Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Gold, Silver Fail to Recover Losses Despite Talk of Currency Wars and Nuclear Testing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Ben_Traynor

U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices failed to recover yesterday's lost ground Tuesday morning, hovering below $1650 per ounce, as stocks and commodities eased higher and the Euro gained against the Dollar, following news of a fresh nuclear test in North Korea and denials from policymakers that a currency war is taking place among major economies.

Like gold, silver also failed to make up ground lost yesterday, trading below $31 throughout this morning.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Two Reasons to Expect Greater Volatility in Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors, A combination of rising demand and tension in the Middle East means oil prices will continue to climb.

How this plays out in the short term will have a primary impact on the profitability of oil sector investments. One conclusion is already clear. This will once again be a volatile market.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Fears aside, the Black Gold Will Prevail / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Brentt Taylor  writes: As snowstorms rage in the U.S. Northeast, heating oil rose to its highest level in almost four months prompting discussions and predictions over the likelihood of heating oil becoming an increasingly sought-after commodity in the next few years.

Such talks have also impelled speculations about global warming being a real threat in the near future. If the cooling trend of the past few years will continue, it is unlikely that heating oil will become a superfluous commodity any time soon. If the cold winters of the past decade persist, the demand for oil will intensify and consequently push oil prices up.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Crash Course In Short Term Gold & Silver Price Forecasting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldSilverWorlds

With the current uncertain economic and monetary situation, the financial markets are extremely difficult to play. The fundamental case for some “assets” is crystal clear. It should not surprise any reader how strong the case is for physical gold and silver is. Apart from the long term investment, one could also use a smaller amount of his assets to play the ups and downs. As the chart shows, the differences between intermediate tops and bottoms are significant enough to consider shorter term investing, let’s call it trading.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Gold Triggers Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Toby_Connor

The weekly stochastic and TDI indicators produced a "buy-signal" in the gold market (and various ETFs for gold) in January 2013. The most profitable "buy signals" occurred when the TDI was low and gold had just finished a large percentage correction, such as in late 2008. The January 2013 "buy signal" is similar to the "buy-signal" from 2008. Within the trend channel that stretches back to 2005, there is room for gold to move higher toward $3,500 per ounce within the next two years. Gold probably will not rally that high in 2013, but new highs above $1,900 seem very likely, based on gold's price history, the current "buy-signal," and the financial traumas in the world that will cause additional "money printing" and consumer price inflation.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Ron Paul: “6,000 Years of History, Gold Is Always Money, Paper Money Fails” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,663.50, EUR 1,242.16 and GBP 1,057.94 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,669.75, EUR 1,245.15 and GBP 1,059.55 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $31.24/oz, €23.40/oz and £19.99/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,720.75/oz, palladium at $748.00/oz and rhodium at $1,220/oz.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Is the Gold Bull Market Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

Before we are swamped with emails from gold bulls saying that there is no way the bull market is over, let us state that we are not saying the bull market is over right now, we are merely asking the question and discussing when it would be appropriate to call the end of gold’s run.

Nothing goes up forever. Even the most hardened gold bulls must admit that there will be a time that the yellow metal’s bull market will end, just as it did in 1980 and just like all great bull markets in financial markets. Therefore the purpose of this article is to put forward arguments as to when gold’s run could be over.

Monday, February 11, 2013

High Crude Oil Prices And The Threat Of Market Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

WHY DOES THE IEA WANT HIGH PRICED OIL?
The IEA, which is the "oil and energy watchdog agency" of the OECD group of countries still consuming about 50% of world total oil production and importing over 60% of world total export supplies of oil, is now actively promoting high-priced oil. It forecasts year average prices around $175 per barrel by 2017. It also militates for extreme high carbon taxes on all fossil energy, which for oil would mean a new and additional carbon tax for consumers of about $500 per tonne of CO2 emitted, that is $215 per barrel or $5 per US gallon.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Silver Rally Appears to be Fizziling Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

In the last update we called a bottom in silver the day after it put in a high-volume bull hammer early in January, and while it did reverse as expected, the short-term uptrend that developed has since stalled out in recent weeks and it now looks like it is about to reverse to the downside again.

On silver�s 6-month chart we can see how the price has advanced out of the intermediate base area that formed late in December and early in January, and also how the advance has fizzled out so that another top area appears to have developed, and with the price on the uptrend line it looks like it will break below it soon, or immediately, and in so doing reverse to the downside again. The advance out of the base was anemic and the price has fallen way short of making it to the upper boundary of the larger downtrend channel, which is an ominous sign. There is still an outside chance that it could now do so � although the latest COTs offer no comfort for bulls here.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Gold And Silver $1600 And $28 Buy Targets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

If Venezuela were any guide, we would have to say buy gold and silver, right here, right now!  [VENEZUELA DEVALUES FROM 4.30 TO 6.30 BOLIVARS] For those of you who hold Bernanke Bux, aka fiat paper, pay close attention.  Those Venezuelan citizens who held paper Bolivars took a 46% hit on their purchasing power. Those citizens there who held gold and silver saw an equivalent 46% jump in their holdings.  If you think it cannot happen here, you are wrong.  It already has.

