Wednesday, August 02, 2017

What Is Widespread Excessive Stock Market Optimism Indicating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data.

I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish!

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Greenspan Warns Moving Into “Stagflation Not Seen Since the 1970s” / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldCore

– Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation
– “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s”
– This will not be “good for asset prices”
– 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3%
– Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’
– “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range
– Inflation will not stay at historically low levels
– Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value”
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

This Oil Price Rally Has Reached Its Limit / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Last week, crude oil rallied the most so far this year, gaining more than 8 percent, or $4 per barrel. Oil traders are much more optimistic than they were just a month ago, and the market is on the upswing. However, the rally could run out of steam in the not-so-distant future, a familiar result for those paying attention to the oil market in the last few years.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

DOW Jones and EURUSD Changing Fortunes Ahead.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change. USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil Inventories.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

USDCAD Broke Below 1.2460 Support / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Franco_Shao

USDCAD recently broke below an important support level at the May 2016 low of 1.2460 and reached as low as 1.2413, confirming that the long term downtrend from the January 2016 high of 1.4689 had resumed.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Bitcoin Hits New Combined All-Time High Above $3,000 After Bitcoin Fork / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Many people considered today to be the most important day for bitcoin since its creation in 2009.

It was the first serious fork of the bitcoin chain into two different coins. Many people, including ourselves, were preparing for major volatility. And some people, like Mike Adams, said it was the death of bitcoin.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Precious Metals Break Out Now Or In A Few Weeks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

This past week, the GDX has finally taken out its resistance at 22.65, and provided us with some semblance of an impulsive structure off the recent lows. However, the micro structure it is not the cleanest of structures, similar to silver.

Yet, as long as the metals do not break below their July lows, we are again set up to see a massive break out. While I still cannot tell you if the metals will take advantage of that set up, as they failed to do so the last time we had a break out set up, if they do not take advantage of this set up within the next few weeks, we could see a major failure to launch take hold, and drop us lower than the bulls would care for. So, it seems it’s time for the metals to step up.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Why Slumping Auto Sales May Not Say What You Think They Say / Companies / US Auto's

By: F_F_Wiley

July auto sales (released today and charted below) remained weak and should trigger a few recession forecasts. In fact, over the past few months we’ve read about half a dozen commentaries linking the recent plunge in auto sales to an imminent recession. And we understand the reasoning, but we’ve yet to buy into it.

We agree that car sellers face a degree of demand saturation while potential buyers suffer from credit saturation, or at least that’s what the data seem to show. We also agree that the saturation twins tend to be late-cycle indicators. But we’d like to add another possible explanation for slowing auto sales, one that yields a different conclusion about recession risks.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Gold and Silver Seasonality an Advantage to Seasoned Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Many investors rightly believe that the gold and silver markets are moved most by geopolitical events, monetary policy, shifting economic paradigms such as inflation or deflation, and a number of other factors - most of which are covered regularly in this newsletter. Few know that there is another aspect to gold and silver's price behavior and that is its seasonality, as shown in the charts immediately below. Seasoned physical precious metals investors often time their purchases during the so-called "summer doldrums" when business is quiet and prices are down. It doesn't always work out that the price trends higher in the second half of the year. (Last year, for example, gold hit its peak of the year in July – the heart of the doldrums.) Given a 20-year history, though, it happens enough to warrant attention. Here we are in August – the month, as you can see, that offers a last chance before we move into the fall and winter busy season and its traditional predisposition to higher prices.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Trump, the CIA and the Yokeldom / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The western world is mired in a mile-deep political crisis and nary a soul seems to notice, or rather: everyone just sees their own little preferred echochamber tidbits of it. Which is not a good thing, because that crisis is bound to trigger other bigger crises that are much more damaging. And I’m sorry to say it, but Donald Trump is not your main problem. Not even close.

The main problem is the collapse of western political systems. While that is what brought Trump to power in the first place, he didn’t cause the collapse. The collapse is also what ‘gave you’ Brexit, and Trump didn’t cause that either. Moreover, in the next step, on the far end of all this, Trump may well be the only thing standing between you and CIA warfare. I know, who wants to hear that, right?! Who’s ready for that next step?

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

What a US Dollar Rebound Means for Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The decline in the US$ index in 2017 has been relentless. From a high of nearly 104 at the end of 2016, the US$ index has steadily declined to as low as 93.00. While this has certainly fueled the strength in precious metals, it has not been able to lift the sector as much as typically expected. That is because Gold’s performance relative to other assets has been weak and much weaker than in 2016. Friday Gold broke above key resistance of $1260/oz but it remains below its 2017 highs as the US$ index tests support amid a very oversold condition and negative sentiment. Simply put, Gold will have to prove itself in real terms if it is going to hold its ground or breakout as the US$ begins a likely bounce.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

GBP/USD - Will Currency Bulls Break above Long-term Resistances? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although GBP/USD moved higher once again earlier today, currency bulls approached two very important resistances on their way to higher levels. Will they be strong enough to push the exchange rate above them?

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Bitcoin in Trading Range / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The BTC-e debacle continues with the U.S. government seizing the exchange’s website. Now, BTC-e has its data center seized by the FBI. On CoinDesk, we read:

(…) in a statement on the Bitcoin Talk forum (that was tweeted out via its official account), representatives for the exchange issued new comments, including a pledge to return users' funds.

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Alton Towers Discount Voucher Half Price Entry ANY TIME, No Pre-Booking! / Personal_Finance / Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

It's the summer holidays once more and so once it stops raining many UK families will be off on day trips to the UK's various theme parks, with Alton Towers definitely at the top of the list especially for the 12's and over's.

Whilst there are the usual promotions on the breakfast cereals running, such as Adults go free with a paying child. The only problem with these offers are that according to Alton Towers to be a child you have to be under 12!

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– What investors can learn from the Japanese art of Kintsukuroi or Kintsugi – art of repairing broken pottery with gold
– Investors and savers can protect their savings with gold
– Savers and investors are being punished by negative to low interest rates
– Global debt levels, stock bubbles and reduced liquidity will lead to crisis
– Reinforce cracks with gold prior to money pot shatters

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

A Reversal Coming To U.S. Major Stock Indexes? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Markets Are Virtually Risk-Free / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

For the last year, I have been looking for what we classify as a wave (3) to strike the 2500SPX region. And, now, we are getting quite close.

Meanwhile, this rally has brought out two camps of market expectations at this juncture, both of which I believe are wearing blinders. We read about those who believe the markets basically have no limit to their upside, and are "virtually risk-free," and we read those who have "known" that the market will imminently crash during this entire 40% rally since February 2016.

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Can Germany Be Made Great Again? / Politics / Germany

By: Antonius_Aquinas

When Germany Was Great!

Ever since the start of the deliberately conceived “migrant crisis,” orchestrated by NWO elites, the news out of Germany has been, to say the least, horrific.  Right before the eyes of the world, a country is being demographically destroyed through a coercive plan of mass migration.  The intended consequences of this – financial strain, widespread crime and property destruction, the breakdown of German culture – will continue to worsen if things are not turned around.

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Trump’s Trade War Will Trigger The Biggest Wave Of Automation in History / Politics / Robotics

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : War is coming—the signs are everywhere.

Last week, US and Chinese negotiators met in Washington to cap the 100-day dialogue that Presidents Trump and Xi promised at their April summit.

It didn’t go well.

The joint statement reported no new agreements, and both sides canceled their planned press conferences.

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

The Fed’s Monetary Tantrum Will Push The Economy Into Outright Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.

President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.