digital Era / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Price suppression, market controls and market manipulation have become the modern day equivalent to coin clipping in the silver market.

Monetary debasement is not a new phenomenon and has been practiced by various governments throughout the ages, either as a way for them to profit at the expense of their citizens or to pay off high levels of debt.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Is Gold GLD ETF Cannibalizing the HUI Stocks Index? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

With gold stocks languishing near lows in a desolate sentiment wasteland, investors are wondering why this sector has fallen so deeply out of favor.  One theory is capital that would have traditionally flowed into major gold producers has been diverted into the GLD gold ETF instead.  Taken to extremes, this logically leads to the conclusion gold stocks will never thrive as long as GLD exists.  Is it cannibalizing the miners?

Undoubtedly it is, so the real question is to what degree.  Since GLD’s birth in November 2004, it has grown into a wildly successful behemoth holding a staggering $71.5b worth of physical gold bullion in trust for its shareholders.  I suspect the majority of GLD purchases have been for diversifying large portfolios, for obtaining that necessary fractional exposure to the gold price.  GLD is fantastic for that.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold, Bonds and the Dollar - Short- and Long-Term Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In our previous essay we stepped back from the day-to-day price analysis in order to focus on the major event that happened recently on the silver market (the silver - JP Morgan manipulation lawsuit was dismissed) and today we would like to get back to the recent price moves, however, first, let's discuss the current situation on the bond market.

A trend is a trend until it stops. Could this be the case for bonds? Is the bond bubble about to burst? And if so, what are the implications for precious metals?

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold Surges As Soros Warns EU May Collapse Like USSR / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,669.75, EUR 1,245.15 and GBP 1,059.55 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,675.75, EUR 1,235.99 and GBP 1,065.86 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $31.57/oz, €23.68/oz and £20.04/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,720.75/oz, palladium at $743.00/oz and rhodium at $1,225/oz.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold Stocks vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold and silver stocks as a group have certainly been a disaster over the past two years. Both GDX and GDXJ are down with GDXJ leading the spiral. Yet, the metals are actually higher. Gold is up quite a bit while Silver is up marginally. Because of the volatility in this sector we can certainly choose any period to emphasize a point. However, it is becoming clear that the mining equities are struggling to outperform the metals. In studying the history of this sector (both the stocks and the metals) I’ve learned two things that I will share with you today. First, the large-cap miners have no track record of consistently outperforming Gold and second, it is possible to routinely find companies which can outperform the metals.

Friday, February 08, 2013

What Platinum Gold Ratio Major Breakout Signifies / Commodities / Platinum

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Platinum (PTM) is breaking out compared to gold (GLD) as South Africa, which supplies three quarters of world production, continues to struggle with labor issues and possible nationalization. Look for a major breakout of the platinum to gold ratio at 104. Platinum (PPLT) is about to break into new 52 week highs as demand increases due to the economic rebound in Asia, while at the same time supply is under major pressure. Observe the chart below which shows that the majority of production comes from questionable mining jurisdictions.

Friday, February 08, 2013

U.S. Gas Prices Up 1.5 Times in Four Years; Government Still Says No Inflation? / Commodities / Gas - Petrol

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation in the U.S. economy was 1.7% in 2012. As I have written in these pages, the way the official inflation rate is calculated is obsolete. Real inflation is running much higher than 1.7%.

Oil Price Information Service reports that, in 2012, $479 billion in gasoline was purchased by consumers in the U.S. economy. If you compare this number to 10 years ago, Americans are spending two and a half times more on gasoline. (Source: CNN Money, February 4, 2013) than they did in 2002. But consumer spending on gasoline didn’t go up because of increased demand; it went up because oil prices went up.

Friday, February 08, 2013

What Are the Two Hottest Precious Metals? Hint: Gold Isn’t One of Them / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: Many investors in gold mining stocks have been disappointed over the past few months, as their shares have languished. Since November’s low, gold has gone down slightly, currently trading at $1,665 an ounce. Obviously, mining stocks need the commodity to increase in price for their shares to appreciate.

However, there are two precious metals that have seen a spectacular rise in prices since November: platinum and palladium.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Silver Prices – The Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Question: What do May 2004, January 2005, August 2005, June 2006, October 2008, February 2010, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012, and December 2012 have in common?

Answer: They represented significant price lows in silver, AND those lows were confirmed by the weekly stochastic (14,3,3) indicator and the weekly TDI Trade Signal Line (13,5) as shown in the following chart of silver prices since 2004. Note the red circles showing price lows and corresponding turns in the stochastic and TDI indicators from oversold levels. (Information on the stochastic and TDI are here and here.)

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Investing in 2013: The Case for Palladium / Commodities / Palladium

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: Anyone who looks at precious metals when investing in 2013 will likely turn to gold and silver, maybe even platinum.

But there is another precious metal that is often overlooked, and should not be: palladium.

Palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters on gasoline-powered vehicles to limit the pollution these vehicles emit, just as its sister metal, platinum, is used in a similar fashion for diesel-powered vehicles.

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Gold and Silver "Trapped" in Tight Range, Volatility Near Half-Decade Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The GOLD PRICE eased $5 per ounce from a 2-day high in London trade Thursday morning, holding above $1676 as Asian stock markets closed lower but Europe held flat.

The Euro currency held onto a half-cent rise as the European Central Bank kept its key lending rate at a record low of 0.75% for the 15th month in a row.

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Economic Winter Could Thaw Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: The_Gold_Report

Ian Gordon has said it before: we're on the edge of an economic maelstrom that will breathe new life into the gold exploration industry. While his cautionary tales may be beginning to sound like the boy who cried wolf, Gordon, the founder and chairman of Longwave Group, gives some persuasive evidence to support his doomsday scenario for the greater market. In this Gold Report interview, Gordon talks about what he forecasts as an unprecedented period of growth and investment in gold, which is just about to get underway as the market sinks.

The Gold Report: Ian, you believe that 2013 is likely to be an economic and financial disaster. But you have been saying similar things for years. Why is 2013 likely to be different?

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Silver Price Manipulation, the Case Against JP Morgan / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Every now and then we receive questions about JP Morgan and the allegations that the company suppresses the price of silver. In our Q&A section we answered some of those concerns by replying to a question about JP Morgan and silver manipulation. In that answer we wrote the following:

Despite a (...)lawsuit accusing JPMorgan and HBSC of jointly controlling " over 85 percent of commercial net short positions ", a position inherited mainly from the liquidated Bear Stearns business, the CFTC seems inclined to drop any case it has against JPMorgan , making this the third case in a row that has not found proof of wrongdoing.

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Gold Miners vs. the S&P - Surprising Conclusions / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Casey_Research

We often hear the claim that gold producers have not met investors' expectations for the past couple years. While there are many potential reasons for this, one explanation for their underperformance lies in the fact that producers diluted their share structures, leaving shareholders with smaller gains than they would have otherwise harvested.

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Gold Lease Rates - What Changed in Swiss Gold Banking? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

What the Swiss banks' move away from unallocated accounts says about gold, and about banking...

Imagine you could sell someone something, but keep ownership of it, and then use it yourself, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.

You could lend it out for interest, say, or raise loans of your own by pledging it as collateral. Or even sell it to raise cash when things get tight. And if your business fails entirely, the "owner" will just have to cue up with all of your other creditors, and be thankful with whatever small change is paid out by the courts.