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Silver Coin Dealers and the New Premium Paradigm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The local silver coin dealer may prove to be the ultimate silver price indicator.

The lower the managed paper price of silver, the more physical metal is reduced due to increased demand.  Furthermore, the higher the demand for silver, the higher the physical premium moves.

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Silver Coin Clipping in the Digital Era / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Price suppression, market controls and market manipulation have become the modern day equivalent to coin clipping in the silver market.

Monetary debasement is not a new phenomenon and has been practiced by various governments throughout the ages, either as a way for them to profit at the expense of their citizens or to pay off high levels of debt.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Is Gold GLD ETF Cannibalizing the HUI Stocks Index? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

With gold stocks languishing near lows in a desolate sentiment wasteland, investors are wondering why this sector has fallen so deeply out of favor.  One theory is capital that would have traditionally flowed into major gold producers has been diverted into the GLD gold ETF instead.  Taken to extremes, this logically leads to the conclusion gold stocks will never thrive as long as GLD exists.  Is it cannibalizing the miners?

Undoubtedly it is, so the real question is to what degree.  Since GLD’s birth in November 2004, it has grown into a wildly successful behemoth holding a staggering $71.5b worth of physical gold bullion in trust for its shareholders.  I suspect the majority of GLD purchases have been for diversifying large portfolios, for obtaining that necessary fractional exposure to the gold price.  GLD is fantastic for that.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold, Bonds and the Dollar - Short- and Long-Term Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In our previous essay we stepped back from the day-to-day price analysis in order to focus on the major event that happened recently on the silver market (the silver - JP Morgan manipulation lawsuit was dismissed) and today we would like to get back to the recent price moves, however, first, let's discuss the current situation on the bond market.

A trend is a trend until it stops. Could this be the case for bonds? Is the bond bubble about to burst? And if so, what are the implications for precious metals?

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold Surges As Soros Warns EU May Collapse Like USSR / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,669.75, EUR 1,245.15 and GBP 1,059.55 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,675.75, EUR 1,235.99 and GBP 1,065.86 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $31.57/oz, €23.68/oz and £20.04/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,720.75/oz, palladium at $743.00/oz and rhodium at $1,225/oz.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Gold Stocks vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold and silver stocks as a group have certainly been a disaster over the past two years. Both GDX and GDXJ are down with GDXJ leading the spiral. Yet, the metals are actually higher. Gold is up quite a bit while Silver is up marginally. Because of the volatility in this sector we can certainly choose any period to emphasize a point. However, it is becoming clear that the mining equities are struggling to outperform the metals. In studying the history of this sector (both the stocks and the metals) I’ve learned two things that I will share with you today. First, the large-cap miners have no track record of consistently outperforming Gold and second, it is possible to routinely find companies which can outperform the metals.

Friday, February 08, 2013

What Platinum Gold Ratio Major Breakout Signifies / Commodities / Platinum

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Platinum (PTM) is breaking out compared to gold (GLD) as South Africa, which supplies three quarters of world production, continues to struggle with labor issues and possible nationalization. Look for a major breakout of the platinum to gold ratio at 104. Platinum (PPLT) is about to break into new 52 week highs as demand increases due to the economic rebound in Asia, while at the same time supply is under major pressure. Observe the chart below which shows that the majority of production comes from questionable mining jurisdictions.

Friday, February 08, 2013

U.S. Gas Prices Up 1.5 Times in Four Years; Government Still Says No Inflation? / Commodities / Gas - Petrol

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation in the U.S. economy was 1.7% in 2012. As I have written in these pages, the way the official inflation rate is calculated is obsolete. Real inflation is running much higher than 1.7%.

Oil Price Information Service reports that, in 2012, $479 billion in gasoline was purchased by consumers in the U.S. economy. If you compare this number to 10 years ago, Americans are spending two and a half times more on gasoline. (Source: CNN Money, February 4, 2013) than they did in 2002. But consumer spending on gasoline didn’t go up because of increased demand; it went up because oil prices went up.

Friday, February 08, 2013

What Are the Two Hottest Precious Metals? Hint: Gold Isn’t One of Them / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: Many investors in gold mining stocks have been disappointed over the past few months, as their shares have languished. Since November’s low, gold has gone down slightly, currently trading at $1,665 an ounce. Obviously, mining stocks need the commodity to increase in price for their shares to appreciate.

However, there are two precious metals that have seen a spectacular rise in prices since November: platinum and palladium.

Friday, February 08, 2013

Silver Prices – The Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Question: What do May 2004, January 2005, August 2005, June 2006, October 2008, February 2010, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012, and December 2012 have in common?

Answer: They represented significant price lows in silver, AND those lows were confirmed by the weekly stochastic (14,3,3) indicator and the weekly TDI Trade Signal Line (13,5) as shown in the following chart of silver prices since 2004. Note the red circles showing price lows and corresponding turns in the stochastic and TDI indicators from oversold levels. (Information on the stochastic and TDI are here and here.)