Thursday, August 31, 2017

Boomers are Turning 71 - Setting off a Perfect Storm for Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Few investors understand the magnitude of the looming demographic crisis and its ramifications.

The first Baby Boomers turned 70 last year. At the same time, the US fertility rate is at its lowest point since records began in 1909.

This disastrous combination means by 2030, those aged 65 and older will make up over 20% of the population.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

3 Reasons The Stock Market Is Nowhere Near A Crisis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Bearish investors see many reasons to be cautious now and little grounds for optimism. Others are stalwartly bullish. Naturally, I have friends on both sides of this debate, people with deep knowledge and experience.

Problem is, they can’t all be right. The stock market will move up or down (or possibly sideways), and some of us will be wrong.

Now, let’s see what the bulls have to say.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– 4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders
– Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders
– Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX
– History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)
– You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen
– Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Stock Market New Record Highs Ahead Or Just Bounce? S&P 500 Above 2,450 Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: The S&P 500 index may slightly extend its short-term advance today. However, we can see some technical overbought conditions that may lead to a downward correction. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market again, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is bearish, as we expect downward correction. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish:

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Has the EURO Topped? / Currencies / Euro

By: SurfCity

At least in the short term anyway? Remember, that based on my USD update from yesterday, I am still looking for a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the USD. The Dollar has rallied hard off yesterdays low and as you would expect, the EURO is showing signs of topping here.

I have taken a trade in shorting the EURO with the EUO ETF but have not yet made this a portfolio trade as it is risky here but here are some charts on both the EURO ($XEU) and EUO.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Are You Ready to Profit From the US Dollar Collapse? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The US Dollar collapse has already triggered a major move in inflation plays.

To whit, Gold has broken its SEVEN-YEAR downtrend.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Coming US Dollar Collapse and How It Will Impact Portfolios / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

Yesterday we talked about the US Dollar ($USD) dropping below critical support.

By quick way of review, here’s the key chart. As you can see, the $USD staged a large bull market run in 2014 as the Fed wound down its QE program. The greenback was then range bound for three years until this month when it broke down in a big way.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Swamp Strikes Back / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Browne

On August 21st many Americans witnessed the moon cast a historic but short-lived shadow across the United States. One day later, President Trump reversed his previously stated position on the 16 year old Afghan War, thereby eclipsing the possibility that the United States would finally come to its senses and rethink a failed strategy that is likely to fail for years, perhaps decades, to come. The abrupt change, in what had been a central plank in candidate Trump’s appeal to voters thirsting for change in American foreign policy, came hard after the departure of Steve Bannon from the White House. As a self-avowed nationalist, Bannon had represented a true break in interventionist Republican thinking that had entangled the United States in intractable conflicts around the globe. To put an exclamation point, Sebastian Gorka, the last remaining proponent of the Bannon perspective, was forced out of the White House. The counter-revolution appears to be complete.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Stock Market Overhead Resistance Being Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX rallied above the trendline to a 60.8% retracement of Wave [i], reinforcing my original Wave structure. The Cycles Model suggests a reversal may be imminent. It may occur at or near Trump’s speech this afternoon. This may be the last opportunity to add short positions.

We may see an extension to 2453.00 (61.8% value) or slightly higher.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.

Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.

Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Trump could be planning a radical “reboot” of the U.S. dollar
– Currency reboot will see leading nations devalue their currencies against gold
– New gold price would be nearly 8 times higher at $10,000/oz
– Price based on mass exit of foreign governments and investors from the US Dollar
– US total debt now over $80 Trillion – $20T national debt and $60T consumer debt
– Monetary reboot or currency devaluation seen frequently – even modern history
– Buy gold eagles, silver eagles including monster boxes and gold bars 
– Have a 10% allocation to gold, smaller allocation to silver

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Dueling Technicals on Amazon AMZN / Companies / Amazon

By: Mike_Paulenoff

An analysis of Amazon (AMZN)'s charts on Monday identified a near-term potentially bullish formation juxtaposed against a tricky, potentially dangerous intermediate-term set up.

From a near-term perspective, AMZN on its hourly chart appeared to be putting in a "falling wedge"-type pattern (the opposite of a rising wedge), which usually represents a trend-ending formation. In this case, it would be the conclusion of the correction off of the July 27 high at 1083.20 to Monday's low at 942.25.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

President Trump and ... the Interest Rate Yield Curve? Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Why Trump Should Literally Start Selling American Blood To China / Companies / Healthcare Sector

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : In June, the US ran a $32.6 billion “trade in goods” deficit with China. That’s the difference between our imports from China ($42.3 billion) and our exports to China ($9.7 billion), according to the US Census Bureau.

That sounds terrible, but it’s really not if you look at the big picture.

The Trump administration doesn’t like trade deficits, so they must be reduced or eliminated. To do that, we need Chinese consumers to buy more “Made in the USA” products.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

A Very Good Day for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Clive_Maund

What happened yesterday in the gold market was VERY bullish. After looking like it was topping out at its April and June highs, gold surged through them. While we were wary of it topping out here like a lot of traders, we definitely have a handle on the big picture which couldn't be more positive, with the dollar set to crash as it heads towards loss of its reserve currency status, and a slowly dawning awareness among the hordes of fools holding paper denominated gold, that the only thing that matters is physical possession—if you own paper gold, you could find yourself well and truly out in the cold. You can wave your piece of paper in the air and demand delivery, only to be bluntly informed "Sorry, mate—none left—go ask the Chinese if they'll let you have a little".

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Alert: Gold Price Breaks Out to New 2017 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Gold’s naysayers and doubters came out in full force earlier this summer as sentiment reached its nadir. The mid-year pullback in prices did, too.

There can be no doubt about it now – gold has broken out of its summer doldrums. On Monday, the yellow metal finally broke through the longstanding $1,300/oz resistance zone to make a new high for the year at $1,316.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

SPX Futures Challenging Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures are down to challenge the Cycle Bottom support at 2430.17 and the Head & Shoulders neckline at 2417.35 with a morning low in the futures at 2421.25. It is currently retesting the Cycle Bottom as resistance and may now have the ability to break the neckline. Since this Cycle has nearly taken 4.3 days (from the 2454.77 high), it is my opinion that this Cycle may take up to 8.6 days.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Gold Price Surges 2.6% After Jackson Hole and North Korean Missile Launch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold surges as N. Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan
– Safe haven buying sees gold break out to 10-month high after Jackson Hole and rising North Korea risk of attack on Guam
– South Korea’s air force dropped eight MK 84 bombs near Seoul;  simulating the destruction of North Korea’s leadership
– Gold rises from $1,291 to $1,325; Silver surges 3.2% from $17.05 to $17.60
– Volatility as seen in VIX surges as stocks fall; FTSE -1.1%

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Discounted Mortgages Make Better Deals for First Time Home Buyers / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

First-time buyers looking for a mortgage may instinctively opt for a fixed rate deal to give them the peace of mind of knowing their monthly repayments won’t change even if base rate rises. However, research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows that first-time buyers may be significantly better off if they were to opt for a discounted variable rate deal instead, as the average fixed rate at 95% loan-to-value (LTV) is 0.82% more expensive than the current average discounted variable rate.