Saturday, September 23, 2017
Stocks, Gold, Dollar, Bitcoin Markets Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
As always, I will be adding to this over the weekend and should have all my updates done by 2pm PST on Sunday so please check back then.
Stocks (SPX):
Cycle Status/Outlook: Short term bullish after another new ATH on the SPX this week on day 21. We are slightly lower on day 23 but a 21 day high shifts the odds in favor of a right translated cycle that will make a higher low.
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Saturday, September 23, 2017
Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next?
On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that "Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion."
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Saturday, September 23, 2017
A Triangle Consolidation in the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
I5t appears that a Triangle has formed at the Micro level in the SPX. That explains the week-long sideways consolidation that we’ve seen…and the reason why we haven’t seen the trendline get broken, as well. We may see a pop on Monday morning, so see you there!
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Saturday, September 23, 2017
How Will We Be Affected by a Series of Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
The current federal funds rate is 1.00% – 1.25%. The Fed started raising interest rates in December 2015, when they were at a historic low of 0.25%. Since then, 4 rate hikes have been implemented, each valued at 25-basis points. Today, the federal funds rate (FFR) is inching towards the 1.25% – 1.50% level. The average interest rate in the US between 1971 and 2017 was 5.77%. It peaked at 20% in 1980 and dropped to an all-time low of 0.25% after the global financial crisis of 2008. Interest rates are especially important when it comes to monetary policy.
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Saturday, September 23, 2017
Stock Market's "Proper Value" Is Nonsense -- Here's Why / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
See why there is no reliable standard of value for the stock market
Should investors rely on traditional ways of evaluating the stock market's "proper value"? You might be surprised at what these four charts show.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
Fed Quantitative Tightening Impact on Stocks and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
This week’s landmark Federal Open Market Committee decision to launch quantitative tightening is one of the most-important and most-consequential actions in the Federal Reserve’s entire 104-year history. QT changes everything for world financial markets levitated by years of quantitative easing. The advent of the QT era has enormous implications for stock markets and gold that all investors need to understand.
This week’s FOMC decision to birth QT in early October certainly wasn’t a surprise. To the Fed’s credit, this unprecedented paradigm shift had been well-telegraphed. Back at its mid-June meeting, the FOMC warned “The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year”. Its usual FOMC statement was accompanied by an addendum explaining how QT would likely unfold.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
Bitcoin & Blockchain: All Hype or Part of a Financial Revolution? / Currencies / BlockChain
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, says Bitcoin is a fraud – likening it to the 17th century tulip bubble – that will eventually blow up. He said he’d fire any trader who traded it.Ron Insana, CNBC contributor, says Bitcoin is in a bubble, with investor enthusiasm driving it to a new fever pitch. He’s cited several reasons why it will fail.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
Bitcoin after Extreme Volume / Currencies / Bitcoin
Bitcoin is on the Bloomberg Markets main page again. This is yet another sign of the currency becoming yet another asset class. In the article, we read:
Bitcoin is looking increasingly likely to splinter off again in November, creating a third version of the world’s largest cryptocurrency as miners and developers pursue separate visions to scale its rapidly growing marketplace.
Major industry players, including the bitcoin investor Roger Ver known as “Bitcoin Jesus” for proselytizing on behalf of the digital currency, say consensus between opposing camps looked increasingly unlikely. That opinion was echoed by some of the biggest mining pool operators and also programmers -- known as “Core” developers -- who were instrumental to developing the infrastructure of the original bitcoin network.
Friday, September 22, 2017
How We Made Money Without Knowing It / Personal_Finance / Earnings
Thank goodness!After 17 long years, the median U.S. household income has finally broke above the previous record set in 1999. According to a Census Bureau report released last week, median income increased 3.2% in 2016, to $59,039 after inflation.
That eclipsed the last record of $58,665 set at the end of the 20th century.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
– £1 trillion crisis looms as pensions deficit and consumer loans snowball out of control
– UK pensions deficit soared by £100B to £710B, last month
– £200B unsecured consumer credit “time bomb” warn FCA
– 8.3 million people in UK with debt problems
– 2.2 million people in UK are in financial distress
– ‘President Trump land’ there is a savings gap of $70 trillion
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per dayp>
Friday, September 22, 2017
Will North Korea Boost Gold Prices? Part I / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
In August, tensions between the U.S. and North Korea rose after Trump’s famous remarks that threats to the U.S. from Pyongyang would be met with “fire and fury”. The relations between these two countries have not been so tense for a long time. What does it imply for the gold market?
Let’s start with the no-brainer: the conflict about Korean Peninsula is a very old one. It implies that investors are used to it and will not panic after the first dramatic news. Some level of hostile relationships and geopolitical conflicts between countries are inevitable and already priced into the yellow metal. The best example may be the Cold War, i.e. a state of geopolitical tensions between two nuclear powers, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which lasted from 1947 to 1991, but it did not support the gold prices all the time. Actually, the yellow metal entered a bear market in the 1980s.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
South Korea Dispute Throws Wrench In US War Plans / Politics / South Korea
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Last May at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, I predicted that the crisis in North Korea would likely lead to war. The crisis ensued, but war has not broken out.
With a top US official saying the Pentagon might have to handle this crisis, it’s time to review what has happened and whether war is really an option now.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
GBPUSD Facing Major Resistance Trend Line On Weekly Chart / Currencies / British Pound
GBPUSD extended its upside movement from 1.1946 to as high as 1.3652, facing a major resistance trend line from 1.7190 to 1.5016 on its weekly chart. As long as the price is below the trend line, the bounce from 1.1946 could be treated as consolidation of the long term downtrend from 1.7190, and another fall could be expected after the consolidation.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
USDJPY Leads the way for a Resurgent Greenback / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
A very good evening to one and all.
Despite a shock to the system last night,
the sharp USD rally has not invalidated any of the operating wave counts.
Although it is a picture of what is to come for the USD in the near future,
The short term wave counts are pointing to one last push up before completing the larger structures.
Friday, September 22, 2017
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin & Ethereum Short Term Analysis / Currencies / BlockChain
The leading cryptocurrencies BTCUSD & ETHUSD rallied up from 09/15 low in a 3 waves Zigzag structure which ended wave (1) as part of an expected 5 waves diagonal to the upside. Both instruments is now doing a short term pullback in wave (2) as a double three toward equal legs area ($3740 – $3549 for bitcoin) and ($269 – $253 for Ethereum) where it should resume higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.
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Friday, September 22, 2017
Day Trading Guide for Dummies / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
Currency dealing – the act of dealing economical device within the same day, or even frequently over the course of a day, using little cost goes – can be a successful activity. But it can also be an unsafe activity for those who are new at it or who don't conform to a well-thought out method. Let's take a look at some common day dealing concepts and common day dealing techniques, shifting along from primary guidelines you need to know to innovative techniques that can help you understand how to day business like a pro. Day trading pour les nuls You Need to KnowRead full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 22, 2017
Gold: Often, Simple Forecasting Tools Are All You Need - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Gold: Often, Simple Forecasting Tools Are All You Need - VideoRead full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Follow the Money - Why the Stock Market's Up and Why it Won't Last / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, founders of Seabridge Gold, discuss why the stock market's been up and why it likely won't last. During the last week, the major market indices rallied again. There was no news to account for it. But there was a reason.
The U.S. Treasury has been up against its debt ceiling since March 15 when the ceiling was re-imposed. Since then, there has been no net new issuance from the Treasury. The Treasury has run down its cash balances and borrowed internally from its own resources, which are not subject to the ceiling. This period has been very helpful to the financial markets. With the federal government not selling any net new supply of securities—just rolling the maturing stuff over—the markets have been flush with cash that would otherwise have been absorbed by the government.
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Thursday, September 21, 2017
Why US Missile Defense Won’t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack / Politics / North Korea
BY GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES : The prospect that North Korea could fire missiles at its enemies has shed light on ways potential targets could defend themselves. And when it comes to missiles, some say the best defense is more missiles.
Ballistic missile defense (BMD) seems like a natural antidote, and though these systems have been in use for some time—and some have even intercepted their targets—the security they promise could hardly be considered absolute.
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Thursday, September 21, 2017
Blockchain Gaining Fast Acceptance in Russia / Currencies / BlockChain
By John Bonar : Russian interest in cryptocurrencies is blossoming with the endorsement of the country’s president Vladimir Putin. While some within the country’s financial sector, including Bank of Russia chairwoman, Elvira Nabiullina, remain cautious, others are embracing the crypto currency phenomena enthusiastically.Read full article... Read full article...